As U.S. pledge for help goes unfulfilled, Iran's uprising meets brutal crackdown

Geoff Bennett:

It has been over a week since Iran imposed a complete Internet blackout, keeping most of its 90 million people cut off from the outside world. Human rights activists say the death toll from the government crackdown has risen to more than 3,000, and a leading Iranian cleric called today for the execution of prisoners.

But, today, President Trump thanked the Iranian regime for not executing what he said were hundreds of political prisoners who were facing the death penalty.

President Donald Trump:

Iran canceled the hanging of over 800 people. They were going to hang over 800 people yesterday. And I greatly respect the fact that they canceled that.

Geoff Bennett:

And the crown prince in exile, Reza Pahlavi, held a press briefing in Washington today and urged U.S. military intervention.

Reza Pahlavi, Former Crown Prince of Iran: What will hurt the regime most? By dismantling its apparatus of state terror and repression. A lot of it are the regime's military, paramilitary assets, mostly IRGC targets. So I'm calling for a surgical strike on those means.

Geoff Bennett:

To help us understand the events in Iran, we turn now to Abbas Milani, director of Iranian studies at Stanford University, and Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations specializing in Iran and U.S. foreign policy.

Thank you both for being here.

Ray, we will start with you.

Was the regime in Iran ever truly on the brink of collapse? And, if not, what conditions need to exist for that to happen?

Ray Takeyh, Former State Department Official:

When it comes to the Iranian regime collapsing, we seem to oscillate between inevitable and unthinkable.

The regime certainly experienced significant stress in terms of popular uprisings that it experienced throughout the country. That comes at a time of foreign intervention that it was fearful of, and, of course, depletion of its economic resources.

However, I do believe that the regime has sufficient resources to get through this particular phase of protests and gain control of the streets. Now, if these demonstrations persist, then that is likely to tax its resources in a more significant way.

Geoff Bennett:

Abbas, a question about these protests and demonstrations. I know you have been able to reach a few people there, despite the blackout.

In simple terms, have the protests been extinguished or have they just been pushed underground?

Abbas Milani, Stanford University:

I think they have been pushed into temporary silence. I don't think they have been extinguished.

If you look at the 45-year history of this regime, you see these cycles of resistance, repression, and then the reemergence of the resistance, because these problems are structural. The regime is incapable of solving them. People become increasingly frustrated. And people become increasingly emboldened, particularly, for example, by women, who have shown that, if you are fierce, if you are in numbers strong enough, you can force the regime to back down.

So I doubt that this will be an end, but I think, right now, clearly, by killing the thousands -- and I think the number will go higher than the 3,500 -- they have forced people to retreat back to their homes.

Geoff Bennett:

And right here in Washington, there was talk of possible military action and then a clear step back.

Based on your -- what you know to be true, what happened?

Ray Takeyh:

Perhaps a number of things.

The president was under a lot of pressure from the regional allies, who did not want military action and potentially expansion of this conflict and destabilizing the region, particularly their economy. The Iranian regime began to maintain greater control of the streets and therefore possibility of a military action significantly tipping the balance one way or the other may have been in question.

And, also, the president declared victory. He said executions have stopped and therefore he doesn't need to abide by his own established red lines. I would say, in 2013, when President Obama established a red line that he did not adhere to, he was criticized roundly by many people, including President Trump.

But President Trump is not a conventional politician and he can do things that perhaps others can't.

Geoff Bennett:

Abbas, how damaging was it, if at all, for President Trump to say that help is coming and then not act?

Abbas Milani:

I think it was disheartening. I think many people took his promise seriously. They thought that he would certainly come to the help of the people. He even invited people to take over government buildings, which was even more than inviting them to come to the streets.

So I think, knowing how President Trump operates, I would be surprised if he doesn't show some kind of a response. But, as Ray indicated, he has found a way to indicate that maybe his red line wasn't shot down. But we know, actually, in the last 24 hours, the regime has hung at least 50-odd number of people. They claim they're criminals.

But we have to remember this regime has killed 4,000 people almost in secret in 1989. So the fact that this regime says I will not kill does not mean it will not kill. It might kill in secret. The world has to know the kind of regime we are facing.

Geoff Bennett:

What leverage does the U.S. have that doesn't involve military force, be it sanctions, diplomacy, regional pressure, leverage that actually matters to this regime?

Ray Takeyh:

I'm not sure how much more Iranian economy can be sanctioned. It's already sequestered from the global economy. It does sell its oil on discount to the Chinese, so perhaps an interdiction of its oil supplies and sort of things happening in Venezuela can put some kind of a pressure on it.

In terms of diplomatic ostracism, they don't seem to care that much about it. They have lost the global opinion, just to say they don't have regional allies. The regime is on a considerable degree of press -- of pressure, but I'm not quite sure if economic sanctions and particularly individual designations are going to do much at this particular stage.

The economy is already prostrate, and I'm not sure how much more that can be done.

Geoff Bennett:

Abbas, as you well know, historically regimes fall when elites or security forces defect.

At this point, do you see any signs of cracks within the IRGC?

Abbas Milani:

I see no cracks within the IRGC, except occasional comments by past commanders of the IRGC who indicate that the status quo is untenable.

I do see cracks within the regime, in the sense that there are many people within the regime who sometimes even talk on Iranian media who say Mr. Khamenei's path is untenable, the status quo is untenable.

And I just want to say that the notion that this regime has been sanctioned is partly true. Last year, the indications are from the government's own account that they sold almost $60 billion of oil in black markets. So they have the benefit of telling the Iranian people that this is a sanctioned regime.

But using all kinds of very sophisticated techniques, they have been able to sell that money and, with that, keep their apparatus of oppression oiled. Economic pressure on this regime, freezing their assets, freezing their activities, diplomatic activities, around the world, I think is the biggest leverage that the international community has against this regime.

They have to understand that you cannot kill your way out of these demonstrations. You haven't been able to kill it out of past demonstrations. Every killing spree has begotten larger demonstrations and has forced the regime to more brutality.

This is arguably the bloodiest suppression in a very bloody, sordid 44-year history.

Geoff Bennett:

Ray, what specific signs should we watch for in the coming weeks, whether it's inside the security forces, in the economy, or the clerical establishment, that would signal that there is a shift under way?

Ray Takeyh:

The challenge for the opposition is persistence. People say it has to have a structure and leadership. It doesn't meet those at this point. It has to have persistence and ability to come to the streets.

And should it do so, those leaders and structures will emerge. And the longer this goes, then you're going to see greater cracks within the regime and greater defections within the armed forces. If this actually spreads throughout the region, encompassing throughout Iran, then the regime will have to bring in armed forces, because Revolutionary Guards and Basij forces are not sufficient in terms of manpower if this is large and diffuse.

Then they're going to have to rely on conscripts to go into the neighborhood and shantytowns that are culturally familiar to them and engage in repression. They don't want to do that because they recognize how risky it is. I didn't expect the Revolutionary Guards to break today, but, over a period of time, if the opposition managed to persist, then they have a chance.

As Professor Milani suggested, the problem with Iranian opposition has been, it's episodic. There's an eruption and everybody goes home. There's an eruption. So the regime has managed to gain strength again. If the 3,000 dead figures are true -- and they're quite possibly discounted, as Dr. Milani indicated -- that is more people than died in the '78-'79 revolution.

So this is the level of scale of violence that we see, which is almost unprecedented in Iranian history.

Geoff Bennett:

Ray Takeyh, Abbas Milani, thank you both for your insights. We appreciate it.

Ray Takeyh:

Thank you.

Abbas Milani:

Thank you.