Amy Walter and Tamara Keith on Kavanaugh allegations fallout

Judy Woodruff:

Back in this country, today marks exactly 50 days until the November midterm elections.

Amna Nawaz has our Politics Monday segment.

Amna Nawaz:

For a look ahead at the midterms and more fallout from the Kavanaugh accusations, I'm here with Tamara Keith of NPR and Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report.

Welcome to you both.

Amy Walter:

Thank you.

Amna Nawaz:

Sorry it's such a slow day. We have nothing to talk about.

(LAUGHTER)

Amna Nawaz:

Listen, I don't want to get out ahead of what we know to be true. A lot is going to unfold over the course of the week, but let's talk about where we are right now.

Tam, kick us off here. Just remind us about the significance of this confirmation for Judge Kavanaugh. It was kind of a foregone conclusion a couple of days ago. The fact that it's delayed, that it could be derailed, what does that say to you?

Tamara Keith:

That is very significant.

Republicans really want this seat. And they want it done quickly. Just to be very political about it, Republicans want to be able to go into these midterms, go to their base voters and say, look at what we did. We got you two Supreme Court justices.

And if this gets delayed, stalled, if he — if he drops out or is pushed out, that is going to be a significant problem for Republicans.

Amna Nawaz:

What's your take on this, Amy?

Amy Walter:

Yes, we also don't know — whether he gets confirmed or not is one piece of this, where the votes are, but also the perceptions both of Judge Kavanaugh, of Dr. Ford, and of the senators that are questioning her.

Remember, with the Anita Hill hearings, for example, there was just as much criticism on the senators and the way in which they approached Anita Hill as there was about the actual judge, Clarence Thomas, and Anita Hill herself.

And perceptions of all of those folks were changed by these hearings. So there is a lot of unpredictability in this. And if you are trying to game this out politically, I think that's very hard to do at this point.

Amna Nawaz:

And, Tam, we know there's going to be a public hearing now. How much does that matter?

Amy Walter:

A lot.

Tamara Keith:

It matters a lot.

And how the public receives that hearing and how the senators are perceived, as Amy was saying, back in 1991, there were only two female senators. None of them were on the Judiciary Committee. Today, there are many more female senators, many of them elected that following year, in 1992, as a result of the way to people reacted to that 1991 hearing.

There are four women on the Judiciary Committee at this time, all Democrats.

Amna Nawaz:

Let's talk a little bit about those midterms you mentioned there, because, obviously, this conversation will carry forward in terms of how people perceive it, in terms of how it goes out.

But there's some new numbers from an NPR/Marist poll I want to take a look at as well that kind of inform how people are approaching that too. This is a question about how much trust people have in the fact that elections are fair or not.

Thirty-eight percent, Tam, 38 percent say not very much or not at all. What does that say to you?

Tamara Keith:

Well, and there's some partisan breakdown underneath that, which is that Democrats don't feel that elections are fair.

Democrats, who felt like Hillary Clinton got three million more votes than Donald Trump, and yet she's not president, and he is, the result of this poll are very much colored by how partisans see the last election.

Amy Walter:

Right, and how they see the trust that this will be protected, that their votes will be accurately counted and accurately reflected.

The one thing that Democrats and Republicans do agree on, though, is that they trust their state and local officials, elected officials, when it comes to protecting their votes more than the federal government.

And the other thing is, they really do see that Facebook, Twitter, they don't feel like those groups, those social media platforms have done enough since 2016 to protect against interference by outside — specifically foreign influence.

Amna Nawaz:

And, Tam, to your earlier point, obviously, it's not surprising, right, people have more faith in a system when it benefits them; 91 percent of people who self-identify as Republicans said that they think elections are fair.

But the groups that had the greatest doubts, those were women, those were non-white voters, and those were Democrats. What does that mean for them moving forward?

Tamara Keith:

Well, and one fascinating thing is that Donald Trump, President Trump, is the one leading into 2016 who kept saying, it's going to be rigged, it's — the system isn't fair.

But, in reality, a lot of non-white voters have experienced difficulties getting to the polls. I mean, this poll tells us that non-white voters have a more difficult time voting, and that affects their view of the fairness of the process.

Amna Nawaz:

Some stunning numbers, in that Latino voters in particular having to wait twice as long as white voters, travel twice as long as well.

But let's talk about one of the big-picture things at play here, and that is the Senate. Let's take a look at this map. This is the current makeup of the Senate, of course, 49 Democrats and independents, 51 Republicans. It's a tight margin.

We got about a minute left. Do Democrats…

Amy Walter:

Explain all of it in a minute.

Amna Nawaz:

… have a chance to win it? Could they actually do it?

Amy Walter:

There's a chance for anything to happen. That's why we love politics, right?

(LAUGHTER)

Amy Walter:

Look, here is the math, though, for Democrats.

It's always been challenging, because they are defending many more seats than Republicans are. Most — not most — half of the seats that they're defending are in red states, that Democrats are defending.

So this is a very, very difficult place to start. If Democrats are to pick up the two seats to flip control into Democratic hands, here's what they need to do. They need to either hold onto their most vulnerable seats — there are five of those — so, win 100 percent of those — and then win two out of the three most vulnerable Republican seats.

Is that possible to do? Sure. Is that difficult? Yes.

And that's holding on to seats, by the way, in Missouri, North Dakota, West Virginia, Indiana, Florida.

Tamara Keith:

States where — President Trump carried…

Amy Walter:

Is very popular.

Tamara Keith:

… by a lot in 2016.

Amna Nawaz:

A lot of interesting, interesting things to watch, then. Possible, very possible.

Amy Walter, Tamara Keith, thanks very much.

Tamara Keith:

You're welcome.

Amy Walter:

You're very welcome.