4 things to watch for in the first Democratic debate

At 9 p.m. EDT/6 p.m. PDT tonight, Americans will face a thick viewing menu with new episodes of “Scream Queens,” “The Voice,” “Storage Wars” and “NCIS: New Orleans.” (Request: could someone please tweet me the number of NCIS spinoffs, I am amazed and confused.) And of course the N.Y. Mets face the L.A. (formerly Brooklyn) Dodgers in game 4 of the National League Division Series. But there’s one show voters shouldn’t miss.

Why should you tune into the Democratic debate instead?

Two reasons. The Democratic race is already at a pivotal, defining juncture, much more so than the Republican race. And the dynamics are such that these candidates may be highly motivated to talk about significant policy, meaning there is a chance that tonight could be the most rigorous discussion of ideas and issues we have seen yet in this campaign cycle.

But then won’t it be boring?

No. We know this thought is out there in the politisphere. Real issues = boring. We reject that! And we believe a solid approach to watching will ensure a good, even great, experience for the entire two hours of debate time.

OK, so then how exactly should we watch?

First, logistics. The debate will be at 9 p.m. EDT tonight on CNN and the network will also stream it live on its website. NewsHour will live tweet the event; follow @NewsHour and @LisaDNews on the Twitter.

Things to particularly watch:

1. Clinton’s poise. Clinton is in a critical moment. I am tempted to put “critical” in all caps, but won’t. She has started to find a few inches of foothold, thanks to GOP House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s words about the Benghazi Committee (go to 4:20 in the video) and the beginnings of what may be a less defensive, yet still strong, tone. If she faces attack (see No. 3 below), watch for how she handles it. Can she avoid her danger zone, seeming to try too hard to be liked and sound tough while accomplishing neither?

Watch: Clinton’s interview with NewsHour’s Judy Woodruff was a potential turning point in her tone.

2. Sander’s intensity. Bernie Sanders is a man with a lot to say. He has proposed 24 significant pieces of legislation in the Senate this year alone, from sweeping labor law to student loan reform to dental reform. His debate style has been called “bulldog.” Tonight, watch for how he uses his intensity. Does he wait for key moments or does he come out assertively on every question?

3. O’Malley, Webb and Chaffee. One of these men, I predict, will have a standout moment, either positive or negative. If watching with friends, I suggest you place a friendly bet over which one will have that moment. (Prize suggestion: something valuable like arranging a personal brain fingerprint for them.) Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley knows he must be impressive, which of course can make it more difficult to be impressive. (Check out Tamara Keith and Amy Walter’s thoughts on that from our show yesterday.) He is the most likely person on stage to go on attack tonight. Former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb could break out on criminal justice or foreign policy. And Former Rhode Island Sen. and Gov. Lincoln Chafee is the wild card.

4. Words. Here are some words and phrases to watch for that have become noteworthy in the Democratic race. Note who says them and how often. Workers. Women. Minorities. Hispanics. African-Americans. Black lives. Middle Class. Health Care. Cadillac Tax. Trade. Guns. Justice. Compromise. Govern. Experience. Trump. Bush. Obama.

What are the candidates’ messages before the debate?

@HillaryClinton is tweeting about union workers and also tweeting back at Donald Trump about the debate.

.@realDonaldTrump Glad you'll be watching. It's going to be "huge."

— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) October 13, 2015

@BernieSanders seems to be aiming to please the gods of democracy with a philosophy and policy debate.

This campaign is about the needs of the American people, and the ideas and proposals that effectively address those needs. #DemDebate

— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) October 13, 2015

@JimWebbUSA is mostly retweeting the words of his supporters today, but did point out one particular article that casts him as the wild card tonight. (Though we still think Chafee is harder to predict.)

@GovernorOMalley, who at 52 is the youngest of the Democratic candidates, is emphasizing youth today with the endorsement of two young Iowa activists. See his press release on that here.

Lincoln Chafee is taking to instagram (@LincChafee) to look both serious and relatable, showing the two items he says he needs for debate prep.

My essentials for #cnndebate prep: coffee and newspaper. #chafee2016

A post shared by Lincoln Chafee (@lincchafee) on Oct 12, 2015 at 2:02pm PDT

That’s it from our room overlooking MGM Grand’s roof HVAC and garage. (We are sending it just to add some color. Don’t get us wrong, we are a grateful to be here and there is a nice view of mountains just past the roof.)

Thoughts? Comments? Let us know how we can improve and what interests you by emailing us at NHpolitics@newshour.org.

Thank you for reading.