Karl Rove and David Axelrod give their predictions for 12 key midterm races

Two of the chief architects of modern American politics, Karl Rove and David Axelrod, know a thing or two about midterm predictions.

PBS News' Lisa Desjardins sat down with Rove and Axelrod for a conversation around election security and the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. Watch part of the discussion in the player above.

Rove, the reviled and revered hardball strategist behind the George W. Bush years, and Axelrod, the Obama strategist behind Democrats' authentic-and-tenacious school of thought, sat down with me recently at the Economic Club of Chicago for a nearly hourlong conversation.

I asked them to give their takes on the list of competitive Senate races coming up, as laid out by the Cook Political Report. It was a fascinating kaleidoscope of thoughts. Here are some highlights.

Alaska

Incumbent: Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan

Rove: Was blunt. "I worry about Alaska."

Axelrod: Called it a "coin-flip," pointing out that Democratic candidate Mary Peltola previously came in first with ranked-choice voting. And Axelrod added that a negative article in The New York Times may have helped her.

Georgia

Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff

PBS News' Liz Landers talks with Amna Nawaz about the latest in Georgia's Senate race.

Axelrod: Ossoff is the least likely incumbent in a competitive race to lose their seat.

Rove: Did not mention this race.

Iowa

Open GOP seat

Axelrod: This, too, is a coin-flip.

Rove: Republican Ashley Hinson will win.

Kansas

Open GOP seat

Rove: Democrats will come up short in this race. But it is a race.

Maine

Incumbent: Republican Sen. Susan Collins

Rove: Collins will win.

Axelrod: More nuanced. He declared that the seat is in play and will be close. But, he added, Collins is a formidable survivor, and gave this hypothetical scene: "The world is going to end," he narrated. "It will be a pile of rubble and smoke. And then all of a sudden, two little hands are going to pop up. And a head. And it will be Susan Collins."

Michigan

Open Democratic seat

Lisa Desjardins discussed the Michigan race with strategist Joel Payne.

Rove: Indicated it is close, concluding, Republican "Mike Rogers has a good shot."

Axelrod: Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed will win, keeping the seat for the party.

Minnesota

Open Democratic seat

Rove: Is a believer in Republican and first-time candidate Michele Tafoya, whom he met the previous week, but stopped short of saying she will win.

Nebraska

Incumbent: Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts

Rove: "Pete Ricketts is going to win," he said, alleging that Ricketts' opponent, Independent Dan Osborn is "a phony." "Why are you talking about Ricketts that way?" joked Axelrod in an immediate retort.

North Carolina

Open GOP seat

They agreed: Democrats will flip this seat being vacated by Sen. Thom Tillis.

Ohio

Incumbent: Republican Sen. Jon Husted

Liz Landers reports on how national issues are affecting Ohio voters as they prepare to head to the polls.

Axelrod: Ohio's former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown should win. Though, Axelrod he said, he is concerned that Brown could be painted as establishment.

Rove: Another race where he is "worried" for Republicans.

Texas

Open GOP seat

Liz Landers reports on what makes Texas' Senate race so competitive this year.

They agreed: Democrat James Talarico would win at that point, in a close race.

Axelrod: Called it another coin-flip, but "Talarico is one of the most talented candidates running this year," he said, "running against perhaps the worst candidate in the country," meaning Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Rove: If the election were held now, Talarico would win. But, he added, "the race has tightened a little bit" as voters have been reminded of Talarico's more controversial statements, including about gender. To Rove, the question is: "Will Paxton debate? If he doesn't debate, I think he loses."

South Carolina

Open GOP seat

Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on the GOP's vulnerability in the midterms

Rove: "It's a hope for Democrats," he said, "but it's not real."

Axelrod: Did not mention South Carolina as he went through the list.