Experts weigh in on threat posed by Iran and line U.S. is walking to avoid regional war

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• Amna Nawaz:

  One of the U.S. priorities since the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack has been preventing violence from expanding across the region.

  But, overnight, the U.S. launched strikes at Iranian-backed groups in both Iraq and Yemen following attacks by those groups. And once again today, Houthi rebels fired missiles at multiple American ships.

  Nick Schifrin looks at the widening U.S. military campaign and the threat posed by Iran.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Just after midnight in Iraq, U.S. strikes targeted an Iranian-backed militia. Two hours later, in Yemen, the U.S. military targeted Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, strikes in two different Middle Eastern countries against two different Iranian-supported groups designed, in the words of National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, to prevent wider war

• John Kirby, NSC Coordinator For Strategic Communications:

  We don't want to see the conflict escalate. We don't want to see some broader war. We're not looking for a war or conflict with anybody. We're actually trying to de-escalate.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps has long supported what Iran calls an axis of resistance to conduct forward defense against its enemies.

  In Iraq, that includes Kataib Hezbollah, a Shia paramilitary group that the U.S. labels terrorists, but is also part of the Iraqi military that helped defeat ISIS. Last weekend, the U.S. military says the group fired rockets and ballistic missiles at this U.S. military base, Al Asad, causing — quote — "a number of American injuries."

  The U.S. military says last night's U.S. strikes target a Kataib Hezbollah headquarters, storage and training sites.

• John Kirby:

  We're not going to hesitate to take necessary action to protect our troops and our facilities, and we will stay vigilant going forward.

• Nick Schifrin:

  But Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani today called the strikes — quote — "irresponsible escalation" after reiterating a threat to push U.S. troops out of Iraq.

• Mohammed Shia’Al-Sudani, Iraqi Prime Minister (through interpreter):

  After the repercussions and attacks on the Iraqi security headquarters we have the right to start this dialogue immediately in order to reach an agreement on arranging a timetable for the end of the mission of international advisers.

• Nick Schifrin:

  In Yemen, the U.S. says Iran provides the Houthis intelligence, money and the advanced weapons that allow the group to target international shipping; 30 percent of global container traffic sails through the Suez Canal via the Red Sea.

  Dozens of Houthi attacks have forced many ships to reroute around Africa, driving up consumer prices and causing supply chain delays. The shipping company Maersk says today's Houthi attacks targeted two American ships, the Maersk Detroit and the Maersk Chesapeake, as they carried cargo for the U.S. Department of Defense.

  Because of that cargo, they were being escorted by U.S. Navy ships that shot down two Houthi missiles. To stop the missiles, the U.S. hopes Beijing pressures Iran to rein in the Houthis. It's not clear if Beijing's willing to help, but publicly today urged restraint.

• Wang Wenbin, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman (through interpreter):

  China calls for a halt to the harassment of civilian ships and urges relevant parties to refrain from aggravating tensions in the Red Sea.

• Nick Schifrin:

  The U.S. and U.K. have launched nearly 10 rounds of strikes on the Houthis and vow to keep going, said President Biden on Thursday.

  Joe Biden , President of the United States: Well, when you say working, are they stopping the Houthis? No. Are they going to continue? Yes.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Tonight, a Houthi spokesman took credit for today's attacks on American ships and vowed the attacks would continue.

  To discuss tensions in the region and the U.S. response so far, we get two views.

  Michael Doran was a senior director on the George W. Bush National Security Council staff and now directs the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank. And Ali Vaez was a senior political affairs officer at the United Nations and is now the Iran Project director at the International Crisis Group, which describes itself as working to prevent conflict around the world.

  Thanks very much. Welcome to both of you.

  Michael Doran, let me start with you.

  What is your assessment so far on U.S. strikes on Houthis in Yemen and U.S. strikes in Iraq on Iranian-backed groups? Do you believe that the strikes have been effective.

• Michael Doran, Former National Security Council Staffer:

  They're not going to do the job.

  And the president basically just admitted that. And Maersk has also said at the World Economic Forum that this is going to go on, they — for months. That is, that is shipping through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal will be disrupted for months. So, clearly, it's not working.

  And if it's — if this is Operation Prosperity Guardian, we're not guarding it.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Ali Vaez, let me ask you the same question.

  What's your assessment so far of the U.S. strikes in both Yemen and Iraq?

• Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director, International Crisis Group:

  Well, I agree that they're not working, but because we're addressing the symptoms here and not the proximate cause, which is the war in Gaza.

  Look, the reality is that the Houthis have been engaged in a war with the Saudi-led coalition for many years, and they have been targeted with the same U.S. weapons that we are now using against them for multiple years, and they have never been deterred.

  They're simply undeterrable. They're capable. They're determined. They're zealots, and they have very little to lose. And, in fact, they have been gaining in popularity at home as a result of this and in stature internationally. And we have had the same experience in Iraq also for many years.

  Using the military tool, Nick, is not the solution here. It is an option, for sure, but it's not a solution.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Michael Doran, are the Houthis undeterrable, as Ali Vaez just said, and is the military solution not the solution?

