Democratic strategist on the new anti-partisan swing voters

Amna Nawaz:

Democratic voters in Massachusetts bucked a national trend last night, voting to back incumbent Democrats in Congress. Incumbent Senator Ed Markey held onto his spot on the ballot, staving off a primary challenge from Congressman Seth Moulton in a race that frequently focused on age and the party's direction.

It wasn't just the Senate race. House incumbents Richard Neal, Stephen Lynch, and Dan Koh all beat their own challengers last night. The results skew from a national narrative Democrats have faced all year, that their voters are eager for new, younger leadership.

Joining me now to break down what all this means is Democratic strategist and pollster Terrance Woodbury. His work focuses mostly on young and minority voters.

Terrance, welcome to the "News Hour." Thanks for joining us.

Terrance Woodbury, Democratic Pollster and Strategist: Thank you so much for having me. Glad to be here.

Amna Nawaz:

All right, let's start with the news out of Massachusetts.

You had 80-year-old Senator Markey there fending off a challenge from 47-year-old Seth Moulton. Markey has been in Congress longer than Moulton has been alive. And as we noted, Democratic voters keep saying they want change. So how did Markey win?

Terrance Woodbury:

A lot of the analysis has been focused on the identity and the ideology of the candidates, rather than the frustration and appetite of the electorate, right? And so when we look at the electorate that Ed Markey won with, Ed Markey won overwhelmingly.

I mean, he won everybody everywhere, 65 percent of the -- almost 65 percent of the vote. But he won, he did significantly better amongst -- in precincts that had a larger Black or Hispanic population. I don't think that this has been that this primary has taught us that Democratic voters are looking for young versus old or moderate versus progressive, but that they're looking for do something versus do nothing.

And Ed Markey ran on a record of what he has done, not just the promise of what he will do, and he was rewarded for that.

Amna Nawaz:

Terrance, I know you have undertaken a yearlong project of polling and focus groups looking closely at the Black political engagement in this country. Black voters, of course, traditionally are -- represent the strongest support base for Democrats.

But, according to exit polls, when you look over recent years, Democratic presidential candidates have now seen a nine-point drop in support from Black voters between 2008 and today, an 18-point drop from Black men specifically over that same time period.

You said recently that Black voters are increasingly turning into swing voters. Tell me more about that. Why?

Terrance Woodbury:

Yes, we have seen this in the Trump era, that there's a new swing voter that's been determining the outcome of these elections, that the conventional swing voter that we have often looked to, suburban women, white women, soccer moms, Joe the Plumber, all of these kind of monikers of the conventional swing voter, when in fact it is now men of color and youth of color that are swinging the most back and forth.

A lot of what is contributing to that is what I would call the Trump-curious voters, that there were men of color who were frustrated with both parties. They're not swinging because they're bipartisan. In fact, they're swinging because they're anti-partisan. They hate both parties. They feel like they have been failed by both parties.

And so some of those Trump-curious voters who gave him a shot in 2024, not because they liked him -- they didn't have a very high favorability of him, but they were willing to try something different, and specifically willing to try the candidate that was offering to blow up and disrupt the systems that had failed them.

Amna Nawaz:

You have spoken previously about the need for candidates to speak to the most politically disengaged and cynical voters.

When you're looking at those who are now identified in your work as swing voters, you're looking at the Black voting base, what is your work in polling tell you about what is driving them to the polls? What is the animating issue for these upcoming elections?

Terrance Woodbury:

We have seen a remarkable shift that happened right around the Callais decision, the Callais Supreme Court decision that gutted the Voting Rights Act.

And that is, when Black voters feel their power, feel their votes or their well-being under attack, that they respond in kind in what I have called a blacklash.

(Crosstalk)

Amna Nawaz:

I should just note the Callais decision allowed Louisiana, new congressional district maps to move ahead.

Terrance Woodbury:

Yes, exactly, the Callais Supreme Court decision that gutted the what was left of the Supreme Court -- I'm sorry -- of the Voting Rights Act.

And I have often described the South as not -- the South are not red states. They have been oppressed states. And that Callais decision really put that oppression front and center for Black voters. And since then, we have seen the level of engagement increase. But, most important, we saw a surge in Black turnout.

Amna Nawaz:

Terrance, briefly before I let you go, we know that no voting bloc is a monolith, right? And you see generational divides you have looked at more closely as well. Tell me about those.

Terrance Woodbury:

What we have seen more recently is that the real gap is not the gender gap in politics. It is a generation gap. It is that young people are beginning to respond and show up and participate in politics very differently.

You know, this is what we call walk and chew gum. We are going to have to address the kitchen table issues that's preventing these young people from realizing the American dream -- the American dream, while also addressing these identity issues that are defining many -- much of their political reality.

Amna Nawaz:

All right, that is Democratic strategist and pollster Terrance Woodbury joining us tonight.

Terrance, thank you so much. Good to speak with you.

Terrance Woodbury:

Thanks for having me.