Federal Reserve cuts interest rates amid mixed economic data and divisions in its ranks

Amna Nawaz:

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates today for the third time in a row, but left big questions about any additional rate cuts in the future. The Open Market Committee voted to cut its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to between 3.5 and 3.75 percent.

But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a reluctance to lower rates more amid mixed economic signals.

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman:

In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside, a challenging situation. There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals.

Amna Nawaz:

President Trump responded by calling Powell a stiff and making it clear he wanted a bigger cut.

President Donald Trump:

He did a rather — I would say a rather small number that could have been doubled, at least doubled. And that's the other thing. I think the rates for the United States are always the lowest in the world, because without us there is no world. Without this economy, there's no world.

Amna Nawaz:

With me now is Krishna Guha. He's vice chairman of Evercore ISI. It's an investment banking firm. He's former executive vice president at the New York Fed.

Krishna, welcome to the "News Hour." Thanks for joining us.

Krishna Guha, Vice Chairman, Evercore ISI:

Thank you.

Amna Nawaz:

Let's just start with your reaction to the Fed's decision to deliver its third straight interest rate cut. Is that what you expected?

Krishna Guha:

So it is what I expected.

But, of course, as you noted, there was a compromise here between the Fed doves, who want to cut rates, and the Fed hawks, who are skeptical about cutting rates. And the compromise was this. They cut rates, but they signaled that they're minded to take a pause here and see how the economy evolves.

They're certainly not ruling out cutting rates further. And most of them expect that will ultimately be the right thing to do. But right now, they're not in a rush, and there's a slightly higher bar for another near-term cut.

Amna Nawaz:

So you heard what Chairman Powell had to say there, some warning signs about what's to come. What do you take away from what he had to say, from the decision about the size of this cut and anything else from today's meeting?

Krishna Guha:

Well, I think what we saw is the Fed trying to come back together after a period where the divisions have been very much front and center between those more hawkish and more dovish members and find a middle path that most of them could sign up to.

The other thing that I think was interesting is the new economic projections that they delivered. They do this once a quarter at their meetings. They set out an economic outlook for next year and the years beyond. And what I thought was really quite striking about the new outlook is, it looks like the Fed is starting to embrace some optimism about technology, productivity and the sustainable growth rate.

You might think of this as a 1990s-lite take on what the world might look like next year and beyond.

Amna Nawaz:

You mentioned that compromise, the fact that this was the Fed coming back together and pulling together some disparate views.

Just they made clear there were two members who wanted to see no change at all, one member who wanted to see a deeper cut. Just for context, how unusual are those kinds of disagreements?

Krishna Guha:

So you're certainly right to say that it's not normal to have two dissenters on one side, wanting no cut, and one dissenter on the other side wanting a double-sized cut.

So this is not normal. But relative to where we were a few weeks ago, where it looked like the Fed Committee was splitting right down the middle, and you could have three, four, even five dissenters if Powell pushed through a rate cut, the committee looks just a little bit less divided in this moment than was feared.

But, certainly, there are deep disagreements on the committee about how restrictive their monetary policy still is and about the balance of risks that they're obligated by law to look at, the risks to employment on the one hand and inflation on the other.

And I think the truth is that these differences of economic analysis have been amplified by the political pressure on the Fed and the perception among Fed officials that their independence is under pressure. And this is something that doesn't make it easy to come to the middle. In fact, it tends to push people into their corners.

Amna Nawaz:

Speaking of that political pressure, we know Fed Chair Powell's term ends in May. President Trump is expected to name a successor in the coming weeks. Has anything that you have seen tell you about who that next pick might be and whether or not President Trump's pressure campaign for deeper cuts could work?

Krishna Guha:

Well, it certainly looks, based on the media reporting, that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is in pole position for the nomination for next Fed chair. It's not clear it's completely locked down yet.

There's talk of some further interviews taking place. And I think there are other candidates, including former Governor Warsh, current Governor Waller, who might still be in with a small chance.

I also think that there is still some residual risk that the next Fed chair ends up being current Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. President Trump seems to have never really given up on the idea that Bessent would be a great Fed chair. And Bessent has made it clear that he doesn't want the job. But I wouldn't completely exclude the possibility that he could end up in that seat. President Trump can be quite persuasive when he wants to be.

Amna Nawaz:

All right, that is Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI, joining us tonight.

Krishna, thank you. It's good to speak with you.

Krishna Guha:

So great to speak to you. Thank you.