Democratic and GOP strategists assess midterm landscape in final week

Amna Nawaz:

Well, for more on how the races are shaping up in these final days, we turn now to the insights of Democratic strategist Mo Elleithee and Republican strategist Doug Heye.

Good to see you both.

Doug Heye, Republican Strategist:

Good to be with you.

Mo Elleithee, Democratic Strategist:

Hi.

Amna Nawaz:

Less than a week to go for that final day of voting in these midterm elections. So far, as you both seen and have said, the indicators are good for Democrats. It's a matter of how good a night it will be.

So, Doug, what are Republicans bracing for? Is it a blue wave, a blue tsunami, a blue ripple? What do you expect?

Doug Heye:

First, they're prepared to lose the House of Representatives. Every conversation I have had with Republicans has been that seems to be a done deal. The question is, is, what is that margin? And we don't really know at this point.

And it goes to ultimately what is turnout going to be. And that then goes to the United States Senate. And I can't talk to a single person who can tell you anything that is solid or predictable about what's going to happen in pick your seven states.

Amna Nawaz:

Mo, what are you -- how are you looking at it?

Mo Elleithee:

Yes, I think that's exactly right.

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Mo Elleithee:

The margin in the House is going to matter for governing, right, for running the House? If it all goes as expected. Speaker Jeffries needs a little bit of a cushion, because we have now seen several consecutive speakers who have had incredibly small margins.

But the Senate, I think it's a coin flip at this point. I think Democrats are in a really good position, much stronger position. I think they will, at the very least, pick up seats. The question is how many. Lisa was talking about the need for four. I think a lot of people are hoping that it's actually five just in case John Fetterman decides after the new year to have some fun with the math.

Amna Nawaz:

What do you think are the most likely seats for Democrats to pick up from the Senate?

Mo Elleithee:

I think North Carolina is done.

Amna Nawaz:

I think Ohio is looking really good. I think Kansas is looking better and better. Texas is a coin flip. People are feeling really good about Alaska as well.

Doug Heye:

And everyone I talk to, R or D, when you ask about specific states, they sort of make that face that Mo made. I don't really know what's going to happen in Iowa.

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Doug Heye:

I don't really know what's going to happen in Michigan.

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Doug Heye:

There are a lot of states like that.

Amna Nawaz:

Well, that may be your answer when I ask for this next question as well. But I want to point to what The New York Times showed in their latest poll about South Carolina this morning, a reliably red state there, but the Senate race between Darline Graham and Annie Andrews is now effectively tied.

Doug, is that an outlier or a warning sign for Republicans?

Doug Heye:

It's a real warning sign. It's a warning sign in this race for two reasons.

One, Darline Graham just hasn't been a candidate that's really caught fire, been incredibly weak and weak support from within the party. But it also tells us where Donald Trump's numbers are in South Carolina, like they are everywhere else.

And when I was at the Republican National Committee in 2010, our magic number for Obama was 46. If Donald Trump were at 46 percent approval right now, we're not talking about Iowa or Michigan or Maine or a lot of these other states. It'd be a very good night for Republicans. His numbers are just so critically low, even in South Carolina.

Amna Nawaz:

Can a Democrat win in South Carolina, Mo?

Mo Elleithee:

I think they can.

I mean, look, we all have -- every Democrat has memories of Lindsey Graham's last race against Democrat Jaime Harrison, where the polls showed it was tied headed into Election Day and he ended up winning by double digits. The big difference is that Lindsey Graham was so popular among South Carolinians.

Darline Graham is not. By a double-digit margin, the voters are saying they don't think she's qualified to be in the United States Senate. Candidate quality really, really matters, and that's the underlying factor beyond the national numbers, beyond the president's number.

You see where Republicans are really struggling across the country is because they nominated really bad candidates in those states.

Amna Nawaz:

Well, you mentioned Alaska, and I want to put to you another big headline today related to that Senate race, more reporting from The New York Times that Democrats actively recruited a spoiler candidate in Dan J. Sullivan to join the Senate race to boost the Democratic candidate, Mary Peltola.

He, of course, has virtually the same name as the Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan. Late today at Joint Base Andrews, President Trump called on Peltola to resign from the race. He also said this to reporters. Take a listen.

DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States: It's a fraud, and they said they didn't do it, and they did do it and they got caught. And, in fact, it was the plot by the Democrat Party. And, frankly, they should be -- I think they should be prosecuted. To me, that's voter fraud at the highest level.

Amna Nawaz:

Mo, how do you look at this? Is this unethical but legal? What happened here?

Mo Elleithee:

It's boneheaded but legal. It's dumb but legal. I don't like it when parties do this. I don't like this in Alaska. I didn't like it when Republicans were funding the petition drives to get Green Party candidates on the ballot in a number of states. I hate this.

Now, the reason it's boneheaded is because this is one of those stories where the headlines are going to be worse than the impact. Dan Sullivan number two isn't going to have that big of an impact on this race. He didn't in the primary. Ranked-choice voting...

Amna Nawaz:

Point out to folks, this is what the ballot looks like, yes.

Mo Elleithee:

Right.

And ranked-choice voting, which they have in Alaska, will actually help mitigate any confusion. If people -- the Senator Dan Sullivan campaign is a running ads saying rank Dan and Dan first and second. So this way it works.

If Dan Sullivan, Senator Sullivan loses, it's not going to be because of this. It's going to be because of the incredibly high cost of gas and cost of living in the state of Alaska. There's no reason a Peltola campaign needed to create this story.

Amna Nawaz:

What's your take, Doug?

Doug Heye:

If you watch the Ramaswamy campaign over the last week, they have not been able to talk about what they want to talk about. They have been talking about their ad and trying to defend it. It's the same problem for Peltola.

Her campaign messaging now has been derailed. She's going to have to talk about this all day, every day. What did you know and when did you know it? And I think nationally it's a problem for Democrats as well, because Democrats will tell you they're very nervous about what Donald Trump may do with a loaded gun. This is a very silver bullet they just gave him.

Amna Nawaz:

Well, to that point, we know the DOJ was already suing to potentially block the certification of that Alaska vote. President Trump has been calling fraud already in the Alaska race. Does this boost their legal case and does it lead to a long, drawn-out fight after the election?

Doug Heye:

Well, it certainly boosts their political case. Donald Trump would not have been able to credibly say what he said today had we not had this revelation from The New York Times. So the politics for Trump work on this, and he doesn't have a whole lot of politics working for him right now.

And it certainly means that there will be a legal fight if Sullivan doesn't prevail.

Amna Nawaz:

How worried are you, Mo, about other legal fights? We know the president's DOJ have been laying the ground, seeding doubt in some of the electoral systems. Is that a concern among Democrats?

Mo Elleithee:

Sure.

But Democrats have been prepared, and they have been preparing for months, if not years now, building sort of an army of lawyers around the country who are ready to swoop in, in whatever district. After he lost in 2020, we saw just how much he would lean into the courts. And he has every right to do that.

Even though the courts threw out most of those cases, that's the process. So Democrats have been preparing. They have got some really good lawyers out there. The messaging you're hearing, though, more than, look how dangerous this is to the system, is, you're going to be fine, just go vote. Your vote will count. We will take care of the rest.

Amna Nawaz:

Just days to go, and it's all in the voters' hands.

Mo Elleithee, Doug Heye, great to see you both. Thank you.

Doug Heye:

Thanks.