Democratic and GOP strategists discuss what to expect from the Biden-Trump debates

Geoff Bennett:

President Biden and former President Trump have agreed to debate one-on-one, but without the involvement of the Commission on Presidential Debates, which has run those debates since 1988.

Amna Nawaz:

Their agreement came after Biden's campaign laid out terms and dates in a letter this morning, and Biden issued this challenge.

Joe Biden, President of the United States: Well, make my day, pal. I will even do it twice. So let's pick the dates, Donald. I hear you're free on Wednesdays.

Amna Nawaz:

To which Mr. Trump replied online — quote — "Let's get ready to rumble."

Both have accepted offers from CNN and ABC to take part in June and September debates, respectively.

For more on this, I'm joined by Republican strategist Kevin Madden and Democratic strategist Faiz Shakir.

Great to see you both. Thank you for being here.

Kevin Madden, Republican Strategist:

Great to be here.

Amna Nawaz:

Before we jump into the conversation, I think it's worth reminding everyone what it was like when these two faced off back in September of 2020 in their first debate. Here's a clip.

Donald Trump, Former President of the United States (R) and Current U.S. Presidential Candidate: You want to put a lot of new Supreme Court Justices. Radical left.

Joe Biden, President of the United States: Will you shut up, man?

Donald Trump:

Listen, who is on your list, Joe? Who's on your list?

Chris Wallace, Moderator:

Gentlemen, I think we've ended this.

Joe Biden:

This is so unpresidential.

Donald Trump:

He's going to pack the court. He is not going to give a list.

Amna Nawaz:

Faiz, why did the Biden campaign decide to do this now?

Faiz Shakir, Democratic Strategist:

Well, there's a lot of reasons, of course, Amna.

One is, I think they have a sense that they're behind at the moment. You have got to have a debate with Trump. You have got to re-remind people about Trump's record. You have got to engage him on the debate. What would you do about the economy? What's your tax plan?

All those basic questions, they have got to do sooner, rather than later. That's the other element. They'd like it to happen faster, so that they can go bring some intensity and energy back into this race among their Democratic coalition.

Amna Nawaz:

So, Kevin, the terms as they have laid out, that the Biden campaign has laid out, we don't know if Mr. Trump has agreed, but the terms are no audience in a TV studio with a moderator. The mics get cut off after an allotted time.

Will Mr. Trump agree to those and will he stick to those?

Kevin Madden:

Well, look, yes, I think he will agree to them because he does want a debate. I think, first of all, though, one of the important things about campaigns and debates in campaigns is managing expectations.

I think we have to manage the American public's expectations around whether or not this is going to be a very substantive-driven debate. And you see it now with the candidates, the way that they're sort of framing the terms of it. It has a little bit more of a WWF match quality to it than a real substantive debate.

But Trump really wants to demonstrate that he has better command, better control over the issues. And he can put Joe Biden, in his view, on the defensive and also, I think, draw the age contrast, which he thinks works in his favor.

Amna Nawaz:

Well, we will see.

In the meantime, there are some primary results this week that show us what this race could look like, some of the issues, and where Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump could face challenges ahead. If you look at Nebraska's results, in particular, Kevin, they showed Mr. Trump the clear winner here, right, 80 percent of the vote.

But Nikki Haley pulled nearly 18 percent. She dropped out in early March, Kevin. She's been racking up sizable numbers in GOP primaries since then, 22 percent in Indiana, 16 percent in Pennsylvania. Who are those voters? And why don't they like Mr. Trump?

Kevin Madden:

It's a good question. And it's an interesting trend line that she keeps holding that 20 percent line all the way through this late in the game.

Look, these are conscientious objectors inside the Republican Party. They're not happy with Donald Trump as the nominee, and they're sort of offering protest vote for that. This should be an alarm bell for the Trump White — for the Trump campaign.

But it is not necessarily a death knell right now. This is his charge. From here all the way through to November, he has to figure a way to get these voters back. The good news for the Trump campaign is that the issues that are really motivating these voters are issues like inflation and immigration.

So he has a message frame that I think is still going to be able to bring these voters back into his fold by Election Day. The big risk is that they stay home.

Amna Nawaz:

Faiz, as you know, Mr. Biden faces some headwinds with Black voters, in particular.

