Capehart and Abernathy on Trump’s indictment and his hold on the GOP

Amna Nawaz:

It has been a historic week in politics, with former President Trump appearing in court and two members of the Tennessee state legislature being expelled from office.

For more on that, we turn now to the analysis of Capehart and Abernathy. That's Jonathan Capehart, associate editor for The Washington Post, and his fellow Post colleague Gary Abernathy. David Brooks is away tonight.

Welcome to you both. Good to see you.

Jonathan Capehart:

Hi, Amna.

Gary Abernathy:

Thank you.

Amna Nawaz:

Quite a week.

We saw former President Donald Trump enter a not guilty plea in a Manhattan court, go to Florida, deliver a fiery speech. He is running for president. He is raising money off of this, millions so far. And he has widened the gap, Jonathan, from his next closest potential contender.

Are these criminal charges going to propel him to the GOP nomination?

Jonathan Capehart:

Yes. Yes.

And I say that with confidence. I can see Gary nodding in agreement. And I say that because I have seen this movie before. In 2016, when everyone — everyone was saying, there's no way this guy can win, I started watching his poll numbers, particularly when he attacked now the late Senator John McCain, when he said what he — the horrific things he said about John McCain, and then his numbers went up within the Republican primary base, a party that loved the military and loves strength.

And yet they sided with a guy who attacked a war hero and a former prisoner of war. And so now that he's got one — been indicted by one jurisdiction, there might be others coming down the road, they're circling the wagons around him, because, for the Republican primary base, he is their guy. He is their avatar for all of their grievances and upset with the government.

I don't see how anyone takes the nomination away from him.

Amna Nawaz:

Gary, only Asa Hutchinson, only Asa Hutchinson, the former Arkansas governor who's also now declared he will run, has said that Trump has been indicted, he should step aside, we don't need this distraction.

Gary Abernathy:

Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

Why is he the only one?

Gary Abernathy:

Well, I think some of it is because there are real questions about this indictment.

I thought Ruth Marcus had a really good column this week in The Post talking about — and she's no — obviously, no Trump fan — what a high-wire act this indictment is. It's kind of — it's very flimsy. And I think that some of the circling the wagons around Trump is because this does seem like a rather politicized indictment.

I mean, it's — if I'm Joe Biden, I'm thinking, I beat Trump two years ago. I'm the president of the United States. What's everybody talking about? We're talking about Donald Trump.

Amna Nawaz:

Right.

Gary Abernathy:

And now, with the New York indictment, with possible indictments coming out of Georgia, with a January 6 investigation ongoing, he's guaranteed to be top-of-mind conversation for the next couple of years, not just because he's running for president, but because of these indictments.

And, frankly, while each one of these involves shameful acts by Trump, no doubt about it, I don't think any of them are probably going to result in criminal guilty findings in any case. And yet that's all we're going to be talking about.

(CROSSTALK)

Amna Nawaz:

Because we hear this a lot, so I want to just pull this out of it.

When you say it's politicized, what do you mean by that, the indictment itself?

Gary Abernathy:

Well, I mean, everybody seems to agree that there's just — there's not much there.

I mean, you're taking — for the first time, you're taking what are misdemeanor charges and trying to, as they say, bootstrap them into felonies by someone who campaigned on, hey, I'm the toughest on Trump, kind of I'm going to get Trump. That's what seems political about it.

Amna Nawaz:

I want to play for you just a couple of sound bites. I will get you in just a second, Jonathan, I see you wanting to jump in.

(LAUGHTER)

Amna Nawaz:

But we had a chance earlier today to listen in to a focus group of Republican voters. It was led by Republican strategist Sarah Longwell's group. Here is just a snippet of what a couple of those voters had to say.

It's Bobby from Texas and Katie from Michigan. Take a listen.

Bobby, Texas:

There's bigger charges that are out there that somebody could be arrested for. Now, if one of us probably did it, yes, I could understand.

But somebody at that level of authority like Trump was, I don't feel like it's necessary for that kind of situation.

Katie, Michigan:

He's a politician. Politicians do bad things. Everybody has skeletons in their closet. There's so many other people, Hillary and Obama and Biden and Hunter and all these other things, that — it's like there's such a fuel to hate Trump so much.

Amna Nawaz:

Jonathan, what does this say to you about how this investigation — you mentioned other investigations — how any of this will resonate with voters?

Jonathan Capehart:

I mean, I'm sorry. I'm just bracing myself after — after listening to that, because especially the young man who said, when you're at that level, maybe this shouldn't happen.

