Amy Walter and Sophia Cai on how Biden and Trump are working to win Black voters

Amna Nawaz:

From an A-list fund-raiser in Hollywood to a roundtable at a Black church in Michigan, the two leading presidential candidates were in search of campaign cash and votes this weekend.

It's a perfect time for Politics Monday. That's Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Sophia Cai of Axios. Tamara Keith is away.

Great to see you both.

Sophia Cai, Axios:

Hello.

Amna Nawaz:

So, President Biden was in California at this fund-raiser, notched the single biggest Democratic fund-raising haul with a $30 million event there with some Hollywood celebrities.

Meanwhile, former President Trump was in Michigan trying to appeal to Black voters. And we have seen in recent polling that he's made some inroads. USA Today numbers from earlier in June show in both Michigan and in Pennsylvania Mr. Biden's seen some slip of that support there. It's down to now 54 percent of Black voters in Michigan and 56 percent in Pennsylvania. For Mr. Trump, that's up to 15 percent and 11 percent.

Amy, it's worth pointing out the numbers for President Biden in 2020 were over 90 percent among Black voters.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Yes, that's right.

Amna Nawaz:

How do you look at those now? What's going on?

Amy Walter:

Yes, and that, for Trump, even though, as you say, 11 percent, 15 percent doesn't seem very significant, that's double the support that he got in a state like Pennsylvania, where he got 7 percent of the Black vote.

Amna Nawaz:

Right.

Amy Walter:

This is something clearly the Biden campaign is seeing too. This isn't just in public polls.

There's a reason that the vice president has been spending as much time as she has been at historically Black colleges. The president himself has been out speaking to Black voters in key swing states now for months, that this slippage is as much about enthusiasm as anything else.

As you're seeing, while Trump has picked up some support, there are a lot of people that — who are sitting on the sidelines, who are saying, maybe I'm going to vote for a third-party candidate, or maybe I'm going to stay home.

And when you talk to Democratic strategists, what they will tell you is, the real gap, those voters who are really deciding whether they're going to vote or not, third party, maybe Trump, overwhelmingly are younger voters. That's the biggest — the generation gap, this one Democratic strategist said, is the real significant driver right now of Black vote, different between, say, 2020 or 2016 and this upcoming election.

And getting those younger voters engaged is really challenging, not just because these voters may not be impressed with Biden. They don't like Trump necessarily either, but they're also feeling that the institution itself, the political institutions, have really failed them or they don't see any reason to be involved there, so that big, big, big worry if you're the Democrats…

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Amy Walter:

… when you have to count on those voters showing up to win those key swing states.

Amna Nawaz:

To that point, Sophia, as Amy points out, it's not like they're going to Mr. Trump, right? So he's likely not going to win that vote with these kinds of numbers, 15 percent, 11 percent in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

But, for him, what is the strategy here in courting them?

Sophia Cai:

Yes, it's a good question.

So I think it's twofold. On the one hand, the Trump campaign knows that they're not going to win 20 percent, 30 percent, as they're saying publicly. I mean, it's just nonsense. But even if they're able to get 1 to 2 percent more than the 9 percent that they got last time, specifically in those swing state cities like Detroit and Atlanta, then that is within a margin that could move enough voters, it could change the result of the election in that — in those states.

And so their objective is to get that marginal vote and also to make the Biden campaign sweat, to force them to spend more resources shoring up Biden's coalition of minority voters.

Amna Nawaz:

And spend more money in places that are more expensive to campaign in as well, right?

Sophia Cai:

Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

Well, speaking of campaigns, there's some key primaries in Virginia tomorrow, in particular, that I want to ask you both about.

There's the retirement of two key Democrats, Abigail Spanberger and Jennifer Wexton, which is going to mean two open seats. But there's a lot of focus on this one race of the Republican House Freedom Caucus chair, Bob Good, who's facing a very tough challenge in a Trump-backed candidate there.

It's the state Representative John McGuire. Tell us a little bit more about the GOP and their endorsement strategy.

Amy Walter:

Yes. Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

Amy, why is this a race you're watching?

Amy Walter:

This is really not a race about ideology or policy. It's about revenge. And the revenge is on the part of Donald Trump, as well as Kevin McCarthy, who was the former speaker, of course. Bob Good, the incumbent Congressman, has crossed them both, and they both want to exact a price for that.

Donald Trump, the way he — the way Bob Good crossed Donald Trump is that he endorsed Ron DeSantis in the presidential race. Now, when Ron DeSantis dropped out, he went and endorsed Donald Trump. It doesn't matter. You have crossed Donald Trump, and, for that, you will pay a price.

Now, look, there are members of the right who are coming to Bob Good's defense, so it is not that clean of a separation that's sort of Bob Good out on an island by himself. But it tells you a lot about fealty to Donald Trump and what Donald Trump's decision to go in after this one House member — it's not going to make any difference in terms of the makeup of Congress.

The person who would replace him is equally conservative. It's just sending a message to other Republicans that there is a price to pay for being disloyal.

Amna Nawaz:

Sophia, I know you have been looking closely at who Mr. Trump chooses to endorse and when. What should we understand about the strategy here?

Sophia Cai:

So, this cycle, more so than '22, the Trump campaign and Trump himself has been a lot more cautious in terms of who they endorse and when they endorse.

We know that Trump has been waiting a lot longer to endorse in competitive Republican primaries. For instance, in Montana, he waited to endorse Tim Sheehy over a more conservative, more MAGA candidate, Matt Rosendale. In Nevada, he waited to endorse Sam Brown over Jeff Gunter, who was his own ambassador to Iceland.

These are some examples of Trump picking better candidates who have military backgrounds and a better chance of winning. And for Trump, he likes to win. I think that's ultimately what it comes down to. And even downballot, we see him endorsing the day before some of these primaries, just the day before. That doesn't really give these candidates a lot of room to really flaunt that endorsement.

Amna Nawaz:

I don't know if you can do it in less than a minute, Amy.

How does all — how does Governor Hogan fit into all of this, who — Trump's campaign manager said his campaign's over when former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan said respect the ruling in New York, right, in Trump's criminal trial. But now Mr. Trump has come forward and endorsed him on his Senate run.

Amy Walter:

Right.

Amna Nawaz:

How does that make sense?

Amy Walter:

Yes, because, again, he wants to be a team player.

(Crosstalk)

Amy Walter:

I think that a lot of folks saw the backhanded, well, situation there and thought, well, he wants to be a team player. If Larry Hogan wants to be the kind of Republican, maybe not a full Trump all in, I will still support him.

I just think that is not going to be a reality, that, at the end of the day, the party is in Trump's image. And that's the way that Donald Trump would like it to remain.

Amna Nawaz:

And control of the Senate is at stake.

Amy Walter:

That's right. That's right.

Amna Nawaz:

Amy Walter, Sophia Cai, great to see you both. Thank you so much.

Amy Walter:

Thank you.