NEW DELHI (AP) — Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling coalition is on track to win a key state election in a vote seen as a crucial test of the leader's popularity in one of the country's poorest yet most politically influential states.
Leads and partial results Friday from the Election Commission of India, the country's election watchdog, show the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, or NDA, headed toward a landslide victory in the 243-member legislature in the eastern state of Bihar.
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A simple majority to form the government is 122 while Modi's alliance was poised to cross 200-mark with BJP alone taking about 90 seats. The final counting was still on, but the leads were substantial.
A victory in Bihar, the country's third-most populous state with nearly 130 million people, is crucial as it sends 40 lawmakers — the country's fourth highest — to the 543-seat lower house of parliament.
Its control strengthens the party in power as the state is seen as a political bellwether, setting political trends across India's Hindi-speaking heartland.
This year, the two-phase election was held amid widespread public concerns over unemployment, law and order, and alleged irregularities in revision of electoral rolls.
Bihar matters for Modi
The election in the agrarian state was a crucial test for Modi as he sought to build momentum ahead of key state polls in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Assam over the next two years, and national elections in 2029.
The victory boosts the federal government, which has governed without a full parliamentary majority since last year's national election forced the ruling party to rely on regional allies.
Modi's party forged an alliance with Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party (Ramvilas) to form the federal government. These alliances are Modi's key partners in Bihar too.
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"It will give a great comfort to Modi to get Bihar under his belt. It will provide more stability to the government at the center," said Neerja Chowdhury, a political analyst.
Celebrations erupted in the state capital, Patna, with supporters waving party flags, dancing to the beats of drums and setting off firecrackers.
"This resounding public mandate will empower us to serve the people and work with new resolve for Bihar," Modi said on X.
Modi's alliance gets stronger
The BJP leads Bihar's ruling alliance, with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United) at the helm. Kumar, 74, has governed for nearly two decades, and is credited with improving the state's infrastructure and ending its law-and-order problems.
Once an opponent of Modi, Kumar later rejoined the BJP-led NDA.
There was apprehension that a loss in Bihar could split Kumar's party and threaten Modi's federal coalition, which relies on 12 of his lawmakers. Kumar's party was set to win a little over 80 seats.
"The victory renews Modi's and NDA's political capital. India can be reasonably optimistic about political and policy continuity," said Ashok Malik, analyst and India chair at U.S-based advisory firm, The Asia Group.
The opposition falters
The NDA's key opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal, which allied with the Congress and other smaller parties, performed poorly.
A new group, Jan Suraaj, floated by Modi's former poll manager Prashant Kishor, faltered too.
Before the elections started, the opposition led by Congress Party leader Rahul Gandhi denounced the state's revision of electoral rolls by the Election Commission of India, calling it politically motivated.
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Nearly 10% of the state's 74 million voters were removed from the lists since June, with opposition parties saying this disenfranchised poor and minority voters. The poll commission insisted the revision was needed in the wake of large-scale migration of laborers, young citizens becoming eligible to vote and non-reporting of deaths in the state.
The election outcome suggests the issue did not resonate widely with voters.
Women voters turn game changers
In September, Modi made a move to appeal to women voters, doling out cash transfers of 10,000 Indian rupees ($113) each to 7.5 million women as part of an employment program. Women form an important voting bloc as men largely migrate to metropolitan areas and bigger cities for work.
This was possibly the "game changer" for Modi and the team, said analyst Rasheed Kidwai.
He argued that the opposition overplayed issues of less relevance to voters, while Modi and his allies appealed to people's "hopes and aspirations."
"They have cracked the art of winning elections," he said.