Democratic and GOP strategists on how Trump's unpopularity is shaping the midterms

Geoff Bennett:

Well, the latest polling for the upcoming midterms shows a tilt in Democrats' favor.

For an insiders' view of the final weeks of the campaigns, we turn now to the insights of Democratic strategist Mo Elleithee and Republican Doug Heye.

It's always great to see you both.

Doug Heye, Republican Strategist:

Thank you.

Mo Elleithee, Democratic Strategist:

Hey.

Geoff Bennett:

So, Doug, Republicans are asking voters to give them two more years of unified government. Beyond defending President Trump, what's the affirmative case they're making for what they would actually do with that power?

Doug Heye:

I think the tough reality for them is, there's not much more that they're able to do because of that. And in large part, that's because of Donald Trump.

He so dominates the call the conversation all day, every day, usually with things that aren't on topic for what candidates want to be talking about. If I'm Michael Whatley in North Carolina or Ashley Hinson in Iowa, I want to be talking about, here's what Republicans have done to lower costs, and here's what they're going to do over the next two years.

But the reality is, it's harder for them to have that conversation because of the self-created Trump outrages du jour that may be happening right now while we're shooting this and we're unaware of it. But the reality with Donald Trump is, these happen all the time.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Mo, there are echoes of 2006 here. You have got an unpopular war, a president with low approval ratings, a midterm election that has become a referendum in many ways on this White House. Democrats picked up 31 House seats that year. What's different this time, if anything?

Mo Elleithee:

Well, look, I think Donald Trump makes everything different, right? And he has for the past decade.

But there are two issues that are dominating the minds of most voters, I think, today. One is the high cost of living, primarily as it plays out at the gas pump, and, number two, corruption in government. That does have echoes of 2006.

But Democrats have a very easy way to point to that with Donald Trump. Cost of living is up primarily because of President Trump's tariffs and because of this war in Iran. And every day, he's giving more fodder. He and his administration are giving more fodder for the belief that they're -- that government is corrupt.

Democrats can just step up and say, Congress has abdicated its responsibility under Republican control. Give us a chance, and we can finally hold his feet to the fire.

Doug Heye:

And, Geoff, I worked a Senate campaign, Republican Senate campaign, in 2006. And it's a very hard needle to thread when your president is unpopular to try and be critical, but also appeal to voters.

And the difference between 2006 and now -- there are a whole lot of them -- congressional map is a good example -- but the reality is, we weren't going to get called out publicly by the president or anybody else. We might get talked to privately and then be told by Danny Diaz, who was comms director at the RNC then, do what you got to do. We get it.

The reality for all of these Republicans is, if they say, this and this is this and this and this I do differently than Donald Trump, Trump could attack them at any moment.

Geoff Bennett:

Yes.

You mentioned Ashley Hinson in Iowa. Diesel prices in Iowa top $6 a gallon right now. And the candidates there had their final debate last night. You got the Republican Ashley Hinson, the Democrat Josh Turek. They both oppose President Trump's proposed diesel deal with Russia, but they disagree over the war in Iran.

Take a look at this.

Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA), Senatorial Candidate: We need to lower gas prices in this country. We need to lower diesel prices, but I don't think we need to be making a deal with Russia to do it.

Josh Turek (D), Iowa Senatorial Candidate: We actually agree on this. But let's remember exactly why we're in this situation. We are in this situation because of this unnecessary war in Iran that Ashley Hinson voted in favor of continuing seven times.

Question:

Would you switch your vote today on the War Powers Act in order to end the conflict in Iran?

Rep. Ashley Hinson:

I don't think we need another resolution on the House floor. I think the president and the U.S. military can bring it to the end.

Geoff Bennett:

Is that the dance that Republicans have to do? They're sticking by Trump on the big stuff, the war in Iran, but breaking with him on issues like his proposed diesel deal.

Doug Heye:

It's what they're trying to figure out as they campaign day to day. Wouldn't surprise me to see any of these Republicans say, you know what, we need to go back into Washington, go into session now and have that vote. If that happened, it wouldn't be surprising. But, again, it comes with a very real risk.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Mo, if we shift our focus to Michigan, you have President Trump. He's calling Michigan's Democratic Senate candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, he called him a -- quote -- "radical extremist terrorist sympathizer," and we have seen similar re rhetoric from other Republicans.

How should Democrats respond when a candidate's Muslim identity becomes the target of attacks?

Mo Elleithee:

Yes. I mean, he's gone so far as to call him Mohammed, right? Like, that's not his name, but it is so obvious what they are trying to do and I think why they are trying to do it.

The president doesn't have a record that his party can run on. He is underwater in terms of his approval rating on every major issue, including some of the issues that got him elected, you know, the economy, immigration. He's underwater on those.

So the only thing they can do is try to change the subject, try to deflect and try to otherize an appeal to fear. Now, Democrats for the past 10 years have taken the bait every single time he's done that. Don't take the bait this time, because what the president really can't deflect on is the high cost of living, the high cost of gas, and the corruption in his administration.

And I think El-Sayed's doing actually a good job of not taking the bait and bringing it back to that every single time.

Geoff Bennett:

Where is the line between challenging a candidate's political views and using his religion to cast suspicion on his loyalty to the country?

Doug Heye:

So I think Mo will remember, when I was communications director for the RNC, I put out pretty forceful statements saying that not only were we not questioning President Obama's religion. I remember changing the line to say Christianity to make it clear that this was unacceptable for our candidates.

I think, though, what we see in Michigan, El-Sayed is an extreme candidate, seems to really struggle with talking about whether or not he can even disagree or condemn the killings that we have seen by the Iranian government. So he's put himself in this position. And also, when he pivots, he always goes back to it's AIPAC's fault, it's Israel's fault.

So part of this conversation is self-created by an extremist candidate. I think one of the interesting things about this campaign is Republicans and Democrats in key states have made the same mistake, nominating people who in any other context would be unelectable.

That's El-Sayed in Michigan, and that is certainly the case with Ken Paxton in Texas.

Mo Elleithee:

But I will say, we have been hearing this kind of rhetoric from Republicans even before El-Sayed became the Democratic nominee and in other states.

When you have mainstream -- today's mainstream Republicans doing exactly what Doug asked them not to do back then and making comments like -- like there's no place in our society for Muslims, no place in our country for Muslims, that tells you it's a very different Republican Party than the one that you used to be a spokesperson for.

Doug Heye:

And the comment that the vice president made about James Talarico, a stupid joke, not effective. If we want to beat James Talarico, that's not how we do it.

Geoff Bennett:

Doug Heye, Mo Elleithee our thanks to you both.

Doug Heye:

Thank you.

Mo Elleithee:

Thank you.

Geoff Bennett:

That's great.