Capehart and Johnson on immigration, Trump’s defamation case and the 2024 race

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• Amna Nawaz:

  Funding for Ukraine is on hold, as former President Donald Trump has urged lawmakers to reject any compromise immigration deal.

  On that battle and the other stories shaping the week, we turn now to the analysis of Capehart and Johnson. That is Jonathan Capehart, associate editor for The Washington Post, and Eliana Johnson, editor in chief of The Washington Free Beacon. David Brooks is away.

  Good to see you both. Thanks for being here.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Hi, Amna.

• Amna Nawaz:

  We reported earlier, Speaker Mike Johnson has basically said in a letter to his colleagues today that the Senate bill on border security and Ukraine funding is dead on arrival in the House. That's after former President Trump was ramping up his pressure on Republicans to kill the deal.

  Republican Senator Mitt Romney had this to say about that yesterday.

• Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT):

  The fact that he would communicate to Republican senators and congresspeople that he doesn't want us to solve the border problem because he wants to blame Biden for it is really appalling.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Jonathan, the deal was really on life support. Did Mr. Trump's pressure just put it into the ground?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  I don't know. I mean, Senator Romney isn't the only one who's speaking out against what the former president is asking them to do, speaking out in favor of a bill that under normal circumstances they wouldn't get.

  We have to keep in mind, we're talking about a bill that no one has seen, that — at least meaning none of us at this table. It has not been released. We're just talking about rumors of what might be in the bill, which is — I think the word rumor is what Speaker Johnson used in that letter.

  It is my hope that Senator Romney, Senator Graham, Senator Cramer from North Dakota and the other six stay cohesive, stay at the bargaining table and come up with something, because the idea that you won't — that you shouldn't come up with something because it will give President Biden some sort of win is appalling.

  These are the same people who have been complaining about open borders and invasions and fentanyl killing Americans coming over the border and why won't the president, President Biden, do anything. They're trying to do it, and yet they're standing in the way.

• Amna Nawaz:

  To that point, President Biden put out a statement in response to all of this late today.

  Here's what he said in part. He called a deal a win for America. He said: "For anyone — for everyone," rather, "who's demanding tougher border control, this is the way to do it. If you're serious about the border crisis," he writes, "pass a bipartisan bill, and I will sign it."

  So, Eliana, are Republicans really serious about addressing the border crisis?

• Eliana Johnson:

  That statement from President Biden was — is clearly going to be his message.

  I am skeptical that this bill is going to pass, but immigration and the border have been a problem for President Biden, and you can see him now prepared to say, we came wanting to sign a deal with the toughest border provisions in a long time, and Republicans rejected that.

  The question is whether Biden will actually be able to get out from under all of the bad press and his poor handling of the border up until now. How closely are people actually paying attention to this?

  There are a couple of other interesting dynamics here. Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, this deal is Republican support for Ukraine funding in exchange for Democrats agreeing to tougher border provisions. Mitch McConnell has been the loudest proponent on the Republican side of Ukraine funding.

  He's going to be in favor of this deal. It is very much a legacy issue for him. So it looks like very much it's going to be President Trump, who wants to campaign on the bad situation at the border, versus Mitch McConnell in the Senate wanting this legacy issue, more funding for Ukraine.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Would Mitch McConnell or Speaker Johnson ever defy President Trump and agree to a deal?

• Eliana Johnson:

  Mitch McConnell would certainly defy President Trump.

  (Laughter)

• Eliana Johnson:

  He's leaving. Yes, I think he's expected to leave. He's not beholden to anyone.

  Others are more skeptical, and I think they are making more cynical political calculations in an election year. And the House already passed a much tougher border deal. And what Speaker Johnson came out and said is that, if the Senate deal is not near — almost as tough as the House deal, this thing is dead.

  And it's not going to be as tough as that House deal.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  And we should also point out the fact that Speaker Johnson is in near-constant communication with Donald Trump. And so we know what's going on here.

  No matter what the Senate comes up with, the House is not going to pass it, not at all. And certainly they're not going to come up with a bill that could even garner a single Democratic vote.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Well, this is all, of course, unfolding with the presidential campaign in the background and Mr. Trump now being the likely presumptive nominee.

  I want to get both of your takes on what the biggest takeaways were coming out of these early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. And also we saw his strengths now, right, Jonathan? We kind of know where his core constituencies and his loyal base are.

  But you also saw today this key judgment from a jury awarding E. Jean Carroll $83 million for — that he has to pay for defaming her. Is any of this a vulnerability for him?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Not in the primary, not during the primary campaign, because, as we have seen, his poll numbers started going up among the primary electorate the moment he got that first indictment.

