Afghan security forces teeter on the brink of collapse amid Taliban onslaught

William Brangham:

Even before the Biden administration announced the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan by the September, the security situation there had deteriorated. The Taliban have stepped up their attacks, their onslaught is accelerating, and Afghan forces seemed to have no ability to stop it.

Stephanie Sy has the latest.

Stephanie Sy:

Across the country, in every direction, the Taliban have made major gains. From Lashkar Gah in the south, to Kunduz in the north, along with many other places, the Taliban have captured territory and provincial capitals, and are now a threat in most of Afghanistan's provinces. Their assassination campaign against government, civil society, and media also continues.

So, how does all this look to those who follow Afghanistan closely?

For that, we get two views. Retired Lieutenant General Doug Lute, served in both the George W. Bush and Obama administrations focusing on Afghanistan. And Annie Pforzheimer, served as the deputy chief of mission in Kabul in 2017 and '18, then went on to become acting deputy assistant secretary of state for Afghanistan until 2019.

Thank you both for joining thank you both for joining us.

Annie Pforzheimer, I want to start with you. We asked the Pentagon today about their reaction to the events in Afghanistan. The spokesman said they're concerned. What does that really mean when a government official says that? Does it mean they were not expecting this?

Annie Pforzheimer:

I think it means that they do not have viable plans right now that they can share with the media and honestly they don't seem to have had enough planning behind their policy decisions to withdraw unconditionally and with a date certain. So I cannot get into the mindset of the spokesmen but I would say the concern is a mild word to say that they don't know what is happening next.

Stephanie Sy:

Ambassador Doug Lute, no viable plans, does this withdrawal which I know you have supported, is that the reason we are seeing this momentum from the Taliban?

Lt. Gen. Doug Lute (Ret.):

Well, it's part of the reason. But it's only part of it. The Biden administration's decision had many components, at least five by my count. One was the withdrawal of U.S. military troops and that has taken affect according to plan.

But other pieces of plans, other parts of this policy package have lagged. And here I agree with Annie Pforzheimer, so how are we going to continue economic and political support to the Afghan government? How are we going to deliver diplomatic support to the stillborn talks in Doha? How are we going to take care of the Afghans who worked and served a long side of us, and equally important for the U.S., in self-interest, how are we going to deliver an over the horizon counterterrorism capability in case transnational terrorists pop up again in Afghanistan.

So one piece of the policy has been implemented according to the timeline, the others are yet to be seen.

Stephanie Sy:

Annie, what can the U.S. do from here on out? And do you hold the Biden administration responsible for this method of withdrawal and the reason we're seeing so many cities fall so fast in Afghanistan?

Annie Pforzheimer:

Well, at first, I want to say that the human costs are escalating and it is a terrible series of stories of people that I know and have worked with. It is what we hear about atrocities that are being committed, prisoners that have been killed. And this is happening in a way that has caused more displacement, over 300,000 people have been displaced since May. People are sleeping in the open and Kabul because they are frightened to go back to their homes and cities.

So, yes, I think that the U.S. government bears some part of the responsibility for how this has unfolded. And I think that we have options, short of war, that we still need to take.

Stephanie Sy:

Ambassador, it sounds like you believe there are options as well. But what leverage does the U.S. or the U.N. have to get the Taliban back to the negotiating table. And are the Taliban that are fighting these battles, are they even listening to the leaders negotiating in Doha?

Doug Lute:

Well, it's not quite clear what the connection is between those negotiating on behalf of the Taliban, what that relationship is with the Taliban fighters on the ground. In some of these remote rural areas, largely still rural areas where the Taliban is gaining military — military effectiveness. But you know these are.

(CROSSTALK)

Stephanie Sy:

Well, not just rural areas anymore — not just rural areas anymore, Ambassador. We're looking at cities including the city of Kunduz, 375,000 people, a northern city, which the Taliban has held before. But it looks like the security forces are not able to hold territory.

Doug Lute:

That's right, Kunduz is an exception in terms of its size and its location in the north. The other provincial capitols and the handful that have fallen are still relatively small and relatively remote and in Pashtun-dominated areas.

So the largest cities, the five or six largest cities are still defended by the government forces. Of course, I think the key here, and we are seeing play out is that we have given alongside Afghans, we have given the Afghan government the capacity to, the capabilities to defend itself. But what is playing out is whether or not they have the will to defend themself.

And in military situations, capability and will are both important but will is dominant.

(CROSSTALK)

Stephanie Sy:

Annie Pforzheimer, how do you get the willingness — go ahead, you can respond to the ambassador there.

Annie Pforzheimer:

Yeah, I just want to say, I know he is making very important points. But I would just add that the Afghan forces are reclaiming territory as well as losing it. They are still fighting. And they have the disadvantage that they can't use the Taliban's tactics. They have to care about international humanitarian law and civilians and so, I know they have the will to do quite a bit, and that's where I think that they need international support, the way that in fact the Taliban has international support. I think that we should continue to support our allies in Afghanistan and keep them fighting at the level that they're capable of.

Doug Lute:

You know, but Annie.

Stephanie Sy:

OK. That is another issue that —

(CROSSTALK)

Stephanie Sy:

Please, Ambassador, go ahead.

Doug Lute:

Right. This fight will not be won by air support, for example. Air support is important but only on the margins. This is a ground fight, a ground based fight. And in particular the ground-based fight with the forces intermingled with civilians.

So, we need much more capacity and much more will demonstrated by the Afghan forces so that we don't see reports of Afghan forces surrendering or abandoning their posts and so forth. So, it's both capacity and will.

Stephanie Sy:

Does the Taliban momentum at this point look reversible, though, to you, Ambassador? And you have a military background, without boots on the ground? Because as you say, there is still U.S. air support, it doesn't seem to be making a difference and it can lead to civilian casualties as you know in these urban fighting environments.

Doug Lute:

Right, I don't think the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban is inevitable. I think that the Afghan government does have a capacity. It has over 300,000 army and police on station, on the payroll. The question here is whether we can — they can provide Afghan leadership to those Afghan forces that will then stem the tide on the ground.

We should provide as Annie Pforzheimer said. We should continue to provide tactical air support when we can distinguish between the Taliban and civilians, careful not to create civilian casualties in the process. But that's extraordinarily difficult because these forces are intermingled.

So the essence of this is Afghan capacity and Afghan will.

Annie Pforzheimer:

Yes, I want to agree with that. I also just want to think that — I'm sorry, go ahead.

SY:

Annie Pforzheimer, I apologize. We'll have to leave the conversation there. And I also apologize for the delay in speaking to each other.

Ambassador Doug Lute and Annie Pforzheimer, thank you both for joining us and we hope to you have back soon.

Doug Lute:

Thank you