Read more analysis and commentary from scholars around the country on religion and the 2004 election.
Mark J. Rozell, Professor of Public Policy, George Mason University:
In 2000, turnout among the core constituency of the religious Right was a disappointment to the Republicans. Bush and his campaign people were very aware that they needed to mobilize those white evangelical conservatives who sat out the 2000 election. The effort this time was hugely successful and probably gave Bush his margin of victory. Bush spent four years cultivating the religious Right constituency. With Bush in the White House another four years and Congress more strongly controlled by the GOP, religious conservatives have much to celebrate. This might be the best opportunity ever for the movement's agenda to succeed.
For Democrats, the new slogan should be "it's the culture, stupid." The party has to find a way to bring back white evangelicals and churchgoing Catholics who have abandoned the party.
George Hunsinger, McCord Professor of Theology, Princeton Theological Seminary:
Our presidential election was, for much of the world, a referendum on the politics of deceit.
The administration did not tell the truth in leading our nation into war. It is deeply implicated in allegations of torture. It has bombed, and continues to bomb, densely populated areas like Fallujah, Tal Afar, and Sadr City, causing massive civilian casualties. Not least, it has perpetrated such enormities under the cover of pious falsehoods.
Only a twisted view of morality can have been at stake if "moral issues" mattered most to voters and were key to President Bush's win. The catastrophes that lie before us are now incalculable. We have sown the wind and will reap the whirlwind.
Stephen V. Monsma, Research Fellow, The Henry Institute for the Study of Christianity and Politics, Calvin College:
The fact that more people cited "moral values" as the most important issue in this election is astounding.
More cited this issue than cited war in Iraq, or the economy, or terrorism. I believe the reason for this -- and this is based on my intuition, not hard data -- is the same-sex marriage issue. The gay rights activists may have overreached themselves in pushing in the courts for same-sex marriage. Their doing so may very well have raised the visibility of cultural/social issues in many people's minds, leading them to go to the polls when they otherwise might not have done so and raising their level of concern over where our nation is going in terms of such issues.
The fact that almost 80 percent of those who cited "moral values" as their most important issue voted for George W. Bush suggests the extent to which Bush was helped by the high visibility of this issue. This 80 percent also no doubt overlaps with Protestants who reported attending church weekly, 70 percent of whom voted for Bush, and Catholics who reported attending church weekly, 55 percent of whom voted for Bush. Since about 40 percent of all Americans attend church weekly, the Democrats will have a hard time electing a president until they are more sensitive to the concerns of the churchgoing populace. There are ways they can do this and still largely maintain their liberal issue positions, but they must become much more sophisticated in doing so.
Mark D. Regnerus, Assistant Professor of Sociology, University of Texas at Austin:
The Democratic Party in the U.S. needs some housecleaning. They continue to alienate a large portion of the American electorate -- evangelical Protestants and traditional Catholics -- primarily by failing to moderate some of their socially liberal positions. We presently do not live in a nation where "it's the economy, stupid." As the exit polls showed yesterday, "it's moral values, stupid." Many American Christians are actually quite flexible about economic issues such as taxes and big- versus little-government arguments, much more so than either party realizes. They are also more flexible on stem cell research. It's obvious they are not flexible on gay marriage (nor are most Americans, religious or otherwise). However, such religious conservatives don't appreciate the treatment they get from the Democratic Party and their high-profile spokespersons. Bush speaks their language, as the exit poll numbers from white conservative Protestants revealed. In the end, America's religious conservatives are spooked by the left wing of the Democratic Party.
If Democrats want a shot in 2006 or 2008, the platform on social issues (e.g., abortion rights, gay marriage) has got to be moderated, shocking as that may sound to party members' ears. I believe the evidence suggests that pro-life Democrats would appeal to many religious conservatives, especially Catholics, but the Democratic Party continues to chew them up and spit them out.
