Cruz benefits from Wisconsin republicans’ unified front

MILWAUKEE — Republican Gov. Scott Walker dropped out the presidential race before the first contest of 2016, but his influence is still being felt in his home state’s primary contest.

Analysts say one reason anti-establishment candidate Donald Trump is trailing in Wisconsin’s polls is the strong bond Republican voters here feel with their elected leaders. That bond was forged during the 13 state senate and two statewide recall elections since Walker and the Republicans won the State Capitol in 2010.

“We have been through the wars, we have the scars to prove it,” said Charlie Sykes, an influential conservative radio talk show host who is rallying his listeners to vote for Sen. Ted Cruz in an effort to stop Trump. “There was a period back in 2012 where I think we had an election every six weeks. We have an electorate that is savvy, that is engaged, that is informed.”

Charles Franklin, the director of the respected Marquette Law School Poll, says the tumultuous 2011 State Capitol protests over Walker’s move to limit collective bargaining with most public employee unions rallied Republicans around him. “It means we have a more unified Republican Party,” he says.

As a result, Sykes and Franklin say, the endorsement of Sen. Ted Cruz by Walker — who, the Marquette Poll found, has an enviable 80 percent approval rating among likely voters in the Republican primary — is likely to carry some weight and Trump’s digs at him are likely to fall flat.

“When Donald Trump parachutes in and he starts insulting Gov. Walker and he starts saying he should have raised taxes, I just don’t think it’s going to play here the way it would have played in other states,” says Sykes, whose daily show is on Milwaukee’s WTMJ Radio.

So far this primary season, Trump’s success has been built in part on getting infrequent voters to the polls. But there aren’t many of those in Wisconsin, which prides itself on high turnout.

Nearly 40 percent of the state’s Republican vote comes from three suburban counties ringing Milwaukee: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington — dubbed the “WOW” counties. Turnout in each of those counties was at least 79 percent in the 2012 general election.

What’s more, Trump is hugely unpopular among those counties’ Republican voters, who tend to be better educated and wealthier than typical Trump voters in previous states. According to the latest Marquette Poll, 57 percent of likely Republican primary voters in that area said they had an unfavorable opinion of Trump while only 30 percent said they had a favorable opinion.

Analysts say that Walker may also being having an effect on the Democratic race, where polls show Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in a statistical tie.

Fractures in the party led many Democrats to stay home in the 2010 elections — the year Republicans won the governor’s office, both chambers of the state legislature and a U.S. Senate seat. That’s appeared to have had a healing effect in the party.

“It has unified the Democratic Party, bringing out their strongest supporters,” Franklin said. “It promotes the forces that would support Bernie Sanders and has made it a very competitive race.”