Projections show no clear winner in Israel's election

Geoff Bennett:

Israelis turned out in record numbers for their first election since the October 7 terrorist attacks that launched the war in Gaza.

Amna Nawaz:

And, according to projections, opposition parties have won more seats in Parliament than the coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, potentially setting the stage for a change in government.

Nick Schifrin is live for us in Tel Aviv tonight -- Nick.

Nick Schifrin:

Amna, this is the headquarters for Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the opposition coalition. His party and his supporters are emphasizing that they, along with the Arab parties, won many more seats than Netanyahu's coalition. And Netanyahu's coalition lost many seats.

But, Amna, the bottom line is that this coalition does not appear to have a path toward forming a majority government after what many Israelis call one of the country's most consequential elections.

Tonight in Tel Aviv, the party that wants to unseat Israel's longest-serving prime minister says they have a mandate to change the country.

But 40 miles up the road in Jerusalem, Netanyahu's party is saying it won the most votes and there's no path to an opposition government. There are 120 seats in the Israeli Parliament, which means a coalition needs 61 to form a majority government. Netanyahu's coalition is estimated to have won 50 seats. Eisenkot's coalition is estimated to have won more, 53, but not enough to secure a majority.

Arab parties, who are anti-Netanyahu, have an estimated record 17, but it's unlikely that Eisenkot's coalition allies will agree to work with them. We have been traveling through the country in the lead-up to the election, and there is a widespread perception that this moment is historically fractious and the election existential.

Jonathan Barsade:

Doesn't matter what side of the political spectrum you're on. Israel is at a crossroads.

Nick Schifrin:

Jonathan Barsade is a dual American-Israeli citizen and the president of the nonpartisan America-Israel Democracy Coalition.

Jonathan Barsade:

These elections are going to determine what direction Israel is going to go and how Israel is going to look for the next 40, 50 years. That's a sentiment everyone -- they feel it.

Nick Schifrin:

He's helped lead the largest ever effort to bring Israeli expats back to the country to vote since Israel has no mail-in voting. Some 70,000 have returned.

Including Ruth Mekel, who's wise enough not to give her age. She flew here from New York to vote against Netanyahu.

Ruthie Mekel, Israeli Voter:

These are really critical, critical elections, historic elections, in order to prevent this government from ending the democracy and starting an orthodox religious way of life.

Nick Schifrin:

A few miles to the south, voting's a family affair for 3-year-old Michael...

Avshalom Seri, Rishon LeZion, Israel, Resident:

He's a good citizen.

Nick Schifrin:

... who helped his grandfather also vote against Netanyahu; 75-year-old Avshalom Seri says new leadership could bring peace.

Avshalom Seri:

I hope that we will come with different leaders, leaders that -- thinking for peace. We have children. We have grandchildren, and we think about them, the new generation. We fight so much. That's enough. The time for peace.

Nick Schifrin:

But Netanyahu and his supporters believe Israel's peace comes from his strength.

Woman:

This is the work of a genius.

Nick Schifrin:

And like a chess player, they argue only he has the strategy to take on Israel's enemies, and only he has the relationship with President Trump to finish the job in Iran.

Maor Vaknin, Likud Adviser (through interpreter):

With the help of God, in the next four years, Bibi will continue to do more things with Trump in the two years that Trump has left. We will solve this problem, which is called Hamas, Hezbollah, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and then we succeed in cutting off the head of the snake, as Bibi promised.

Nick Schifrin:

Forty-four-old Shimi Elias also brought his son Omri to vote. He usually votes for Netanyahu, but this year voted for Netanyahu ally, right-wing Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich.

Shimi Elias, Israeli Voter:

The government since the war, I'm happy with what they achieved.

Nick Schifrin:

Tonight, those divides remain, and a country hoping for a decisive decision once again faces uncertainty.

Amna Nawaz:

And Nick is back with us now from Tel Aviv.

So, Nick, without either side winning a majority here, what happens now, and specifically what does that mean for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu?

Nick Schifrin:

So, as you know, Amna, there will be a lot of horse-trading over the next few days and the next few weeks and perhaps even the next few months.

Perhaps the most likely outcome from the Eisenkot campaign, or at least the best outcome from them, would be what's known as a minority government. They would form a government with fewer than 61 seats. But, as we laid out in the piece, that would require collaborating with the Arab parties.

And inside of Eisenkot's coalition, that's already been rejected. Now, of course, in Israeli politics, a lot of things can be said before the election, and that changes after the election, but right now there's not a lot of popularity or support for the idea of getting Arab support to create that government.

Now, President Trump and his aides would like to see some kind of unity government, Netanyahu and Eisenkot working together. Eisenkot and every single one of the leading opposition party, the leading -- the leaders of the opposition parties, have absolutely refused that scenario.

So if there is no minority government, and if there is no unity government, then the perhaps the most likely outcome, Amna, is that political ambiguity, the political uncertainty that I just talked about, which is that Netanyahu stays prime minister, he would be a caretaker prime minister, and that we could even see multiple elections over the next few months, just like we saw five years ago.

And a lot of officials here are worried about that interim time, what Prime Minister Netanyahu might be willing or interested in doing alongside President Trump, especially when it comes to whether they restart the war in Iran, Amna.

Amna Nawaz:

It's an historic Israeli election. Nick Schifrin has been on the ground covering it for us all.

That is Nick Schifrin reporting live from Tel Aviv.

Nick, thank you.

Nick Schifrin:

Thank you.