Could North Dakota decide the GOP nomination?

FARGO, N.D. — Typically, North Dakota isn’t much of a player in national politics. But as Wisconsin readies itself for a hotly contested Republican primary on Tuesday, a far different battle is taking place in Fargo this weekend — one that could help determine the GOP nomination at the Republican National Convention in July. And it won’t involve a single traditional ballot.

The state’s Republican Party opted not to hold a primary, caucus or presidential preference vote of any kind. Instead, party activists, donors and other insiders convened here on Friday for a three-day state convention to elect 25 delegates to the national convention this summer.

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The delegates will be unbound, meaning that they will be free to support whomever they want in the first round of voting at the convention.

And the buzz surrounding the weekend’s events in Fargo was unusual for a state that has just three electoral college votes, and is rarely thrust into the spotlight during presidential elections.

Sen. Ted Cruz took a break from campaigning in Wisconsin on Saturday to fly to North Dakota to make a direct appeal to the state’s convention goers. Ben Carson, who endorsed Trump after dropping his own presidential bid last month, is scheduled to speak at the state convention on Sunday. The Kasich campaign sent a top surrogate, former New Hampshire Sen. Gordon Humphrey, to speak.

Unbound delegates from North Dakota and other states could play a critical role at the national convention in Cleveland if Trump, the Republican front-runner, fails to win the 1,237 delegates needed in the primaries to clinch the nomination.

“At this point there are two candidates, and only two candidates, with a plausible path to win the Republican nomination,” Cruz said to a crowd of several hundred people at the convention on Saturday. “If we nominate Donald Trump, it hands the general election to Hillary Clinton with a big silver bow.”

Cruz added, “It is entirely possible that the men and women gathered here will decide the entire nomination.”

The appearances by Cruz and Carson underscored the campaigns’ desire to win every possible delegate in a fight that has turned into the closest Republican race since 1976, the last time the party held a contested convention.

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Trump named a delegate expert to his team earlier this week, in a signal that he is preparing for the possibility of a contested convention this year.

After Cruz spoke, party activists nominated a slate of delegates to the national convention. A final vote will take place on Sunday. (The state will send a total of 28 delegates to Cleveland; the 25 chosen this weekend and three unelected slots that go to high-ranking officials).

The vote could grow contentious. A split has emerged between veteran party leaders who want to select a national delegation committed to Cruz, and newer activists who support Trump.

But the Cruz campaign has spent the most time cultivating support in the state, and a majority of the delegates elected to the national convention will likely back him over Trump, several sources said.

Nevertheless, the delegates who will be elected are not required to disclose their vote before the RNC, making it difficult to determine exactly which way they will lean.

And because their preferences are kept secret under the rules, the party activists picking the national delegates will be forced to vote blindly, and hope that the group they send to Cleveland supports the candidates they like best.

“We don’t know” how the RNC delegates will vote in the end, said Diane Arstein, an elementary school teacher from Rolette.

Party activists at the North Dakota state GOP convention this weekend in Fargo. Photo by Daniel Bush

Arstein, who is voting for the national delegates, said she would cross her fingers that a majority of them wind up backing Cruz. “He’s a much more unifying force than Donald Trump,” Arstein said.

When Cruz was asked by a reporter, after his speech, how many delegates he expects to pick up in the state, he declined to make a prediction. “That’s going to be up to the people of North Dakota,” Cruz said.

North Dakota held a GOP primary or caucus vote in the past several presidential elections, and its national delegates have traditionally been unbound.

But the Republican National Committee announced guidelines ahead of the 2016 race that required the state’s delegates to pledge themselves to a candidate ahead of the RNC. The state Republican party opted last year not to hold a vote at all in order to send unbound delegates to the convention, said Roz Leighton, the party’s executive director.

“I never thought that we would have this much contention or that people would care this much about 28 delegates,” Leighton said.

North Dakota traditionally plays a minor role in national politics, said Nicholas Bauroth, a political science professor at North Dakota State University. Because no primary polls have been conducted in the state so far, he said, “you don’t know if this is a Trump state or a Cruz state or whatever.”

North Dakota has voted for Republican candidates in the past ten general elections. But it has experienced unprecedented economic growth in the past decade, thanks to a boom in oil and natural gas development, and many GOP voters here seem to feel less concerned about the direction of the nation’s economy than conservatives in other states.

Unemployment in North Dakota is under 3 percent, well below the national average. Housing prices have remained steady and even increased in recent years in Fargo, Grand Forks and other growing cities on the eastern end of the state.

“All during the time when the rest of the country was down and in the dumps, a lot of the stuff that is producing this pro-Trump movement did not occur here,” said Robert Wood, a political scientist at the University of North Dakota.

Things started to change last year, after oil prices fell below $40 a barrel. Out-of-state workers who flocked to the state to work in the oil and gas fields have begun returning home, Wood said.

The state is now facing potential budget cutbacks.

Still, many residents expressed optimism about the state’s future — and said they don’t fit into the category of Trump voters who feel that they have been left behind economically during the Obama years.

Economic growth “is at a plateau right now, but the feeling isn’t that we’re doomed,” said Arlene Melarvie, a retired banking executive from Bismarck.

Melarvie, who is a delegate to the state convention, said she was backing Cruz and hoped that the state’s national delegates would do the same. “He’s level headed,” she said. “Trump is still a little bit of a loose cannon.”

Some state delegates said they back Trump, and hope he wins the nomination.

“Trump cares about our country,” said Bonnie Rowell, who lives in Valley City. “Cruz has tried to fight the establishment but he hasn’t gotten very far. That’s what worries me a little bit.”

Despite Cruz’s popularity among party insiders, many said they were preparing for a long round of voting on Sunday. And several criticized the state Republican party for deciding not to hold a caucus or primary.

“Why would the party want to deny the people a vote?” said Bill Gackle, a farmer, former state legislator and self-described “Cruz man.” “It’s undemocratic.”

Leighton, the state party’s executive director, defended the process. “At the end of the day, these national delegates are chosen by the people,” she said. “I don’t know that [everyone] will be happy about it, but it’s the way the rules work.”