Brooks and Capehart on the midterm results and what it means for Trump’s role in the GOP

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• Judy Woodruff:

  It's been a long week in politics after a historic midterm election night.

  To dive into what we can glean so far from voters' choices, we turn to the analysis of Brooks and Capehart. That's New York Times columnist David Brooks and Jonathan Capehart, columnist for The Washington Post.

  Hello to both of you. I guess you could call it an historic week, but they are still counting. We don't know all the numbers.

  But I — one thing we do know, Jonathan, is, President Biden did better than any president in terms of midterm vote in the last 20 years. How do you explain it? What do you think voters were trying to say?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Simple message. Voters are trying to say, we can walk and chew gum at the same time. We are more nuanced than you give us credit for. Yes, the economy is bad. We're not happy about it. But we're also not happy about the potential of a national abortion ban. We're not happy about the threats to democracy.

  I think that the American electorate chose democracy in this election. And I think the candidates who ran in their respective races ran the races that they needed to run in order to be successful. And in order for them to be successful, they had to pay attention to the people they wanted to represent.

• Judy Woodruff:

  What do you think the voters were saying?

• David Brooks:

  Yes, and I — over the last, I don't know how long, 10 years, we have seen a rise of global populism, both across Europe, I think in the form of Vladimir Putin and maybe Xi Jinping, and in this country in the form of Donald Trump.

  And I think what we have saw Tuesday night was the emergence of an anti-authoritarian populism majority; 60 percent of voters, roughly 60 percent said they have a low opinion of Donald Trump; 58 percent said they think MAGA is a threat to democracy.

  And so we now have a group. There's still going to be that MAGA movement.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Right.

• David Brooks:

  But, in my view, the electorate has built a wall around them, and one hopes in the — and with effect of making sure they will never get the kind of power they enjoyed under Donald Trump when he was in the White House.

  What struck me also — and this is related — was that performative populism, where everything is just a show, which Trump embodies, those kinds of candidates did poorly. And the kinds of candidates who did really well are just people who get stuff done. So, Mike DeWine in Ohio did very well, Josh Shapiro, Democrat.

  For me, the quote of the evening was from the guy who was elected — reelected governor of Wisconsin, Tony Evers. I think he said, boring wins.

  (LAUGHTER)

• David Brooks:

  And boring has not been winning much in American politics. But I'm happy to see, personally, boring winning.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Voters — did the voters surprises once again, Jonathan?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Oh, they certainly surprised me, but in a good way.

  I mean, in this business, we have been talking, because history shows that the party — the party in power of the president loses seats in the midterm elections. Everything was going that way.

  But every week, when there's a new poll came out, the one — and we talked about it around this table. I always went to the generic ballot. And that generic ballot seesawed one point to the Democrats or one point to the Republicans.

• Judy Woodruff:

  This is, are you likely to vote for a Democrat or a Republican?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Right. Who do you want to have it — who do you want to have in control?

  And for that to be so consistent for two years gave me the sense that this might not be the midterm election that we think it is. And what we ended up finding out, that it most certainly wasn't, and that, again, the American people are saying, we can walk and chew gum at the same time, and that those of us who do this for a living and including those armchair pundits out there, need to show some humility.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Yes. That's always the case for some of us.

  (LAUGHTER)

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Yes.

• Judy Woodruff:

  But, David, were you surprised, when it came down to it?

• David Brooks:

  I think I was.

  Well, what had happened was, two weeks before the race, or three weeks, the generic ballot really did move in favor of the Republicans. And there was a moment when it looked like, if that was going to continue to move, then Republicans will have a good night.

  But then, in the last two weeks, it just sort of — as Jonathan said, it just flatlined. And so the Republicans did not continue to make gains on that thing.

  And I think that was voters saying, we don't like the Democrats, but we — there was a good summary. They preferred a party that was sort of out of touch to a party that was out of their minds.

  (LAUGHTER)

• David Brooks:

  And so I was surprised, because, historically, when the when the president's approval is low, the party loses.

  But these were exceptional circumstances because of this authoritarian threat.

• Judy Woodruff:

  So, Jonathan, I mean, talking about Republicans, they now — it now looks as if they're all but certain to take control of the House, not by a big margin, but by at least a few seats. We still don't know about the Senate. That's right on the edge.

