A Neighborly Meeting

RAY SUAREZ:

On Mexico's new president, Vicente Fox, we turn to Rafael Fernandez de Castro, professor of international relations at the autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico, known as Itam, and a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution; Rossana Fuentes-Berain, managing editor of Foreign Affairs En Espanol, a quarterly journal on Latin America affairs; and George Grayson, professor of government at the college of William and Mary.

Well, it's been just over a year since the election, a little less than a year since the inauguration. Rossana Fuentes, how is he doing?

ROSSANA FUENTES-BERAIN:

I think that President Fox has been able to ascertain a very clear leadership after this election in terms of having the possibility of guiding the country towards a peaceful transition after seven decades of very authoritarian regime. That's on the good side. On the bad side is that we don't have a clear idea as to where he's taking the whole transition to.

RAY SUAREZ:

Professor Fernandez?

RAFAEL FERNANDEZ DE CASTRO:

Well, I believe that yes he's been in office for nine months, he informed congress last Saturday of what he's been doing in the last nine months. Well, he hasn't accomplished many things, but what is important to be reminded that he has been able to bring a new democracy to Mexico in an orderly fashion; nothing has happened in Mexico, which is very important. And I guess now for him it is to focus on accomplishments — and not only domestically, but also international affairs — that's why we were listening to him this morning saying that he wants an immigration agreement this year. So then in four years, that is the U.S. presidential term, or six years, which is his term, every single Mexican migrant would be legally here in the United States. That is what he had in mind and seems to me that will be the most important accomplishment of his administration in foreign policy. He has made migration at the top of his agenda.

RAY SUAREZ:

Professor Grayson, your assessment of President Fox?

GEORGE GRAYSON:

Well, he's a breath of fresh air. He's brought change to the country. He still enjoys a honeymoon, both in the United States and Mexico. I've been disappointed, though, by the slowness of his ability to put together a governing pact. He hasn't yet unified his own political party, the National Action Party. And before he can bring unity, before he can get his major programs passed through Congress, he has to consolidate the power of his own party and also reach out to the opposition, which I believe has majorities in both houses of the Congress. He has some extremely important bills hanging in the fire, tax reform, having more investment in the energy sector by private capital — and also a labor reform. And unless he gets some of these major reforms passed, I'm afraid we're going to have many more good intentions than we are accomplishments.

RAY SUAREZ:

Well, some critics in Mexico say that one thing has been no shortage of is proposals, since President Fox took office. Is Professor Grayson right about whether or not the president can pull these over with the governing coalition he's got?

ROSSANA FUENTES-BERAIN:

I think that he needs to concentrate more on that governing pact that Professor Grayson was referring to. And I think that taken from the state of the union address, which he gave this week, and the answer from the opposition party, now the PRI is an opposition party, the one that ruled for seven decades, Mexico is sitting on the other side of the fence. I think that the way that this was answered gives us hope that they will sit down and concentrate on the next stage of democracy, which is having things done.

RAFAEL FERNANDEZ DE CASTRO:

I guess he truly has to rearrange his relations with his own party, with PAN, the conservative party. I guess he's in the way of doing that, he met with them two weeks ago for a whole weekend and apparently things are shaping up there. That will be his major task in the coming months. He has to achieve this fiscal reform, he has to achieve the region reform and of course he doesn't have much time. He has a problem, though; the economy in Mexico is not doing well and that is a reflection of the slowdown of the U.S. economy. Mexico is tied to the U.S. economy now because of NAFTA, and we've benefited from the U.S. economy booming the last five to six years. So now is the hard times, and this has coming at the beginning of his administration.

RAY SUAREZ:

The slowdown in the United States is, I guess everybody would agree, kind of beyond his control. Will he get a little more time to regroup and come up with a political strategy, given the enthusiasm around his new arrival in office — more of a break than another Mexican president might have?

RAFAEL FERNANDEZ DE CASTRO:

It's hard to tell, because he ran his campaign making a lot of promises and expectations were very high in Mexico, and still with the president elect expectations were very, very high. He was talking about change, and Mexicans, we Mexicans are expecting change, and change is coming slow in Mexico. At least and that is the good part, you consider the transparency in the Mexican government, you see plurality there, you see finally the Congress making the checks and balances on the presidency. On that there is a lot of success.

GEORGE GRAYSON:

In terms of public opinion polling, he still has very high numbers. The problem is he's down from about 70 percent approval to 64. So he has a reservoir of good will with the Mexican people. But he's going to have to start delivering on his promises. He of course is a former president of Coca-Cola for Mexico in Central America. So he said he would bring a business-like approach to governing. And he got four head hunting firms to select the cabinet that was the best and the brightest. But being the best and the brightest doesn't necessarily mean that they have political sensitivity, or that they can work together.

