Former Middle East negotiator analyzes sticking points of Trump’s Gaza peace plan

John Yang:

Good evening. I'm John Yang. President Trump is sending envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Cairo this weekend to try to nail down a deal between Hamas and Israel to free the remaining Israeli hostages. The president hopes that would be the first step toward ending their war, which is to enter its third year.

On Tuesday in Gaza, the skies were relatively calm. Palestinian hospital officials say Israeli bombing has significantly subsided, though not stopped entirely. They said at least five Palestinians had been killed. Israeli officials say the IDF has shifted to a defensive posture in Gaza.

On social media, the president said the next steps were up to the Palestinian militant group. Hamas must move quickly or else all bets are off. I will not tolerate delay or any outcome where Gaza poses a threat. Again, let's get this done fast.

In Khan Younis, displaced Palestinians said Mr. Trump's pressure should be directed elsewhere.

Shereen Kharoub, Displaced Palestinian (through interpreter):

My message to Mr. Trump is to pressure Israel for a ceasefire. He is feeling for us and aware of our situation. This is enough. Displacement, no food, no stability and no life. He sees us. Certainly he sees us and feels for us.

John Yang:

While both Hamas and Israel have sounded positive about Mr. Trump's plan, they've also indicated there is still much to be resolved. Aaron David Miller was a U.S. Middle East negotiator in Republican and Democratic administrations. He's now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

You're a former negotiator. You hear the things that Israel is saying that Hamas is saying. Do you get the feeling that we're on our way to a deal?

Aaron David Miller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: You know, usually my sense is. Is pretty negative given the gaps between Israel and Hamas over the last couple of years. But, yeah, I think we are at least on the way to the release of hostages in exchange probably, probably for an end to Israel's comprehensive military campaign in Gaza.

Beyond that, it is really difficult to say because both the yes, but from Israel and the yes, but for sure from Hamas to the president's 20 points basically reflect still the impossibility right now of reconciling what the Israelis want for an end state and what Hamas does.

But I think, John, closer than ever, although in Arab, Israeli, Palestinian negotiations, ever is a kind of a problematic idea.

John Yang:

Explain what the sticking points are on each side. What in the deal is Hamas not crazy about? What in the deal Israel not terribly excited about?

Aaron David Miller:

I think both are not excited about any of it, except the president is the most exciting because what he is going to be able to accomplish, if it holds is the return of all the hostages, living and dead, and likely, as I mentioned, an end to Israel's comprehensive military campaign in Gaza.

Hamas wants to survive, and they will be looking for two commitments that I don't think this Israeli government will be willing to give. Withdraw all Israeli forces from Gaza and a formal end to the war where the Israelis will not continue to exercise the right to preempt or prevent if Hamas resurges.

As far as Mr. Netanyahu is concerned, he wanted, quote, unquote, total victory, as he has maintained these many months, which would have meant the end of Hamas as an organized military organization. I think he probably the Israeli Defense Forces have achieved that. What they have not achieved, and I think this is going to be extremely difficult, is the end of Hamas's political influence in Gaza and its existence as an insurgency.

So again, Netanyahu's end state and Hamas's are still, in my judgment, mutually irreconcilable. This is happening. Yes, Hamas is under pressure. It's happening. Yes, the Arabs are more united, but it is happening for one primary reason. You have an American president. I was part of administrations from Jimmy Carter to Bush 43. You have an administration, a president, that has exercised unprecedented pressure on an Israeli prime minister. Not since Eisenhower, who threatened David Ben Gurion with political and economic sanctions.

Has an American president been this tough with an Israeli prime minister and actually threatened a quote or else. And this Israeli prime minister, since he needs Donald Trump to wage a successful election campaign to remain prime minister, probably in the spring or maybe the fall of 2026, couldn't say no.

John Yang:

Is that surprising given the relationship we saw between Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu during Mr. Trump's first term? And also we keep hearing Netanyahu say Israel has had no better friend in the White House than Donald Trump.

Aaron David Miller:

I mean, Trump fashions himself as the most pro-Israeli president in human history. And the reality is, during Trump 1.0, I think Donald Trump created what I would describe as a sugar high for the Israelis. He applied no pressure, ample amounts of honey, but no vinegar this time around, given the fact that he wanted to claim success in not ending the war.

Let's be clear, the war between Israel and Hamas is going to go on But Trump, like in Ukraine, wanted to end the fighting but not the war. Here, he's going to get the hostages out, most likely. And he will ameliorate or diminish the comprehensive military campaign that the Israelis have waged over the last year, where they now occupy 75 to 80 percent of Gaza, where the Israelis are going to withdraw to? Will Hamas's weapons be decommissioned, as it says in the president's proposal? Is there going to be an Arab stabilization force will aid humanitarian assistance and reconstruction to provide 2 million Palestinians finally with a secure source of potable water, sanitation, access to proper medical care and enough food?

All of those issues, all of them remain to be negotiated.

John Yang:

Aaron David Miller, thank you very much.

Aaron David Miller:

John, thanks for having me.