There was some new numbers from the New York Times/Siena poll this week that showed, in key battleground states, 63 percent of Black voters went for President Biden, 23 percent for President Trump. But while Mr. Biden has the clear majority, the analysis showed that 23 percent would be the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act in 1964.

What does that say about the campaign right now?

Faiz Shakir:

Well, it's not only concerning among Black voters. If you look at Latino voters in Nevada, it's also a concern. You look at young voters, of course, we know that there's some challenges there.

Biden's got to start performing more strongly. I use that word advisedly, strong, because, at this moment, one of the challenges that Trump has on Biden is the question of who's a strong leader. And I think for all of the progressive policymaking that you have seen President Biden do, it hasn't been coupled with the politicking.

If you look at the fact that his FTC and the DOJ, they take on these big cases, we do junk fees, we have got Pete Buttigieg going after airlines, do you see the fact that this policymaking is taking on powerful interests, that this president is strong to take them on, big pharma, you name them?

He's got the agenda. But the politicking doesn't match that agenda yet. And he's got to dial up the question of, am I a strong leader with a strong, firm hand on the steering wheel in a vision for the next four years in the politicking, not so much on the agenda, just reassuring that voting base, who is largely driven by an economic narrative, that this president is strong and ready to take them on.

Amna Nawaz:

There's a few Senate primary results I want to put to you, too, because, as you know, it's currently a 51-49 split, Democrats in the majority there.

In Maryland, Angela Alsobrooks beat David Trone in the Democratic primary. She's now going to face Republican Governor Larry Hogan for a seat that a Democrat is freeing up, Ben Cardin. In West Virginia, meanwhile, Jim Justice, the governor, won the Republican Senate primary. That's also going to be an open seat being vacated by Joe Manchin.

Kevin, when you look at those results, Maryland is particularly interesting because Hogan is popular because he's kept things local and he's focused on his state. He will surely be pulled into national politics. How will he fare there?

Kevin Madden:

Well it is a — I think it's a tough challenge right now for national Democrats.

And they look at that state. That should be a traditional Democratic stronghold. But you do. You have a very popular governor, somebody who's seen as more of a moderate, somebody who is focused on a lot of the pragmatic issues that really drive suburban voters that I think are going to be important in that state.

So I think one of the big challenges for the Democrats is, how much resources do they really put into that state? And if those resources are going into Maryland, are they not going to a state like Ohio or a state like Montana, which is really going to affect the balance of the Senate map?

So I feel like it's advantage Republicans right now when you look at the overall Senate map. Maryland is still a very tough, traditional Democratic state. This is going to be a race that's pretty hard-fought. But the fact that you're taking resources from other states, I think, bodes well for the Republicans.

Amna Nawaz:

Could Dems lose control of the Senate?

Faiz Shakir:

I'm not too worried about Maryland. I think Alsobrooks is a strong Democratic contender. And I think I would have been more worried had it been David Trone, a person who spent $61 million of his own money and didn't win people over.

So I think you have got a stronger candidate. Biden will overperform, beat Trump by a lot. In order for Hogan to win, he'd have to way overperform Trump, but he's going to be dragged by his own problems of being challenged to defend Trump's record.

I think the map in general, if you look at Democrats, it's hard to maintain the majority. However, it's still lined up where you have a very strong chance to maintain a status quo. I think, if you look at Ohio, Montana, the places that Republicans were hoping for pickups, Democrats are in strong positions there.

You look at Wisconsin, where Tammy Baldwin is the senator, Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, continue to maintain strength. Where Kyrsten Sinema is retiring, Ruben Gallego, a good candidate who I think will maintain that seat against Kari Lake. So I think it's still set up, but the fact that you're losing Joe Manchin West Virginia, it's not clear where the pickup for a Democrat would be this cycle.

I mean, there's some outside-of-the-box candidates, and one is in Nebraska, Dan Osborn, independent candidate. Unclear who he would side with, but I think a pro-union guy who's running against Deb Fischer. That's my outside-of-the-box race.

Amna Nawaz:

We will take outside-the-box takes any time.

Faiz Shakir, Kevin Madden, always great to see you both. Thank you.

Kevin Madden:

Good to be with you.

Faiz Shakir:

Thank you.