Biden administration announces its final aid package to Ukraine before Trump takes office

Amna Nawaz:

With less than two weeks left in office, the Biden administration is announcing its final shipment of weapons for Ukraine. The administration believes nearly all of this $500 million worth of weapons will arrive before the inauguration of Donald Trump, whose Ukraine envoy today said they will aim to negotiate an end to the war within Trump's first 100 days in office.

Nick Schifrin is following all of this and joins us now.

So, Nick, tell us more about what exactly the Biden administration is sending in this latest round of aid.

Nick Schifrin:

The Biden administration announced today or is announcing its 56th weapons package for Ukraine worth about $500 million, as you said.

And among these weapons are some of the longer-range weapons that Ukraine has used inside Russia, you see right there, to hit key Russian infrastructure, as well as artillery shells. Now, administration officials say this is the final money that Congress has appropriated for Ukraine for drawn-down U.S. stocks that can be replenished to the U.S. military.

And, frankly, Amna, as you know, Ukraine needs all the help it can get. Just today in Zaporizhzhia, Russian missiles in an apartment complex, an industrial facility, and the debris hit a tram and a train, killing more than 13 and wounding more than 60.

Amna Nawaz:

I mean, Nick, as you have been reporting, this war now grinds on into another year. What exactly is the state of play on the front lines?

Nick Schifrin:

Administration officials who see this as a glass-half-full believe that Ukraine is holding the line and that Russia is making small gains, but at great cost, more than 1,500 casualties every single day on the Russian side.

But analysts we talk to say — or see a Ukraine that is barely holding on and that really faces fundamental problems for which there are no easy answers. So let's look at the front, specifically in the east in the Donbass. Russia has made recent gains around the city of Pokrovsk. You see that there.

And analysts have feared Pokrovsk's fall for months and that it could have a knock-on effect across the Donbass. So far, Ukraine's lines are holding, but Ukraine does not have answers to fundamental questions that really surround a shortage of manpower, says retired Colonel Robert Hamilton of the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Col. Robert Hamilton (Ret.), Foreign Policy Research Institute: They are losing ground, hundreds of meters to several square kilometers or more a day. That's been going on for about a year. And the main reason is, they're just outmanned on the front lines.

The second part of it is the training. It's not long enough and it's not intense enough. And then the third problem is what we would call force employment, like how they're using these newly mobilized soldiers. What they're doing is, they're forming new brigades. They're forming brand-new units. They're giving them new equipment and then they're sending them into the front line.

Nick Schifrin:

And that means these newly mobilized brigades just aren't as effective, Amna, as they need to be.

Another part of the front that we should highlight is inside of Russia, and that is Kursk. Ukraine invaded the territory in August. It's been losing some of what it captured, but just this week beefed up its operations with the hope that it can hold on at least a part of Kursk in order to have it as a chip in future negotiations.

Amna Nawaz:

So what about those negotiations? We know president-elect Trump has promised to accelerate those. What does the future of the U.S. policy in Ukraine look like?

Nick Schifrin:

As you said at the top, president-elect Trump's Ukraine envoy, retired General Keith Kellogg, said today that his goal was — quote — "a solid, sustainable solution to the war in Ukraine within a 100 days of inauguration."

Kellogg himself has called for Ukraine to receive some kind of security guarantees in the future in order to prevent Ukraine from being invaded again by Russia after whatever negotiation takes place. But, yesterday, Trump suggested that he would reverse decades of U.S. policy that called for an open door to European countries to join NATO so long as they met NATO criteria when Trump suggested he would not let Ukraine join NATO, echoing the Russian argument for why Ukraine should not join.

Donald Trump, Former President of the United States (R) and Current U.S. President-Elect: Russia has somebody right in their doorstep, and I could understand their feeling about that.

Nick Schifrin:

Bottom line is, the Trump team will have a choice. If it wants Ukraine to have the most leverage at the negotiating table, it will have to increase weapons to Ukraine, as well as, most importantly, lift restrictions of how deep U.S. weapons can be fired into Ukraine, says Robert Hamilton.

Col. Robert Hamilton (Ret.):

It's not sufficient to change the outcome of the war, but I think it's necessary. Unless Ukraine is allowed to do that, I think we're in a position where their position will continue to erode.

Nick Schifrin:

And that is what Ukraine is worried about, Amna, fighting this war of attrition with less U.S. support than it has now.

Amna Nawaz:

We will see which choice the next administration makes.

Nick Schifrin, thank you very much.

Nick Schifrin:

Thank you.