Career Focus

RAY SUAREZ:

Though the nation's unemployment rate fell slightly this month, job losses over the past few months have risen well above the 30-year low of 3.9 percent unemployment reported two years ago. What does that mean to new college graduates facing the job market for the first time? Joining me for a discussion: Marilyn Mackes, executive director of the National Association of Colleges and Employers; Brian Krieger, Founder and President of Collegegrad.com, an entry-level job site for college students and recent graduates; and Cecilia Conrad, a labor economist who teaches at Pomona College in California.

Well, Marilyn Mackes, over the past couple of weeks, hundredth of thousands of people have walked across stages all around the country, been handed a piece of paper and now what's waiting for them out there?

MARILYN MACKES:

Well, I wish I could say that this year's class of 2002 was looking at as good a job market as the class of 2001 but that's simply not the indication. Over the last twelve to eighteen months, we've really seen the college employment market shifting pretty dramatically. We've been surveying employers on a regular basis over the last eight months or so.

We've done a series of surveys to find out what the projections were going to be like. And our most recent survey done in March and April of this year, says that this year's class, we're really looking at a 36 percent decrease in hiring opportunities here.

RAY SUAREZ:

But a decrease from an unusually high plateau?

MARILYN MACKES:

Well, from last year. And last year actually– last year's class did experience some of the downside of the shift in the economy. The class of 2000 really was at the height of the recruitment cycle over the last couple of years. We had been looking at a series of years, about five or six years of percentage increases of hiring of 15-20 percent. And then in 2001, things really began to slow down. And of course this year we're seeing the lowest we've seen in quite a while.

RAY SUAREZ:

Brian Krueger, how did trends in the wider economy and the wider market have a particular impact on college grads?

BRIAN KRUEGER:

Well, it's important to understand that at the entering level, you have a pretty consistent supply of college graduates coming out every year, but the number of new job opportunities is not. And entry-level tends to be highly cyclical, meaning when the economy is up, entry-level hiring is way up. When the economy is down, entry-level hiring is way down. It doesn't mean there are fewer jobs out there, just fewer jobs out there for the class of 2002.

RAY SUAREZ:

Does the fact that a new grad likely to work cheaper than a more experienced worker work to their favor?

BRIAN KRUEGER:

It does to a degree. But when you are looking at entry-level, entry-level college grads have better computer skills than people with more experience. They're typically willing to work at a lesser amount. But at the same time, even though they have a college degree, they require a degree of training to come up to speed and be a fully productive employee. Companies are not typically willing to make that investment unless they're in a growth mode or at least a replacement mode. We are starting to see some of that. But as Marilyn said, it is a very slow year for hiring at the entry-level.

RAY SUAREZ:

Cecilia Conrad, you are looking at the job market on the whole but you are also located on a college campus. How do you see students adapting to this less sunny outlook?

CECILIA CONRAD:

Well, students have several ways they can kind of respond to a weaker demand. One that I've seen is students are starting to look outside of the private sector and the for-profit sector. They recognize that the kind of jobs they used to get in Internet companies or in consulting firms aren't there anymore and have started to look, for example, in teaching. One of the things we just saw with today's employment numbers is an increase in employment in the education sector.

Just ten years ago or a couple years ago, I might write one recommendation letter a year for someone to be a teacher. This year I've written six or seven. And Teach for America, I believe has reported a tripling of applications to that program. The other way students respond is by postponing entry into the labor market and engaging in other activities, some of which might be building their skills for the labor market, human capital, internships or even just backpacking.

RAY SUAREZ:

And is this something that sometimes can signal a real change in direction, or is it just a way to effectively tread water while you're waiting to see what happens, how it all shakes out?

CECILIA CONRAD:

I think it is a little bit of both. One of the things that's sort of different this time around than in earlier recessions that I at least might remember– my students don't remember them but I do– is that I see quite a bit more interest in public service. I don't know how much of that is link to the September 11 and the aftermath of that. In the past, what would I see is students would apply to graduate school. That doesn't seem quite as popular this year.

RAY SUAREZ:

So what are we looking at as far as Marilyn Mackes, down the road? Is this something that takes sometime to straighten itself out?