  What sort of a mandate the Republicans have in the House?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  I'm not sure.

  If they do get the majority, it could be as small as two seats. And then how does the Republican leader govern? And I'm wondering, what is their mandate exactly to do? Make permanent the Trump tax cuts? A national abortion ban? Any number — let's see. There's one more thing. Oh, take a hammer to Social Security, which is what Democrats were hammering them with in the closing weeks of the campaign.

  If that's what they — what their mandate, is that really what the country wants? And I don't think that, given the results we have seen, that that's what the country is looking for.

• Judy Woodruff:

  What do you — how do you see what the Republicans have been told by the voters?

• David Brooks:

  Yes.

  I sort of think mandates went out the window some decades ago. Nancy Pelosi had a five-seat majority. Did she try any less hard than if she had had a 100-seat majority? No. She's the speaker. So she gets to be the speaker. And if Kevin McCarthy is the speaker, he gets to be the speaker.

  What can they do and how will they behave? I think they want to do something on immigration. And it wouldn't be crazy for Democrats, if they can find something to pass, to take — that issue off the table a bit for them.

  Other than that, the investigations, which everyone is talking about, I think they'd be utterly crazy to have investigations first. There's one thing which is accountability. That's fine. What's happening on the border? What can HHS, should they be doing?

  But if they're just going to go after Hunter Biden, if there's one thing we have learned over the last 10 years, the American people are just sick of everything turning into scandal investigation. If Donald Trump is not laid low by scandal, then nobody's going to get laid low.

  And so I think that would just be a catastrophic mistake.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Immigration? Were you going to say…

• Jonathan Capehart:

  No, I — you reminded me. Immigration would be a great thing, if Republicans and Democrats could come together and do something about it.

  But the problem will be — and this all centers on who — let's say — let's just assume, just for this conversation, that Republicans regain the majority. The real contest will be, well, who's that leader? If it is — if it is current House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, in order to get the gavel, what concessions will he give to the House Freedom Caucus in order to secure enough votes?

  And the House Freedom Caucus is way out there. They're the ones who want to do these investigations. And so will Kevin McCarthy say yes to investigations in order to get the gavel? And that — that will tell us what the priorities are for a Republican-led House if he becomes the speaker.

• Judy Woodruff:

  And some of that's tied to the fortunes of Donald Trump, former President Trump, because, if he is seen — and some are saying he was hurt by these results, that a lot of his candidates didn't win.

• David Brooks:

  Yes. I have had…

• Judy Woodruff:

  So, where do you see that going?

• David Brooks:

  … many, many conversations over the last three days about Trump and DeSantis with Republicans. Will Republicans finally break with Trump? Do they see DeSantis as a brighter object?

  I still think Donald Trump is going to get the nomination, for this reason. If there are five other competitors, he only needs to get 33 percent in the primaries, and he will win it, which I think is — that's the most likely outcome.

  But you do — his decision this week to really take on DeSanct — calling him sanctimonious already — DeSantis.

  (LAUGHTER)

• Jonathan Capehart:

  It worked.

• David Brooks:

  Yes. No.

  (LAUGHTER)

• Judy Woodruff:

  Yes.

• David Brooks:

  I think that's just very foolish of Trump, because he's just elevating DeSantis.

  The final thing I will say is, we have the 2016 model in our mind that, if there's a normie Republican, they get crushed by Donald Trump. Why should a Mike DeWine, not that he's going to run, but why — normie Republicans did way better than the performative Republicans.

  So why should we always assume that a moderate, normal Republican has no shot at beating Donald Trump? I hope one of them gets in and tests this proposition.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  And speaking of normie Republicans, or Virginia Governor Ralph Northam, he's someone who could will most likely run, simply because he can't run for reelection to governor…

  (CROSSTALK)

• Judy Woodruff:

  You mean Glenn Youngkin. Glenn Youngkin.

  (CROSSTALK)

• David Brooks:

  Glenn Youngkin.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Glenn Youngkin.

  Who did I say?

• David Brooks:

  The last governor.

• Judy Woodruff:

  The last governor.

  (LAUGHTER)

• Judy Woodruff:

  Ralph Northam. It's OK.

  (CROSSTALK)

• Jonathan Capehart:

  My apologies, Governor Youngkin.

  But Governor Youngkin is one of those normie Republicans who will most likely run and, to my mind, might be a better candidate than Governor DeSantis.