Laura R. Olson, Associate Professor of Political Science, Clemson University:
The long shadow of Ronald Reagan looms large over Tuesday's election results. The political mobilization of evangelical Protestants that Reagan began has been the most important change in the past quarter century of American electoral politics. Reagan's appeal to evangelicals was primarily rhetorical; in the end, his administration did not deliver many concrete policy outcomes to the evangelical constituency. Yet the Reagan phenomenon led to a lasting political realignment, first in the Southeast (when he took millions of votes away from the devout Baptist Jimmy Carter) and later across the United States in rural communities. This political realignment has led many people of faith to view the Republican Party as the only party that takes its needs and concerns seriously. Karl Rove is well aware of this fact and made mobilizing evangelicals at the precinct level the centerpiece of George W. Bush's reelection strategy. Because President Bush is himself an evangelical Protestant, he is all the more able to stimulate loyalty and affection among evangelical Republicans. They clearly believe that Bush is one of them. In a stunning turn of events, the economy and the war in Iraq were less important to millions of voters than the nebulous notion of "moral values."
The Democratic Party needs to address the fact that it is no longer widely perceived as having a prophetic moral vision. Among many evangelicals, Democrats are seen as scornful, secular, urban literati who do not understand or appreciate their traditional lifestyles. For most of the twentieth century, however, this was not the case. Democrats were the party of social justice, fighting against racism and poverty in a way that squared well with the beliefs and orientations of many people of faith across the United States. The Reagan era swept this more liberal religious-political witness off of the political stage, and the "religious Left" in this country is flailing today. Left-leaning groups, including Sojourners, tried very hard during Election 2004 to encourage voters of faith to believe that "God is not a Republican." Yet Democratic candidates, including John Kerry, are not doing a good job explaining their political views in terms of moral vision. In his speech at the Democratic National Convention, John Edwards did speak briefly of the "immorality" of poverty, but this theme did not carry forward throughout the fall campaign. John Kerry's own public discussion of the relationship between faith and politics was consistently stilted and unclear. If they wish to succeed in future presidential elections, Democrats need to ask themselves how they can reach out to voters of faith with their own version of morality politics.
Robin W. Lovin, Cary Maguire University Professor of Ethics, Southern Methodist University:
Apparently, it's not the economy, anymore. If the exit polls are right, people are making their political choices in light of moral considerations. Perhaps they have always done so, even if the pollsters never thought to ask them about it until some specific moral questions became important in the 2004 campaign. Liberals who have characteristically built consensus for economic justice, public education, corporate responsibility, and even world peace by appeals to self-interest may have to think again about the moral foundations of justice and peace, if they want to regain a place in this part of the public discussion.
Of course, making a moral case for justice and peace might increase the polarization in society by mobilizing a new corps of intolerant social liberals to match the intolerant social conservatives who may have tipped the balance last Tuesday. It's not clear that a political system that tilts 51 percent to 48 percent toward the goals of intolerant liberals would be superior to the one we have, although I would probably be marginally more pleased with the results.
What might improve the situation would be new attention to the health of the discussion itself. We want to elect presidents who will represent our values and support legislation that will enforce our moral choices because we have no confidence in our ability to explain those choices to our neighbors or persuade them to see their moral universe as a place where we could live together. If there were forums for broad, public moral discussion in our religious institutions, universities, and local communities, we might not need to rely on a quadrennial barrage of attack ads and talk radio to try to get the point across. And if the issues that divide us culturally actually could be debated in the wider culture, then all of us, liberals and conservatives alike, might begin to hold politicians accountable for the problems that politics really can solve, instead of electing them as symbols of the values that we could represent better with our own lives and voices, closer to home.
Corwin Smidt, Director, The Henry Institute for the Study of Christianity and Politics, Calvin College:
Consistent with Karl Rove's strategy to energize and mobilize President Bush's base as a means to secure Bush's reelection, evangelical Christians did play an important role in shaping the outcome of the 2004 presidential election. However, in these initial days following the election, less has been made of another important factor in shaping that outcome -- namely, the Catholic vote. Over the course of the past several decades, the historic Democratic character of the Catholic vote has been dissipating. In the 2000 presidential election, exit polls revealed that 46 percent of Catholics had cast their [votes for] Bush. Not all of Rove's strategy, however, was to energize the base vote; the Bush-Cheney ticket also sought to "peel off" more Catholics from the Democratic coalition. Major efforts were made to court the Catholic vote, particularly among those Catholics who were the religiously faithful. This strategy also appears to have paid off, as the exit polls in 2004 revealed that 52 percent of all Catholics reported having cast their ballots for Bush -- an increase of 6 percent between 2000 and 2004 for Bush. And this is all the more remarkable given that Senator Kerry is a Roman Catholic. Clearly the level of Catholic support for Kerry stands in stark contrast to Catholic support given to Kennedy less than 50 years ago.


