Former ambassador discusses upcoming U.S.-Ukraine talks to end the war with Russia

John Yang:

Good evening. I`m John Yang. Russia and Ukraine traded heavy drone strikes overnight and into this morning, even as American and Ukrainian officials prepare to talk about how to end the war. Kyiv says Moscow`s bloody weekend of aerial attacks has led to at least 22 deaths. It comes amid a U.S. freeze on weapons shipments and intelligence sharing.

Russia released this video of what it says are drone strikes on a Ukrainian military column in Russia`s Kursk region. The Associated Press reports that tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers there are at risk of being encircled.

Tonight, Secretary of State Marco Rubio heads to Saudi Arabia to meet with Ukrainian officials on Tuesday to explore diplomatic paths to ending the war. John Herbst is the former US Ambassador to Ukraine and Uzbekistan. He`s now senior director of the Atlantic council`s Eurasia Center.

Mr. Ambassador, President Trump`s special envoy says the goals of this meeting in Saudi Arabia are to come up with a ceasefire and the framework of a peace agreement. How likely do you think is that to happen?

John Herbst, Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine: I believe that Moscow would like to continue operations, one, to pick up more Ukrainian territory before sitting down to talk, and two, to drive Ukrainian forces out of Kursk. If the administration`s objective is to achieve, as it says, a durable peace which leaves Ukraine sovereign, independent, economically viable, then it`s going about it the wrong way.

John Yang:

Going about it the wrong way? Why do you say that?

John Herbst:

Because Moscow believes, especially because of the gifts that President Trump has been bestowing on him, that it will be able to, in fact, kick the Ukrainians out of Russia and pick up more Ukrainian territory, because we are now weakening Ukraine`s defense.

We`ve stopped military shipments, we stopped providing intel, and it`s not a surprise that the Russians are trying hard to again conduct an offensive in Kursk, their oblast, where Ukrainian forces have been since August.

John Yang:

So ending arms shipments, ending intelligence sharing, you say those are gifts to —

John Herbst:

The gifts to Putin. And he hasn`t, quote, unquote, ended it. He`s paused it. But first, it seemed to be a pause because of the unfortunate meeting between himself and Zelenskyy on February 28th in the Oval Office. But then after Zelenskyy apologized and Trump seemed satisfied, they put on new conditions like, now, this will be paused until we see peace talks really starting to move or negotiations set so undetermined.

And again, Putin is taking advantage of this absence of American help to make gains on the battlefield. So if you want to empower Putin the aggressor, do exactly what you`re doing. Now, I`m not saying that`s Trump`s goal, but that`s the impact of his decisions.

John Yang:

On this point there was an interview with Mr. Trump that was broadcast this morning on Fox News, and he was asked whether he`s being tough on Russia. And here`s what he had to say.

Donald Trump, U.S. President:

I think I`ve been very tough to Russia, tougher than anybody`s ever been to Russia. Putin would be the first to say it. Nobody`s been tougher than Trump.

John Yang:

What do you say to that?

John Herbst:

Well, if he`s talking about his decision in 2017 to give javelins to Ukraine, I say that`s absolutely right. Obama was too timid to do that. If you`re talking about now. Well, no, he`s again taken serious measures that are weakening Ukraine`s ability to defend itself. And he`s done nothing to the aggressor, I believe, because he`s being criticized precisely along these lines. He said, well, maybe we`ll put some economic pressure on him. But he talks about economic pressure on Russia. He takes strong measures against Ukraine. It`s easy to see what`s going on.

John Yang:

In that Oval Office meeting you referred to. He told Zelenskyy that he didn`t have the cards to keep going. Using that analogy, what kind of hand is Vladimir Putin holding?

John Herbst:

The President just took several cards out of Zelenskyy`s hands. One, stopping American military shipments, Two, stopping Americans intel sharing. And three, we`re hearing reports that he`s trying to stop European supplies from getting to Ukraine. They`re trying to stop commercial satellite companies from providing imagery which could help Ukraine now that they don`t have American intelligence.

So these are all cards he`s taking out of the hand of the weaker party of the victim. So this may be a self-fulfilling statement.

John Yang:

I want to ask you also about the broader Europe, U.S.-European relationship. We`ve heard France say that, essentially say that we`re on our own now, we`re going to use our own nuclear weapons as deterrent. What`s this done to the, to that alliance?

John Herbst:

Well, it has certainly shaken the alliance and not just in Europe. People around the world are seeing this and I think it`s based upon an approach that doesn`t understand how our alliance system has served our interests greatly. Not perfectly. Trump`s right and he`s done well at getting our allies to spend more on defense.

But this alliance system has been the pillar of world peace since the end of World War II. It`s been not the only reason, but the principal reason why there has not been a major war between great powers. And there`s no question that the greatest danger to the United States is when major wars, if we`re in a major war with a great power, and the way you bungle into a major war with an adversary, a major adversary, is to appear weak.

And I have to say the administration right now, it appears, if not weak, then fatuous.

John Yang:

Former ambassador John Herbst, thank you very much.

John Herbst:

My pleasure.