• Judy Woodruff:

  So, I just want to be clear. We're using the word normie, as in — this is a David Brooks word, right?

  (LAUGHTER)

• David Brooks:

  No, this — I did not invent this. I think two generations below me invented that word.

  (LAUGHTER)

• Judy Woodruff:

  So, just quickly, if we still think Donald Trump's going to run, what about Joe Biden, after these elections?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Oh, he's totally running.

• Judy Woodruff:

  OK.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  I was convinced that he was going to run before the midterms.

  But if you're the president of the United States who is coming out of midterms with this result, with your party in this strong a opposition, why wouldn't you run again?

• David Brooks:

  Yes, I agree.

  He sort of expressed this to you a couple of weeks ago.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Yes.

• David Brooks:

  And then he was even more blatant, I think, this week, where he said, we want to run, and we — me and Jill want to run.

  So, yes, I can expect Joe Biden to run.

• Judy Woodruff:

  He was sounding pretty confident at that news conference on Wednesday.

  So, just last thing. I want to bring up the election deniers. They did well — I think we have — you have talked about this — in some parts of the country, but not everywhere. But we did see many losing candidates in both parties be gracious in their concession remarks.

  And I want to point both of you to — this was, notably, Ohio. This is Republican Steve Chabot, who has served many terms in Congress, defeated by a Democrat. And also in Ohio, Tim Ryan, the congressman who was running for senator, he lost to the Republican. But here's what both of them said.

  Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), Senatorial Candidate: I have the privilege I have to concede this race to J.D. Vance, because the way this country operates is that, when you lose an election, you concede.

  (APPLAUSE)

• Rep. Tim Ryan:

  You respect the will of the people, right? We can't have a system where, if you win, it's a legitimate election, and, if you lose, someone stole it.

• Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH):

  I'm just really very honored to have been able to serve this community as long as I did. It was the toughest Republican-held seat in the entire country outside of California. There were three tougher seats in California, but the other 49 states, this was the toughest.

  I thought we could overcome that. And we almost did. But we didn't. Mr. Landsman won fair and square.

• Judy Woodruff:

  David, that tells us something about maybe we're headed in a good direction.

• David Brooks:

  Yes, a return to normalcy, people being gracious and patriotic.

  I would say one of the big things about this election was, it really made it much less likely we will have electoral crisis in 2024. The — I saw a release from the Election Reformers Network of all the secretaries of state. And they're — with the notable exception of Arizona, where we don't know, it seems likely that people running the next elections will not be election deniers in almost every state — of the swing states, of the marginal states.

  That's just super important. And then Democrats did well in a lot of the — those Midwestern states in the state legislatures that could also be swing. So the elections look a lot safer right now.

• Judy Woodruff:

  How do you — I mean, after listening to those speeches, especially coming out of 2020, what does it say to you it?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  It — I feel relieved. It is a return to normalcy, but it's also a return to decency, and to hear Congressman Ryan say, it's a privilege to be able to concede. I ran. I lost. Congratulations to the victor.

  So that makes me happy. But I want to add one more, and I'm going to get it right this time. Governor Youngkin sent a handwritten note to Speaker Pelosi apologizing to her for what he said on the campaign trail in the closing days of the midterm elections after the attack on her husband.

  Who writes handwritten notes anymore?

  (LAUGHTER)

• Jonathan Capehart:

  I do.

  But it is a sign that — again, another sign to me that decency is making a comeback. And I hope more people who are in elective life follow those three examples.

• Judy Woodruff:

  So, when — so, what we have been talking about here at this table, there weren't as many election deniers elected as won, but some of them are going to be serving in office, David.

  And you — if you are right, and former President Trump's running for president the next time, then where does this…

  (CROSSTALK)

• David Brooks:

  Well, a lot of really matters whether Kari Lake wins in Arizona, because Arizona is a state where the governor has tremendous power over elections.

  And so she would be the epicenter of trouble if there was going to be trouble in 2024.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Well, we are watching Arizona. We're watching Nevada. And we will be, in early December, watching the state of Georgia.

  Thank you both, after this wild week.

  (LAUGHTER)

• Judy Woodruff:

  Jonathan Capehart, David Brooks, thank you.

• David Brooks:

  Thank you.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Thanks, Judy.

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