Amy Walter and Jasmine Wright on how Senate Republicans feel about Trump’s big bill

Laura Barron-Lopez:

Congress may be out this week, but lawmakers will likely hear from constituents about President Trump's big domestic policy bill passed by House Republicans. It now heads to the Senate, where it's already facing an uphill battle.

Joining me to discuss this and more of the day's political news is Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Jasmine Wright of NOTUS.

Thank you so much, both of you, for joining us today.

So let's first dive into the big reconciliation party-line bill. We have seen Senate Republicans already raising some concerns about this package, which the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates will cost the U.S. more than $3 trillion.

Here's Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY):

I think the cuts currently in the bill are wimpy and anemic, but I still would support the bill even with wimpy and anemic cuts if they weren't going to explode the debt. The problem is, the math doesn't add up. There's got to be someone left in Washington who thinks debt is wrong and deficits are wrong.

Laura Barron-Lopez:

Jasmine, you have been reporting on this for NOTUS, you have been talking to Senate Republicans, what are you hearing from them, especially about the Medicaid and SNAP parts of the package?

Jasmine Wright, NOTUS:

Yes.

Well, I think, fundamentally, they're going to be concerned about the top line. Yes, there are specific factions of the Republican Party over on the Senate who want to see less cuts for Medicaid, Medicare. They want to see more for some others. But fundamentally it's going to be about reducing the deficit. Does this bill go far enough? Does it make too many cuts or does it make not enough?

Rand Paul is not alone in his beliefs. With him is Senator Ron Johnson, partially Senator Josh Hawley, Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina. There are multiple senators. Remember, they can only lose three votes, really. There are multiple senators who feel like this bill does not do enough to reduce the deficit and in fact adds to the deficit.

So they're going to talk about those more minute changes that have to happen in Social Security and Medicaid when it comes to differentiating themselves from that original bill. But, fundamentally, Laura, this is about the top line and a lot of Republican senators do not like what they have been given.

Laura Barron-Lopez:

Yes, so the cost of the bill could ultimately be what tanks it in the Senate or means that they have to make significant changes.

But, Amy, Democrats seem to think they have a potential winning message on the Medicaid element of the bill. Tell me, do you see that potentially working when they're talking to constituents?

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Well, this is the real challenge that Republicans have right now.

They have the internal challenges, keeping the party together, not just in the Senate and getting a bill through the Senate. But, remember, it then has to come back to the House for final passage if there are changes, which it sounds very much like we will see changes on the Senate side, so keeping that internal coalition together.

But then they have to message to an external audience, to, of course, voters about what's in this bill. Democrats pretty much have one message, and it is this is going to cut Medicaid and health care for millions of people who need it. What Republicans are saying is, no, it won't, it's going to make sure — we make sure to take care of those who are the neediest; the only people who will lose Medicaid are people who are either on it fraudulently, they're here illegally and getting these benefits or they haven't worked enough and so that we're requiring them a certain number of work hours in order to be able to get this.

Both sides are going to show you polling that says their message is really resonating with voters. As I said, we will see once voters get this message from both of them, but I think what Democrats have going for them is the fact that they just get to repeat this over and over again, while Republicans are trapped right now trying to appease their own members and then at the same time trying to sell this message.

Jasmine Wright:

Also trying to appease Donald Trump, right?

Amy Walter:

Well…

(Crosstalk)

Jasmine Wright:

Because we know it's always the audience of one, a little bit different when it comes to the Senate than versus the House.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Jasmine Wright:

But, still, audience of one.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Laura Barron-Lopez:

I want to talk about the president's continued attacks on the judiciary.

And he specifically was — as threats have been increasing to judges, which The Wall Street Journal is reporting, and they're considering potentially their own security details due to these threats. Just this morning on TRUTH Social, the president in a post, as he was saying happy Memorial Day, again was attacking judges, calling them "USA-hating judges who suffer from an ideology that is sick."

And the president was attacking judges specifically who say that he is going too far in potentially weakening due process rights, Amy. I know that the president still has his base on immigration, on his agenda items there, but could he potentially be losing some voters, could Republicans lose some voters and hear from them when they go back home on the issue of threats to due process rights?

Amy Walter:

They may.

Here's the thing. Many of those judges that he's criticizing were appointed by Republican presidents, so this isn't just simply liberals going against this president. I think the challenge right now that Donald Trump has with those voters who supported him in this last election, but maybe aren't fully bought in, is they see Donald Trump in a transactional way.

He said he was going to make my life a little bit better, he was going to lower costs for me, there are things he does that I don't really like, but I'm willing to accept those for the change in my own economic certainty.

That has yet to come either.