3 reasons to watch Tennessee’s special election

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Fresh off the holiday weekend, we’ve arrived at the sixth special election in the House this year.

Live Results: Tennessee 7th Congressional District special election

It’s an interesting one. And good news: We are here to give you a cheat sheet.

Let’s do this.

Where is this special election?

Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. It reaches across 14 counties in central and western Tennessee, including portions of Nashville as well as some of the state’s most rural communities. This is a district that President Donald Trump won by 22 points in 2024.

Why is there a special election again?

The district’s former congressman, Republican Mark Green, resigned in July to take a job outside of government. (Fun fact: PBS News Hour featured Mark Green as part of a panel of brand new congressmen in 2018. Also in that piece: now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich.)

Why is this special election getting national attention?

A few reasons.

The timing. This race is being used as a barometer by both parties because of its timing just ahead of 2026. It’s a test of Republican enthusiasm in a district that the Grand Old Party should win easily. But, with Trump off the ballot, and with misgivings about the economy, are Republicans staying home? Or are they coming out in full force behind the MAGA movement?

The margins in the House. Republicans are spending millions on this race on their own home turf, and they have good reason. The race could significantly affect life for House Speaker Mike Johnson.

The House is currently 219-213. If this seat were to go Democratic, that figure would be 219-214. That may not look like much of a difference, but just wait.

READ MORE: Tennessee voters go to the polls in House special election testing Trump’s power

On Jan. 5, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., leaves office. If Democrats win in Tennessee today, Greene’s departure would then change the House margin to 218-214. Then, in late January, Texas holds a special election in a current Democratic district, with Democrats expected to win.

At that point the margin (again, under the condition Tennessee goes to Democrats) would be an incredibly tight 218-215. That is just a one-seat margin for Republicans and House Speaker Johnson.

Note: In the spring, we expect two more special elections: one in Georgia for Greene’s seat and another in New Jersey for the seat vacated by now governor-elect Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat. If those seats stay as-is, it will be a seat each for Republicans and Democrats, leaving intact whatever margin the Tennessee race today establishes.

The polls. A recent poll from Emerson College Polling/The Hill showed Democrats trailing in the special election by just 2 points. Both my Democratic and Republican sources say it does not reflect what they see internally. But the race is clearly closer than Trump’s 22-point margin in 2024. Democrats will be happy if they keep it within 10 points.

Who are the candidates?

The Republican is Matt Van Epps, an Army veteran who flew helicopters and went on to work in the Tennessee state government. He has the endorsements of both Trump and Green, the congressman he hopes to replace.

Democrats chose Aftyn Behn as their nominee. She is a relatively new state representative, elected in 2023, and a progressive activist whose energy is attracting attention.

When will we know the results?

The district tabulated rather quickly in 2024. If that pattern holds, 99% of the results should be counted by or near midnight on the East Coast. You can track results in real time here.

If one candidate has a clear, wide margin, the AP could call the race before most of the country goes to bed. If it is close, it could take much longer.