This is about accountability. And I disagree with you, Gary, that the charges brought by the grand jury are flimsy, that this is a politicized case, that, basically, what you're arguing is that this isn't worth doing.

And I argue and a lot of other people argue that just because you were a former president of the United States does not give you a pass on following the law. And, fine, you don't like Alvin Bragg's case against Donald Trump. Then I cannot wait to hear what you have to say when Fani Willis in Georgia presents, if she does, an indictment against people in the administration and maybe possibly Donald Trump himself, or what you say about Jack Smith and potential indictments there on the Mar-a-Lago classified documents case, but also the January 6 insurrection.

At some point, this man has to be held accountable for things that we saw him do with our own eyes.

Amna Nawaz:

Gary, this idea we heard from Bobby that, at that level, it shouldn't happen, that seems to say people think, well, some people should be above the law.

Gary Abernathy:

Well, and they shouldn't be.

But prosecutors decide all the time, is this a case I can win? And, again, legal experts seem kind of across the board to agree, this is a tough one to win. And do you bring a case like that against a president? You have to weigh everything. You have to be honest about the political environment, the reaction this is going to bring, and say, OK, if I have got a winnable case, I got to bring it.

But if I have got a case that most people are saying there's not much here, you got to question bringing it.

Amna Nawaz:

We have to move on. We're going to be coming back to this for several months, I promise you.

(LAUGHTER)

Amna Nawaz:

I do want to ask you about what we just reported on in Tennessee, because it was a big and unprecedented move, Republicans in the Statehouse there voting to expel two Democratic lawmakers, Justin Jones and Justin Pearson, both Black men.

They voted on a third you see there in the middle, Gloria Johnson, who's a white woman, but they did not expel her. They were expelled for breaking decorum by taking part in a protest calling for gun safety reform after six people were killed in a Nashville school.

Jonathan, what message does that expulsion send?

Jonathan Capehart:

I'm going to use some tart language right now.

I think the message that the Tennessee legislature sent to the state, to their constituents, to those young people who were demonstrating for their own lives, basically said to them: We don't give a damn about you.

Those young people came out to their state capitol asking for help days after a school was added to the list of schools that have had to suffer mass shootings.

Representative Gloria Johnson was in a school shooting. She knows why those young people are there. And so, for the Tennessee leg — the House of Representatives to strip Jones and Pearson of their seats, they're basically saying to Jones and Pearson's constituents: We don't care about you either.

Those people in their districts have no representative in the state legislature. So, I'm sorry. What should those folks think? They should think that the people who are there in the state capitol supposed — who are supposed to be there fighting for all of them, they just don't give a damn about them.

Gary Abernathy:

I'm not sure I would have voted to expel them, but I'm not sure it's so outrageous to do it.

No one's complaining, I don't think, about the other — the regular folks who were there protesting. When the legislators go down and protest with them, there's a decorum in the House or in any state legislature or in Congress. I don't like it when people shout out during a State of the Union address and break that decorum.

And when folks go down and participate against their own body, against their fellow members too, with the regular citizens that are protesting, I think that crosses a line that you say, as a leader, you have crossed the line against your fellow legislators in what you're doing.

Jonathan Capehart:

Expulsion. Expulsion. Gary, how about a slap on the wrist, censure, dock their pay, their debit card at the concession stand? I don't know.

But to remove them from office, that is so extreme. And we are in a time now where some other Republicans in other state legislatures will copy what was done in Tennessee.

Gary Abernathy:

I do think you have a line that you say, we expect this from our fellow members.

Now, again, I'm not — I don't think I would have voted to expel them either. I'm not entirely disagreeing with you on this one, Jonathan, but..

Jonathan Capehart:

It's the "I don't think" part.

Gary Abernathy:

But I don't it's completely outrageous, Amna, what they did. I think it's obviously within their rules to do it.

Jonathan Capehart:

We have seen this before, though, at the federal level, when the late — now late John Lewis, after a school — after a mass shooting, went to the well of the House of Representatives, flanked by fellow members of Congress, Democrats, and led a sit-in on the House floor.

And did the Republican speaker of the House — I mean, there was a lot of upset. They could have been arrested, but they weren't, because there was judgment. There was real leadership in the speaker at the time.

Amna Nawaz:

We are going to have to leave it there. But I guarantee you we will be talking about this again. I'm sure we will.

I thank you both for joining in the conversation, Gary Abernathy, Jonathan Capehart.

Gary Abernathy:

Thank you.

Jonathan Capehart:

Thanks, Amna.

Amna Nawaz:

Thank you.