• Michael Doran:

  No, they're human beings, so they're deterrable. They're also being aided by the Iranians, and the Iranians are deterrable.

  A little-reported fact is that the Houthis, for the first time ever in the world, used an anti-ship ballistic missile. So they debuted it in combat. The Houthis, who don't have a serious defense industrial base, they're able to do this because the Iranians are there providing them with this weaponry.

  The IRGC general in Sanaa who's responsible for this is Abdul Reza Shahlai, who is a — who is on our terrorist list because he killed Americans in Iraq. He's the guy who orchestrated the attempt to kill Adel Al-Jubeir, the Saudi ambassador here, in 2011.

  So we have a guy who has a history of killing Americans, of organizing attacks on American soil. He's delivering these weapons to the Houthis. If we held him responsible, we could deter them.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Ali Vaez, what about that, holding Iranian officials in Yemen responsible and indeed the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps itself responsible?

• Ali Vaez:

  Look, Nick, again, there is a long track record to look at here.

  You remember when the U.S. killed General Soleimani in 2020 in Baghdad, we were told that deterrence is restored and now Iran would no longer be able to project power in the region. In the past few weeks, Israel has taken out multiple Iranian commanders in Syria, as well as a Hamas commander in Beirut. The U.S. has taken out a Shia militia commander in Baghdad, and it has been bombing the Houthis now at least seven times.

  So, again, there's a long track record to look at here. We had at certain point 150,000 troops on both sides of Iran's borders in Iraq and Afghanistan, and yet we were not able to deter them. Again, the military option is not a solution to every issue we have in that region, whereas, if you look at last year, for instance, Iran and the U.S. were engaged in quiet diplomacy that led to a de-escalatory understanding between them, which resulted in the longest period in which we had no attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria.

  Now, in the course of the past three-and-a-half months since the war in Gaza started, we have had more than 150 attacks on U.S. forces. And so the correlation is very simple to understand.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Michael Doran, take on that last point, that it is diplomacy, not military action, that creates de-escalation.

• Michael Doran:

  Here's a conversation that has never taken place in Tehran, where the IRGC says, let's orchestrate attacks against America and its allies all around the region, and the supreme leader says, you know what, there is no military option. It just doesn't work. We should de-escalate.

  They're the ones who escalated after October 7. They defined the conflict in Gaza as a contest between Iran and its resistance axis and the United States. The United States has tried to de-escalate by responding and saying, this is a conflict between Israel and Hamas only. They have not reciprocated.

  I think we need to draw the conclusion they're escalating. The only way to make them de-escalate is to take things from them that they hold dear.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Ali Vaez, respond to that fundamental point that Michael Doran just said, that the tension is not about, as you said — or the source of the tension is not about the war in Gaza, but this is really about Iran and its proxies versus the United States.

• Ali Vaez:

  Well, look, again, we had a period right before the war in Gaza that we have had no attacks on U.S. forces in the region.

  And let me once again say that the reality here is that we have a long track record of testing both of these propositions, diplomacy and military force. And I remind your viewers that we went into Afghanistan and we spent trillions of dollars and 20 years of war to replace the Taliban with the Taliban.

  So we have to understand that there are limits to the use of military force. I'm not saying that these are good people and we should not do anything, but I'm saying use of force is not useful unless and until we have a realistic and achievable diplomatic solution and an endgame here.

  And I'm not seeing any of that. Both Iran and the United States are acting as arsonists and firefighters at the same time. I believe neither of them has an interest in expansion of the war, but, unfortunately, there's no diplomacy here to try to actually bring this to an end.

• Nick Schifrin:

  We have only got about 45 seconds left.

  So, just in the time we have left, just briefly, Michael Doran, let's just talk about Iraq quickly. Could these strikes lead to the expulsion of U.S. troops from Iraq?

• Michael Doran:

  It's certainly possible, but everyone in the region is watching this and they're watching to see if the United States is going to protect itself and protect its allies.

  The United States is under direct attack by proxies of Iran that are under the command-and-control of Iran. If we do not defend ourselves and we don't defend our allies, then everyone in the region is going to draw the conclusion that we're not going to defend them. If we won't defend ourselves, we certainly won't defend them. And they will hedge toward Iran and toward China.

  One of the most perverse things we hear is that the United States is asking China, our global rival, to help us with Iran. How is that possibly going to work?

• Nick Schifrin:

  Ali Vaez, quickly, should the U.S. be concerned that it will lose its presence in Iraq?

• Ali Vaez:

  It is quite possible, although I have to say it seems that the Iraqi government itself does want the U.S. to remain in Iraq so that it — we don't see another reemergence of ISIS or another radical group.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Yes.

• Ali Vaez:

  So that is working in our favor.

  But as long as the tensions in the region are continuing, the risk of U.S. fatalities, I think, remains pretty high.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Yes.

  Ali Vaez, Michael Doran, thanks very much to you both.

• Michael Doran:

  Thank you.