And so his cabinet is called by pundits, the Cabinete Montessori, the Montessori cabinet because of, as our teenagers might say, they like to do their own thing rather than work as a team. And I think he needs to perhaps spend a little bit more time focusing on domestic policy and making certain that his agenda is clear and he builds the coalitions in Congress that can move his programs to fruition.

RAY SUAREZ:

Let's turn the focus a little bit to the visit to the United States. Why is it significant that the red carpet was rolled out, state dinner tonight, visit to Ohio, with the sitting president tomorrow. What's this all about, Rossana Fuentes?

ROSSANA FUENTES-BERAIN:

Well, it's for both countries the most important relationship. I'm very glad that the U.S. has realized finally that we're not so much any more distant neighbors but different neighbors and that we need to work harder and concentrate also in this kind of an agenda, migration, corruption was also named, narcotics, but also education. For me the way that President Bush talked about that was enlightening in the sense that we need to concentrate on the things that have been more problematic for the relationship, but also on the things that could bring us to a point in which the two countries can start looking into the future rather than just looking into the past.

RAFAEL FERNANDEZ DE CASTRO:

We've seen the two presidents, the two flags; they're very good and very positive for the bilateral relationship. The fact that President Bush said this morning that Mexico is the single most important relationship in international affairs for this country is very important.

RAY SUAREZ:

How is that heard in Mexico? If I'm turning on the television this a major city tonight and seeing these two men standing together, and as you mentioned the two flags and the national anthems, how am I going to react to that?

RAFAEL FERNANDEZ DE CASTRO:

I guess it's going to be seen very well in Mexico because for Mexico it always has been the U.S. — the most important relationship. It's even overwhelming sometimes. So finally there is the recognition, not only in Mexico but the U.S. that Mexico is so important. That sets a historical opportunity to move forward a new agenda. And I guess to allow this migration, and the important thing now is that every single topic is on the table. When we negotiated NAFTA ten years ago, migration was down the table as well as energy. Now everything is on the table, and finally we are having this mature relationship that is very important; so Mexico now when they agree with the U.S., they say so, and sometimes they disagree, and hopefully they will means to disagree.

RAY SUAREZ:

Is it a big deal when a Mexican president refers to the President of the United States as his friend?

GEORGE GRAYSON:

Ray, I don't want to be indiscreet, but there is an element of domestic politics here, not just for Mr. Fox, but also for Mr. Bush. His closest consultants have said if he can increase his percentage of the Hispanic American vote by 3, 4, 5 percent, in 2004, then he has a much better chance of renewing his lease on the Oval Office. President Fox is dynamic, we overuse the word charisma, but he comes very close to having it. And he's the best-known Latin American in the world now. And so to the extent that Mr. Bush can show that he is an amigo of President Fox, I believe the White House politicos hope that will translate into votes in 2004 among the Hispanic American electorate.

ROSSANA FUENTES-BERAIN:

I think that the way that it was phrased — the amigos phrase — is a welcoming event. I mean, there are many Mexicans and many Americans that are amigos who are not politicians, and yes politicians like winning elections. And they go after the votes. And I think that we're looking into two men that are campaigning; President Fox is also all the time trying to rise up his constituencies and in that sense what we're seeing is two full-fledged politicians trying to get some political mileage of their friendliness.

RAY SUAREZ:

But did past Mexican presidents have to behave differently in public regarding their relationship to the United States? Was there always a reluctance to be that openly close?

RAFAEL FERNANDEZ DE CASTRO:

I guess something that is very important with Mr. Fox is that he's a businessman. He was a Coca-Cola man, and when he comes to the U.S. he just lets his instincts to show. He just, he sees a lot of opportunity here, he's done business in the U.S., he sees a very big economy, and he wants to do business with the U.S. And I guess that is very important. So he is very transparent on that, he's very honest on his interest in the U.S., and I guess it's very important what he said this morning about finishing this migration agreement this year, that we really said all these migration in this orderly fashion, which will be very important for Mexico, perhaps migration is the most sensible item on the bilateral agreement for Mexicans.

The last year almost 500 Mexicans died in the border trying to cross undocumentedly. And that has to stop, because on the one hand in the last six or seven years with NAFTA, trade has gone up a lot and now with almost trading one billion dollars every year between Mexico and the U.S., Mexico has been the single – the single market who has grown more for the U.S. exports in the last five years, so that is very important. So now we have to fix the migration project. It is very important; there is this opportunity, and President Fox has made this his priority and hopefully he will deliver for the Mexicans and for the migrants. Migrants are close to President Fox's heart and hopefully also to President Bush's heart.

RAY SUAREZ:

Thank you all for being here.