Divided Nation: Background Report

RAY SUAREZ:

It's an evenly divided and an increasingly polarized landscape. That's according to the latest survey by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. The political camps are nearly identical in size but disagree profoundly on issues such as national security, government's role, big business, and equal rights for minorities. Party identification has always fluctuated in the country, but now the number of voters identifying with the Republican and Democratic parties is almost identical.

During the 2000 presidential campaign, some 36 percent of registered voters saw themselves as Democrats and 31 percent as Republicans. Three years later, in the aftermath of 9/11 and the Iraq War, that gap has narrowed to 34 percent-33 percent, and in the meantime the policy gap is widening. For instance, 72 percent of Democrats say government should do more to help needy people even if it means a bigger deficit. 39 percent of Republicans agree. 66 percent of Republicans say the best way to ensure peace is through military strength, 44 percent of Democrats agree. To help us sort through these and other findings we're joined by Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center.

Andy, right off the top of your report you say that the country took four body blows a disputed election, a recession, a terrorist attack, and a war. And you: That we ended up right where we started?

ANDREW KOHUT:

We ended up 50/50 but more 50/50 than we were four years ago. Because the issues are more intense than they were. This is a time of great emotion and problems for the country and we don't agree. We don't agree on security issues whether preventive wars are the right thing to do.

We don't agree on how to deal with the business scandal and Republicans and Democrats are going off in their own different directions and that period of national unity that we saw after the attacks not only has dissipated we have gone in the other direction.

RAY SUAREZ:

What is some of the evidence that we are evenly divided as a people but more polarized?

ANDREW KOHUT:

The party numbers have shown. We have been asking the same question since 1998. The average difference between Republicans and Democrats was 75 percent over 25 questions in the poll. That's much higher in almost every year since 1997.

RAY SUAREZ:

When you say average difference, you mean the number saying something is true and the number of the other party saying something is not the case.

ANDREW KOHUT:

Not true.

RAY SUAREZ:

It's wider?

ANDREW KOHUT:

The previous high point was 1994. It was a banner year for political discontent in the Republicans won the Congress but now we have not only the Republicans taking a different point of view than the rest of the country but the Republicans and the Democrats going in different directions over these issues that have arisen given all the incredible things that have happened to us in three and a half years.

RAY SUAREZ:

What are some of the examples of kinds of issues when you see that partisan split most effectively?

ANDREW KOHUT:

How do deal with civil liberties in war on terrorism. Preventive wars as I mentioned or what to do with the needs for a needy people, the Democrats have become, unlike the mid 1990s much more insistent that we spend more money to help needy people.

The Democrats have become more traditionally liberal.The Republicans remain opposed — much more opposed than Democrats to such measures. So there's real concrete arguments about what the size of the prescription drug benefit should be, as in the case of social spending. And all along the line, we see Republicans and Democrats arguing not only here in Washington but totally different views all around the country.

RAY SUAREZ:

With that Republican and Democratic split being at 34 and 33 math tells you there's another third somewhere. Let's talk about independents. It's a large group. Are they more like Republicans on some things and more like Democrats on others?

ANDREW KOHUT:

They are more like Democrats on security issues. There's been a turn away from the hard line position both from the point of view of the Democrat militant positions and the point of view of Democrats and independents but they agree with Republicans more on other issues on how to deal with business regulation. It's a — the independents divide about evenly between those who say they lean more to the Republican and those who lean to the Democratic Party.

RAY SUAREZ:

Anything we know about the leaners are they more likely, less likely to vote in elections?

ANDREW KOHUT:

They are always less likely to vote. The Republican leaners are a little less committed to President Bush than the Democratic leaners are committed to voting for President Bush's opponent 12 months from now.

So there seems to be a little trouble there in the middle for the Republicans but this is a particularly bad patch for President Bush with the — with Iraq and the economy seeming to not improve despite the 7 percent growth in the last quarter.

RAY SUAREZ:

Well, along with the issue questions, you ask questions about on theoretical heats in the presidential race. What did you come up with?

ANDREW KOHUT:

An anomaly. The public is divided concept you'll over whether President Bush deserves another term but when we test President Bush against a range of Democratic opponents and Senator Hillary Clinton, President Bush has a lead over all of them.

Now, some of them are not well known but even among those who are well known there's not a candidate who jumps out or people are willing to use as a place marker in opposition to President Bush, that suggests President Bush may be stronger than he is when the pollsters test him against an unnamed Democrat.

RAY SUAREZ:

Is that something that shows change in previous elections. Is that something that shows a lot of flux over time? That unnamed opposite partisan versus a particular person?

ANDREW KOHUT:

Well, President Bush's father tested evenly against an unnamed Democrat and when Bill Clinton was ultimately named, he defeated him. But Bill Clinton tested evenly against an unnamed Republican and when senator dole was named the Republican President Clinton did so well.

The unnamed horse race questions say more about how people are feeling about the president at any given time rather than what they are going to do 12 months down the road when there's a real candidate and people can do a side by side and say this is the better person.

RAY SUAREZ:

Andrew Kohut thanks a lot.