A look at the New Jersey governor’s race and its national implications

Geoff Bennett:

New Jersey is one of only two off-year gubernatorial races this fall, and it's seen as a bellwether ahead of next year's midterms.

As William Brangham reports, after President Trump made inroads with some voters of color in the last election, they have continued to be a major focus for both candidates in this close race.

William Brangham:

Outside MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, football fans are hyped for a fierce cross-state rivalry, the Philadelphia Eagles against the New York Giants.

Among the crowd is Republican gubernatorial hopeful Jack Ciattarelli, an equal opportunity campaigner.

Jack Ciattarelli (R), New Jersey Gubernatorial Candidate: Go, birds.

William Brangham:

This former state legislator narrowly lost the last governor's race four years ago to incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy. This year, he's hoping to build on President Trump's surprisingly strong showing in the state in 2024 and focusing on the cost of living.

Jack Ciattarelli:

Property taxes, electricity bills, housing, and childcare for families with young children, we got to fix all that across New Jersey. It's becoming unaffordable, and the middle class is getting crushed.

William Brangham:

That message is also central for Ciattarelli's opponent, Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill.

Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), Gubernatorial Candidate: For too long, we have just seen prices going up and up and up. As someone who served this country my entire life, I now want to fight incredibly hard for families here in New Jersey.

William Brangham:

Sherrill is a former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor who won a seat in Congress in a swing Northern New Jersey district during the blue wave election of 2018. And like she did back then, she's hoping to make President Trump a key issue in this campaign.

Rep. Mikie Sherrill:

People are furious that Trump's tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill are driving up their cost. That is really angering people across the state.

William Brangham:

While Donald Trump lost New Jersey last year, he dramatically improved his numbers compared to his last run.

Nowhere was that swing more dramatic than here in Passaic County, and this reflected a larger national trend for Trump. This county has the largest share of Latinos anywhere in the state, and Trump boosted his margins here by 19 points, making him the first Republican to win this county since the early 1990s.

Angel Castillo runs El Primito in Passaic, a Dominican restaurant started by his family more than 30 years ago. Once a Democrat, now a Republican, he supports Ciattarelli. He says the high cost of utilities, which has nearly doubled for his restaurant, is squeezing his bottom line.

Angel Castillo, Jack Ciattarelli Supporter:

I always tell people, we always like the same, and we expect different results. And, to me, it's like, let's give somebody else a try.

William Brangham:

Ciattarelli visited El Primito in August, part of his push to capitalize on Trump's inroads with minority communities. Castillo immigrated from the Dominican Republic as a kid and voted for Trump last year.

Some people are a little concerned about Trump's immigration policies, grabbing people off the streets, sometimes people who are here legally. Does that bother you at all?

Angel Castillo:

It doesn't bother me because I have people approach me like, oh, how can you still like Trump?

I go, listen. I believe every country has the right to enforce its laws. That's what I believe.

William Brangham:

Ciattarelli sees Trump's immigration policies as part of his pitch to voters.

Jack Ciattarelli:

He did his job in securing the border. I will make New Jersey more secure by not having sanctuary cities or us being a sanctuary state that encourages illegal immigration, and we don't want to handcuff our local police in any ways.

William Brangham:

Just a few miles from Angel Castillo's restaurant, Maria del Pilar Rivas has been pounding the pavement for Mikie Sherrill in the heavily Latino neighborhoods of Paterson.

Pilar Rivas immigrated from Peru when she was 18 and has been a longtime Democrat.

Maria del Pilar Rivas, Mikie Sherrill Supporter: I believe in her as a woman, as a mother, as a woman who works hard for the people. And each time when she talks, you can feel it.

William Brangham:

She says lower taxes and the cost of living are important, but says Trump's masked ICE agents have gone too far, arresting more than 3,000 immigrants in New Jersey this year.

Maria del Pilar Rivas: Not everybody is a criminal. It's also hardworking people. They came to this country for a different life. So he has to make a difference between criminals and hardworking immigrant people.

David Orozco, Brisas Restaurant and Bakery: We're open seven days a week.

William Brangham:

Brother and sister Kimberly and David Orozco say the Trump administration's actions on tariffs and on immigration have taken a toll on their family's Colombian bakery and restaurant in Elizabeth, another heavily Latino city in Northern New Jersey.

Kimberly Orozco, Brisas Restaurant and Bakery: The first few months were a ghost town here. No one was coming in. People maybe never came back. And it's about that fear. Thankfully, we have been here for many years, but our neighbors are closing. Our neighbors are closing.

David Orozco:

I think a lot of it has to do with the immigrant mentality of, well, we might go out and something might happen, even if you're here legally, just because you might be profiled in a certain manner.

William Brangham:

Mikie Sherrill visited the Orozcos' restaurant as part of her push to reach Latino voters.

Do you think that the president's enforcement actions, the aggressiveness of those actions is going to play out in this state, in this campaign?

Rep. Mikie Sherrill:

I think people are very concerned about whether agents are following the law and the Constitution. They're hearing about raids where there are no warrants. They're hearing about kids coming home from school and no parents being there. That is really upsetting people.

William Brangham:

Polls show Sherrill with a single-digit lead, but that is tightened over the last month. In recent weeks, Trump's attacks on blue states during the shutdown have also added a new wrinkle to this race.

Donald Trump, President of the United States: It's terminated.

William Brangham:

The president says he's eliminating billions in funding for a massive rail tunnel project connecting New York and New Jersey that is already under construction.

Rep. Mikie Sherrill:

Such an important project, and my opponent tried to kind of play it off, saying, oh, that's not a New Jersey problem. I thought that was shocking. I think it's a complete lack of connection to the community.

Jack Ciattarelli:

I think the president is just doing right now what he has to do, which is tough negotiations.

William Brangham:

But many voters remain focused on their more immediate financial concerns.

Giants fan William Spann approached Ciattarelli with his worry about just making ends meet.

William Spann, New Jersey Voter:

My question was, what can you do for the middle class?

William Brangham:

Spann is a truck driver and says he's still not sure who he will vote for. But he says some of Trump's actions have hurt his finances.

William Spann:

Right now, it's so bad for us out there. And that's all because this trade stuff and all this other stuff that's going on. It's hard for us to make our money. You're putting us at risk, yet alone, you OK. You know why? Because you got billions. But yet what about the middle class?

William Brangham:

Inside the stadium, the underdog Giants pulled off an upset, blowing out the visiting Eagles 34-17. But the race between Ciattarelli and Sherrill will likely be a lot closer.

For the "PBS News Hour," I'm William Brangham in New Jersey.