What to watch for on California’s big primary day

Democrats are counting on making gains in California to help retake control of the House, but the state’s unique primary system could block the party from competing for critical seats in November.

The first and second-place finishers — regardless of party — in California’s so-called “top-two” primaries Tuesday will advance to the general election this fall, setting up the likelihood that some November races will pit candidates from the same party against each other.

Heading into the primaries Tuesday, Democrats were concerned that the large number of Democratic candidates running in some House races could splinter the state’s liberal base, allowing two Republicans to finish first and second and move on to the general election.

For their part, Republicans worried that they will be shut out of the general election Senate race against Democratic incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein, as well as the open gubernatorial race. That happened in 2016, when Democrats Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez received the most votes in the primary, shutting Republicans out of the contest.

“If there are any shutouts, that would certainly drive the conversation,” said Eric McGhee, a research fellow at the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. “If I were either party, frankly I’d be trying to plan to avoid that.”

Democrats are hoping to avoid that outcome, especially in GOP-controlled House districts that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. California is home to seven of those districts, and two of them are open, after GOP Reps. Ed Royce and Darrell Issa announced their retirements earlier this year.

The primaries have also underscored how far the state has shifted to the left in recent years.

In California, “the Republican party has just fallen off a cliff,” McGhee said. Californians with “no party preference” outnumber Republicans in the state, and while independents lean conservative, “ the voting habits of Californians have reflected the notion that the GOP is struggling” in the state, McGhee added.

Here’s what to watch for on Tuesday:

Orange County

Democrats are confident that a trio of districts in Southern California’s Orange County are poised to flip from red to blue. All three went to Clinton in 2016, and a combination of demographic shifts, enthusiasm on the left, and contested seats make these districts ripe for change.

The open 39th congressional district — an area east of Los Angeles that Clinton won by eight points — is ground zero for Democratic infighting this cycle. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had to convene the two frontrunners — Gil Cicneros, a veteran, and health insurance executive Andy Thorburn — and make them agree to stop attacking each other so vehemently. The pediatrician Mai Khanh Tran, who was endorsed by Emily’s List and was reportedly pressured by the DCCC to drop out of the race, also has a chance in the crowded field.

Republicans have also fielded several formidable candidates in the race, including former state senate minority leader Bob Huff and Young Kim, a former state assembly member and former aide in Royce’s office.

Four Democrats are vying to take on Republican Rep. Mimi Walters in the 45th congressional district, which includes the cities of Irvine and Mission Viejo. Two University of California, Irvine professors, Katie Porter and David Min, are seen as the frontrunners. The California Democratic Party endorsed Min, but Harris and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., endorsed Porter, highlighting the inter-party rivalry in the state. Although the House seat has never gone blue, Clinton narrowly carried the district in 2016. Walters has largely stuck with President Donald Trump’s agenda, voting to repeal the Affordable Care Act and for the tax bill.

Lastly, the 48th congressional district around Huntington Beach, long-held by Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, is being closely watched by both Republicans and Democrats. It’s viewed as the most likely primary to result in a GOP-only general election, thanks to a strong challenge by Republican Scott Baugh, a longtime friend of Rohrabacher’s and a former Orange County Republican chairman.

“Voters will go in and recognize the incumbent, Rohrabacher,” McGhee said. “The better Rohrabacher does against Baugh, the less likely it is to have a same-party Republican runoff.”

Clinton won the district by one point in 2016, though Democrats are hoping that Rohrabacher’s vocal pro-Russia views will rub voters the wrong way. At one point a whopping 16 Democrats ran for the seat, though some have by now dropped out of the race. The frontrunners are Harley Rouda, who was endorsed by the DCCC, the House Democrats’ campaign arm, and stem cell scientist Hans Keirstead, who has spent the last weeks of the campaign fending off rumors that he slept with one of his former graduate students.

For Democrats to win this race in November, they’ll need to equal or exceed the party’s voter turnout from 2016. If that happens Tuesday, it would signal that the “political complexion of [longtime Republican] districts has changed,” McGhee said.

Immigration

California is home to nearly 700,000 protected by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program — the highest of any state in the nation. In recent weeks, vulnerable California Republican incumbent Rep. Jeff Denham has led the moderate House Republican effort to file a discharge petition to bring immigration bills to the House floor for debate, including a bill that would codify protections under the Obama-era program, known as DACA, that shields young people who entered the country illegally from deportation. Trump moved to end the program last year, but it has remained in limbo as legal battles continue in the courts. Denham’s support for protecting DACA provisions could appeal to some Republicans in the state, especially younger voters who are turned off by Trump and many GOP lawmaker’s hardline anti-immigration views, McGhee said.

It will be interesting to see how the issue plays out in Denham’s Central Valley district, which is 40 percent Hispanic. Denham won reelection in 2016 by three points — the same as Clinton’s margin of victory in the district. Five Democrats are challenging Denham, who won his seat in the 2010 Tea Party wave, including a former beekeeper, mayor and venture capitalist.

The governor’s race

The Democratic front runners in the governor’s race are two former mayors of California’s two biggest and arguably most liberal cities. There is not much daylight on the issues between former San Francisco mayor and current Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, and former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Still, Newsom entered Tuesday as the favorite to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown. The top Republican candidate, businessman John Cox, has a chance to finish second and make it to the general election.