Dissecting what the latest primary races mean for November elections

Geoff Bennett:

Well, half-a-dozen states held their primary elections yesterday, giving a clearer picture of how some of the nation's high-profile midterm races will shape up this fall.

In California, ballots are still being counted in several key races, chief among them the race for governor. Three candidates are locked in a fight for the top two spots that will advance to November's run-off, on the Democratic side, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and billionaire activist Tom Steyer and Republican media commentator Steve Hilton.

Xavier Becerra (D):

It appears that we are on track to advance to November.

Tom Steyer (D):

We're going to wait until every ballot is counted. We're going to give democracy time to work, and we know we finished really strong.

Steve Hilton (R):

Change is coming to California and it's long overdue.

Geoff Bennett:

Meantime, in Iowa, the matchups for both Senate and governor are now set.

In the Senate race for Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson will face Democratic challenger and former Paralympian Josh Turek to replace retiring Senator Joni Ernst. And in the race for governor, businessman Zach Lahn narrowly edged out Trump-backed Congressman Randy Feenstra. He will face Democratic state auditor Rob Sand in what's set to be one of the nation's most watched gubernatorial races this fall.

For more on what these primary results mean heading into the fall, we are joined now by Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections.

Always good to see you.

Nathan Gonzales:

Yes.

Geoff Bennett:

So let's start in California, shall we? The governor's race is still being sorted out. These mail-in votes are still being counted. But it appears that the Democrat Xavier Becerra is going to face Republican Steve Hilton this fall.

In this crowded Democratic field, how did Xavier Becerra edge out the rest?

Nathan Gonzales:

Well, I think that he ended up being the safe pick. I mean, remember that we have gone through many chapters with this race and there was a chapter where it looked like Democrats were going to get locked out of the general election because of California's top two system and the dozens of Democratic candidates.

There was a chance that two Republicans were going to finish. So that potential for catastrophe, along with Congressman Eric Swalwell's implosion and exit from the race, then caused some Democrats to say there needs to be some consolidation. Becerra looked like a safe pick.

And it looks like, at a minimum, we know Democrats avoided that catastrophic outcome. We will see. And, by the end, because there are still so many votes to be counted, Becerra could finish ahead -- finish ahead moving into November after these primary ballots are counted.

Geoff Bennett:

And California is among the states that did the mid-decade redistricting, redrew their congressional maps. Which races are you watching most closely?

Nathan Gonzales:

One of them is California's Sixth District in the Sacramento area. This was a district Democrats drew to elect a Democrat.

But, right now, the top two contenders are Republican, now independent Congressman Kevin Kiley and a Republican candidate, Michael Stansfield. If that continues, that means that you're going to have a Republican and a former Republican in the general election and no Democrat.

But with the remaining ballots that are coming in, I would expect Richard Pan, the Democratic candidate, who's narrowly in third to inch into one of those top two spots and Democrats will have a chance to get a district that they have drawn for themselves.

We're also watching the 22nd District, which is in the Central Valley. Congressman David Valadao, the Republican is moving on. It looks like Democrat Randy Villegas is going to be challenger. And Valadao has this reputation for always winning tough races, but he lost in President Trump's first midterm.

He's at risk in this second, Trump's second midterm and it's a race to watch.

Geoff Bennett:

Let's shift our focus to Alabama, shall we? Because the Supreme Court allowed Alabama to move forward with the congressional map that eliminates one of the state's two majority-Black districts, as you well know.

So coming on the heels of other voting rights and redistricting battles, what does this ruling mean for Democrats' hopes of winning back the House?

Nathan Gonzales:

I mean, it makes it one seat more challenging. It looks like Democrats will lose a seat in Alabama. And when you look at redistricting nationwide with the cases and the maps, it looks like Republicans will net more seats as a result of it.

But it's not going to be enough to shield them from the potential midterm backlash when the president's job approval rating is barely at 40 percent or the backlash against the party in power at a time when the country is heading the wrong direction.

Geoff Bennett:

And in Iowa, Democrats are bullish about their chances in the Senate race there. What informs that optimism?

Nathan Gonzales:

Well, Iowa is a good example of Republican states that normally we would not be talking about, but because the president is in such a weak political position, the economy is in a weak position, we're talking about Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, Texas, South Carolina.

And Iowa is a state that Democrats need to win at least two Republican states in the Senate to get to the majority. They might need to win three if they can't win Maine, but it's a possibility because of the overall political environment that we're seeing.

Geoff Bennett:

You mentioned Maine. Give us a sense of what's happening there and what it means for the upcoming vote.

Nathan Gonzales:

Well, Graham Platner, the likely Democratic nominee, the primary next week, is undergoing, is facing all sorts of problems with how many women who is not his wife is he texting, is his chest tattoo a Nazi symbol or not, and -- but yet he was politically strong enough to push the sitting governor out of the primary.

And so Democrats now are wrestling with, this is a must-win seat for the majority, because it's Republican Susan Collins in a Democratic state, but he is facing all sorts of things. And it's not just things that happened in the distant past. The tattoo can kind of be -- said, well, that was when he was younger. This other thing with texting other women, that's something that happened fairly recently.

And so we will see what else comes out. And all that to say, he is a Democrat in a Democratic state in a good Democratic cycle. He still has a chance to win.

Geoff Bennett:

And there are lots of people who aren't giving him a pass for that tattoo at all, whether he was younger or not.

Nathan Gonzales:

Right.

Geoff Bennett:

But let's talk about California, because, even as we say most people are focused on that governor's race, maybe. I think a lot of people are focused on the mayor's race in Los Angeles with Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt.

Nathan Gonzales:

Sure.

Geoff Bennett:

There's another candidate there. Again, votes are still being counted, but what's the latest?

Nathan Gonzales:

Well, I mean, I expect Mayor Bass to end up winning reelection. It's been quite a saga. I think that Spencer Pratt's emergence onto the scene is an example of voters view politicians with such disdain and are so upset with the current status quo that they're willing to give any non-politician a second look, a third look.

And I think that helped him kind of get into this conversation. But, fundamentally, L.A. is still a Democratic city. And I expect a Democrat to win that race.

Geoff Bennett:

Nathan Gonzales, thanks again. That's a lot to run through, lots of states, lots of cities.

(Laughter)

Nathan Gonzales:

On little sleep, but we will make it -- we made it happen.

Geoff Bennett:

Indeed.

Good to see you, friend.

Nathan Gonzales:

Good to see you.