  The problem comes in, if he does indeed become the nominee, now he's in the general election campaign. And there are — certainly, Democrats aren't going to vote for him, but there are a lot of Republicans who are troubled by these felony indictments who I think would be troubled by the fact that a former president of the United States today has been ordered to pay $83.3 million to a woman he defamed in a lawsuit that had already determined he sexually assaulted her.

  I'm old enough to remember a Republican Party where that guy would have been run out of town, let alone don't even think about running for president. And yet he's in the hunt.

  But what the — Nikki Haley's second-place finish in New Hampshire showed, though, is that independent voters went to her. And independent voters in the general election are going to be a big deal, and they don't like — I don't think they like what Trump is up to. And then, if you add on top of it — and this will be the last thing I say — the abortion issue…

• Amna Nawaz:

  Yes.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  … I think whoever the Republican ticket is in trouble.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Which we know is the central part of the Biden/Harris reelection campaign.

  Eliana, how do you look at this?

• Eliana Johnson:

  Look, I don't think this verdict is telling voters anything they don't already know about President Trump. They know he's crass. They know he's undisciplined. They know he can be offensive.

  But I do think that Nikki Haley's campaign against him in Iowa and New Hampshire has revealed some of his weaknesses. She won overwhelmingly independent voters and college-educated voters. It's pretty clear, I think, that Donald Trump may not need those voters to win the primaries. He's got the base of the Republican Party behind him.

  He will, however, need those voters to win a general election, it's more than likely. And I do think this is where the lawsuit is relevant. The lawsuit can hurt him among women and independents, as can a prolonged primary campaign against Nikki Haley, where he's more likely the longer this goes on to say some things.

  He made a comment on the night of their New Hampshire primary about Nikki Haley's dress, that it was — oh, she tried to look nice, but the dress was ugly, or something along those lines. Those are sorts of comments that middle-of-the-road women, it's alienating to them, and he does need those people in a general election.

• Amna Nawaz:

  You think that's going to hurt him in the long run? So…

• Eliana Johnson:

  I think it threatens to.

• Amna Nawaz:

  So, how do you see or what do you see as Nikki Haley's strategy right now? Her campaign has said that they have raised over a million dollars since the New Hampshire primary. Is this about just staying in to weaken former President Trump? Is she looking for a vice presidential pick here? What's the play?

• Eliana Johnson:

  I think we have got to see what she does over the next week to see, is she in this just until after South Carolina, or is she in this for the long haul? Is this about securing a vice presidential nomination? Or is it about trying to reshape the party in 2028 and beyond?

  I'm not quite sure we know that from her — from her yet.

• Amna Nawaz:

  We should also note, President Biden had an objectively good week this week. There were more strong economic numbers. He got a big endorsement from the United Auto Workers union.

  He's really shifting into much more of a general election campaign mode. You have got key advisers like Jen O'Malley Dillon and Mike Donilon, architects of his 2020 win, now shifting to the campaign from the White House.

  Are they in a more general election mode now? And what does that mean for the campaign?

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Yes, they're in a general election mode now, because it looks like Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee.

  It is, I think, a fight that they are looking — very much looking forward to have. As we saw, I think it was New Hampshire primary night, when the Biden campaign put out a statement slamming Donald Trump, but also slamming Nikki Haley, saying it doesn't matter. She — basically, she's Trump-lite. She supports all the things that he supports. So bring it on, no matter which one comes out there.

  But I do think that the campaign shifting into general election mode now is the smart thing to do, and it's the necessary thing to do, because we know, with Donald Trump, he's constantly in campaign mode, whether he's sitting in the courtroom or standing on the sidewalk giving a press conference or actually on a stage in Iowa or New Hampshire.

  And I think the sooner that the Biden campaign gets out there, the more that it will be on. I just think everyone needs to buckle up, because between now and Election Day is going to be rough.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Buckle up is the message from Jonathan.

  Eliana, how do you look at this? And where do you think President Biden is most vulnerable when it comes to Republican attacks?

• Eliana Johnson:

  Well, I think the Biden campaign has been in general election mode for quite a long time. He gave a big speech on democracy and the threats to democracy. He's given a couple of them in the past six months. And I think that's very much going to be a general election theme from him.

  I think Biden is most vulnerable on immigration and the economy. And I am skeptical. I said a couple of minutes ago that I'm not sure voters will pick up on this nuance of Republicans rejecting the offer from Democrats. I think they probably won't, and Biden will be blamed for the situation at the southern border.

  And I think he's vulnerable on the economy. The numbers are good, but I don't think voters feel their situation is good. And foreign policy, there's a lot going on in the world right now, but it tends not to be an issue that people actually cast a ballot on.

  So I do think economy, immigration, those are going to be the things that determine the outcome of this election.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Eliana Johnson, Jonathan Capehart, good to see you both. Thank you so much.

• Eliana Johnson:

  Thank you.

• Jonathan Capehart:

  Thanks, Amna.