What happens next in Maine and the battle for Senate control

After a twisty-turny month in Maine politics, the uncertain fate of the Senate race — and perhaps the Senate itself — may be written in the weeks to come.

Democratic nominee and oyster farmer Graham Platner says he is withdrawing from the race after months of navigating scandals about his past. That includes a rape allegation from a woman who told Politico that Platner sexually assaulted her in 2021 while he was intoxicated. Platner denies the allegation as inaccurate.

After calls for him to step down poured in, Platner said in a video message on X that the process to replace him on the ballot should be "open, transparent and democratic."

"It needs to be reflecting the will and the values of the people that built this movement," he added, while also stressing that his withdrawal wasn't an admission of guilt.

Maine Democrats are under a time crunch to select a new candidate before a July 27 deadline.

While much is unknown about what happens next, here's a look at how Maine fits into the battle for the U.S. Senate and how the landscape is shifting.

The current balance of power in the Senate

At the moment, Republicans control the upper chamber:

• GOP has 53 seats.
• Democrats have 47 seats, including two independents who caucus with them.

To take over, Democrats need a net of four more Senate seats.

Which seats are competitive?

According to The Cook Political Report with (friend-of-the-newsletter) Amy Walter, nine Senate seats are the most competitive.

• Democrats are defending three competitive seats: In Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.
• Republicans are defending six competitive seats: In Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.

A year ago, the possibility that Democrats could somehow flip four competitive seats seemed unlikely. It remains difficult, but not impossible.

Trends are shuffling Democrats' way

Recent trends have blown in Democrats' direction.

The race for Sen. Dan Sullivan's seat in Alaska is now rated a toss-up. North Carolina is now expected to be a flip for Democrats, after they recruited their top candidate: former Gov. Roy Cooper.

Democrats are also hopeful about former Sen. Sherrod Brown's chances of reclaiming an Ohio seat. Polls show anyone can win there, a remarkable development after the state's recent red streak.

That makes for three potential flips for Democrats.

But they need four

That leads us to Maine.

Republican Sen. Susan Collins has proven as tough to dislodge as the granite dotting her state's beautiful coastline. She is a hard-working campaigner who spends the year in contact with mayors, school board members and other constituents in her state.

But the latest New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll (conducted in late June before the sexual assault allegation against Platner) showed Platner and Collins in a "near tie."

With so much riding on the race, Democrats didn't want to lose the chance to replace him on the ballot. Under Maine law, Platner needs to formally withdraw from the race by July 13, and then the state's Democratic Party has until July 27 to pick a new nominee.

Exactly who that is will be decided by 600 party delegates at an upcoming nominating convention, according to a Maine Democratic committee vote on Wednesday. The full details and timing of the convention have not been released yet, though party leadership pledged a transparent process.

For Republicans, Platner's woes had become a beacon of hope that tried-and-true candidates, like Collins, would survive in a year when Democrats are weighing appealing-but-not-energizing moderates and bold-but-untested candidates from further left.

As the new matchup takes shape this summer, remember: As Maine goes, so may go the Senate.

PBS News' Joshua Barajas and Molly Finnegan contributed to this report.