Will the White House race change in a New York minute?

HARI SREENIVASAN:

Now, for more on today's Empire State primary, we're joined by Tamara Keith of NPR, who is in New York City tonight, and in Albany is Karen DeWitt, Capitol bureau chief for New York State Public Radio.

First, Tamara, let me start with you.

What are you looking for tonight?

TAMARA KEITH, NPR:

I'm looking for a margins of victory.

Donald Trump is in search of a clean sweep of delegates. And the only way he can get there is if he can get more than 50 percent of the vote. And on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is widely expected to win here. Bernie Sanders' campaign is sending around an e-mail talking about how, in 2008, she beat President Obama by 17 percent, which seems to be setting up a question of what the margin would be this time.

Sanders is expected to do better than that. He's expected to keep it relatively close. The question is just how close.

HARI SREENIVASAN:

Karen, how about you? What are you looking for as you look at the returns later this evening?

KAREN DEWITT, New York State Public Radio:

Well, yes, I would agree.

If Hillary Clinton doesn't do a 10 percent win better than Bernie Sanders, it's going to look bad for her, because she has the party establishment support here, the support of Governor Cuomo, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio. She was our senator for eight years, a very popular senator.

So, if she doesn't do a double-digit win, I think it's going to look quite bad for her. But I'm also looking at turnout. I mean, big turnout does help Bernie Sanders. It helps Donald Trump. And, you know, anecdotally, we have heard a lot about turnout being quite high almost everywhere, and particularly in a number of Upstate places, like Syracuse University, where there's a lot of students, who presumably support Bernie Sanders.

So that's another thing to be looking at as well.

HARI SREENIVASAN:

And, Karen, staying with you for a second, what about the demographics on the Republican side? Are Upstate voters in New York, Upstate Republicans, different than city slicker Republicans in Manhattan or the boroughs?

KAREN DEWITT:

Well, there are not very many New York City Republicans. There's very few of them. Their base is Long Island and Westchester and then Upstate.

Yes, they're not as conservative as national Republicans. I think that's why we have seen Ted Cruz hasn't done as well. They're kind of independent-minded people. I think that's why Donald Trump has really resonated with them as well.

HARI SREENIVASAN:

And, Tamara, these are candidates now that are focused on already next week's stuff. As we kind of looked at, Ted Cruz has turned the corner and left. John Kasich is in different places, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton. They're already looking to next Tuesday.

TAMARA KEITH:

Absolutely, because the primary moves on from here, though the Clinton campaign is also beginning to have this conversation where they say, we aren't asking Bernie Sanders to drop out of the race, but we are saying, it looks like Clinton is going to be the nominee, maybe Sanders should change the tone.

So the Clinton campaign really feels like New York turns a corner. The Sanders campaign doesn't agree, and they are planning to compete all the way through California on June 7. And they believe that he does have momentum and that he will continue to.

But the delegate math is a real challenge for Sanders at this point going forward into the states ahead.

HARI SREENIVASAN:

And, Tamara, staying with you, this is not a winner-take-all state, like we have had in several other contests. What happens as we get on both the Republican side of demographics, the Democratic side, without too much math?

TAMARA KEITH:

Yes.

So, on the Democratic side, like in every state, it's proportional, and so you can't really win huge in any state, but there are a lot of delegates at stake here in New York. On the Republican side, it's — if Donald Trump gets more than 50 percent, then there are some statewide delegates that he would get.

And then each congressional district, if you get more than 50 percent, it's winner-take-all. Otherwise, it's divided up.

HARI SREENIVASAN:

Karen, as you talk to voters over the past week, have the recent challenges that both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have faced, the idea that momentum might be shifting to other candidates, has that resonated with voters Upstate?

KAREN DEWITT:

Yes, one thing I would add is that it is — New York is — really has a closed primary, more closed than other states.

If you wanted to switch parties or join a party, you had to do it last October. If you're a new voter, you had to register by March. So I think what we're really seeing is a lot of people are disappointed because, if they were newly interested in the last two weeks, they're being left out of being able to vote in the primary today.

HARI SREENIVASAN:

And then what about that idea of momentum shifting in the past few weeks? Has that crossed the minds of the voters you have spoken with?

KAREN DEWITT:

I don't think so, really. I think, like, New York voters are focused on New York. We have seen the campaign be all about New York, specific to regions Upstate, to New York City.

All the candidates are here. And I don't think that certainly voters here are really thinking much beyond that at all.

HARI SREENIVASAN:

Are there any specific — Karen, are there any specific issues Upstate that are different from the ones that voters are facing in the cities?

KAREN DEWITT:

Well, you know, Upstate, it's a different world up here. It's more rural. You have all these are Rust Belt cities, where manufacturing has left.

And people are really discontent over the economy. And I think that both Sanders and Trump have resonated with these voters here who aren't feeling really good about their future. They see their children having to leave after college to get jobs. The jobs aren't here. So it really is kind of a different world.

And there's had to be at least two different campaigns, if not, as Tamara said, 27 different campaigns because of the 27 congressional districts, where they're having to compete in every single one of them.

HARI SREENIVASAN:

All right, Karen DeWitt, Capitol bureau chief for New York State Public Radio, and Tamara Keith of National Public Radio, thanks so much for joining us tonight.

TAMARA KEITH:

You're welcome.

KAREN DEWITT:

Sure thing.