MARILYN MACKES:

Well, you know, we've been asking employers, you know, what their projections are for the coming recruiting season and it is a little bit early for them to come forward and know exactly what that was. Quite honestly, more than half of them are unsure about what recruiting is going to be like for this coming year. So I think what we find is that the employment market really lags a little bit behind what's happening in the economy. The good news is, and Cecilia has identified this, is that there are some bright spots out there: Education, public service.

The federal government, for example, is a great place right now in terms of employment opportunity. They're actually projecting a 16 percent increase this year. It's not only because of recent events, I think, that have really engaged more of a need and concern for public service, but also there's going to be a tremendous need because of upcoming retirements in the federal government. So the federal agencies have really been aggressive this year. They have the most presence on campus of any other type of organization. And then there are some other industries that are doing well as well — probably not surprised given that the environment that we are in right now, that insurance is doing pretty well. They're actually projecting a 30 percent increase. So even though the market is pretty– the employment market is pretty flat right now, I think we do see some bright spots out there.

RAY SUAREZ:

So given what Marilyn Mackes just said Brian Krueger, what advice do you have for soon to be graduates?

BRIAN KRUEGER:

It is important to note that for a lot of the larger employers, most of the entry-level hiring programs for 200 the, meaning the graduates that have just come out have been completed but one of the surveys we ran at CollegeGrad.com show the smaller companies are actually in many cases seeing more hiring. I think that's a good note on the only for entry-level hiring but for the economy. Sometimes those entry-level, smaller firms can be more difficult to find. It is important that college grads broaden out their job search. They shouldn't just focus on the traditional ways they have been looking.

And I think it's important to understand the people that are graduating this year saw the grads coming out in 1999 and 2000, many of them getting multiple offers and they're wondering, what happened? What happened to that great job market? Well, it's still out there. There are jobs out there to be had but they're going to be more undercover, they're going to require research to find that information. It is important to broaden out your network, to look at a multitude of different opportunities, to become more flexible, look more broadly geographically, look at more job types than you might have otherwise looked at. Look at more industries. As Marilyn pointed out, with many of those industries, as well as the defense industry, maybe some of the industries you wouldn't have thought of otherwise, broaden out the job search and again it still comes down to job search basics, job search 101. You still have to be successful in your job search to get the offer and to get the job.

MARILYN MACKES:

If I may, I'd like to add that it has never been more critical than it is right now for college students to really stay connected with their career centers, the office is for career development on their campuses. Most of the career center offices offer 24-7 services and certainly will continue to offer the services well beyond graduation. And with the kind of technology that we have now, that access to resources and information on who's out there, who's hiring, they offer all kinds of virtual seminars and tools for students for graduates to use as they're going about their job search. These typically, these career centers by the way, are not just there for the on campus interviewing where larger companies come to the campus to recruit but they're there to be a service for the other type of job search Brian is referring to.

RAY SUAREZ:

Cecilia Conrad, we have just been talking about new graduates staying in contact with career development offices long after they've left the university. And Brian Krueger was talking about people who are still looking now even after they've been given their diploma. Is there an extent to which the numbers understate the difficulties that college graduates might be facing? Because you're counted as employed even if you worked a couple of hours last week, but it may not be what you wanted to do. It may be part time instead of full time. It may be in an industry that's a far cry from what you have' been trained or taught in.

CECILIA CONRAD:

That's all very true. But I think it is important to realize that a college degree is still one of the best assets you can have in this type of labor market. The unemployment rate among college graduates, not recent ones but just overall in the labor market is much lower than what it is for the population as a whole. And so yes, it's true, some people may be sort of treading water as we said earlier, waiting for the right job or the one that's the perfect match. But to some extent, that's always true, part of the search process. I think it's important to realize that the college graduates are still doing relatively well, relative to some other population groups.

RAY SUAREZ:

And what about those who may be worried and recent statistics say that kids are coming out of four-year programs with more debt than ever, about servicing that debt? Is that something that will end up even affecting their parents economically?

CECILIA CONRAD:

It certainly potentially could. I mean one of the hesitancies I've seen with students about going into public service or these other fields is that they tend to be lower paying and they're concerned about meeting debt obligations, concerned about having health insurance. They're concerned about contributing towards their families, particularly those who may be in the first generation to go to college. So this is a concern for them, and I certainly hope that the outlook looks brighter soon.

RAY SUAREZ:

Cecilia Conrad, other guests, thank you all.