Former U.S. diplomat breaks down Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping

Amna Nawaz:

For a perspective on the Houthi efforts to block shipping in the Red Sea, we turn now to Timothy Lenderking. During his decades-long career as a U.S. diplomat, he served as special envoy to Yemen and as acting assistant secretary for Near East affairs. He's now a principal at the law firm Squire Patton Boggs.

Welcome back. Thanks for being here.

Timothy Lenderking, Former U.S. Special Envoy to Yemen: Thank you.

Amna Nawaz:

So why are the Houthis making these threats, taking these actions, and why right now?

Timothy Lenderking:

I think this is something that's been in the making. I mean, we have seen that this organization, which the Trump administration put back on the terrorism list, has been preparing for a moment like this for a long time and has a very strong and important relationship with Iran, maybe not a total complete proxy of Iran.

But it has developed these capabilities and has shown the willingness to use them, if we look back at the Gaza conflict and the regularity, and the accuracy with which the Houthis struck ships in the Red Sea, right, another essential global maritime corridor adjacent to the Straits of Hormuz, 12 percent of global energy supplies, very important artery for so many economies.

But the Houthis striking at ships of all different nationalities, killing a number of Mariners, sinking ships, this demonstrated their ability and their willingness to use these tools. And during this interim period, I think the president's wise to say that the Houthis were behaving themselves and staying out of this conflict.

But now I think it's just too tempting for them to get involved.

Amna Nawaz:

So you heard Secretary Rubio there say that the Houthis were snookered by the Iranians, basically saying that the Iranians seemed to pressure them into doing this. Do you agree with that take?

Timothy Lenderking:

I mean, I'm sure the Iranians have been pressuring the Houthis.

I think other parties in the region have also been pressuring the Houthis not to come to this point. But I think, at a certain point, the Houthis are very pragmatic. They're also very ideological, and I think they're opportunists.

If there's an opportunity to get involved in a conflict to show that they're relevant and to do a solid by their buddies the Iranians, they they're not likely to pass up such an opportunity.

Amna Nawaz:

And the opportunity potentially cause harm to Saudi shipments, what about that?

Timothy Lenderking:

Well, I mean, that's an interesting and a very unfortunate development, because I think there's been sort of a detente between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.

Nick had mentioned the truce that we helped negotiate when I was envoy in April of 2022 has largely held and kept fighting restrained inside Yemen for all this period, despite the fact that the Houthis were firing outside of Yemen.

But the combatants inside Yemen have been mostly quiet, right? I mean, not perfect, but certainly a truce. And nobody wants to see that civil war reignite. But this is the kind of incendiary, provocative behavior by the Houthis that could really muddy the waters and tilt the scales back toward war inside Yemen as well, because the Yemeni people don't want to see this.

The Yemeni people don't want a return to civil war. But the Houthis, I think, have demonstrated disdain for the Yemeni people over a number of years.

Amna Nawaz:

I mean, you did play a key role in brokering that 2022 peace deal.

And just to remind folks about that conflict, you're talking about the Houthis in there and the Saudi-backed government forces at war.

Timothy Lenderking:

That's correct.

Amna Nawaz:

When we talk about this widening war, how concerned are you now that you have Yemen -- and Yemen and -- rather, the Houthis and Saudi trading targets at each other directly? How concerned are you that this is a widening war?

Timothy Lenderking:

I am concerned.

And I'm sure that the Saudis, who know this country very well and have very competent people who work on this file for Saudi Arabia, and who have maintained dialogue, back channels with the Houthis and at times invited Houthis representatives to travel to Saudi Arabia, I mean, that's exactly the kind of diplomacy that needs to happen, I think, while there is a threat of credible force from the United States, from the outside to help make sure that the Houthis do the right thing.

Amna Nawaz:

I need to ask you, while we have you, because you have also served in Saudi Arabia.

There was news this week about the U.S. and Saudi signing this nuclear deal, gives U.S. companies priority to supply nuclear reactors and fuel to help build a Saudi energy program. Today, we heard President Trump introduce a new condition to that deal, essentially saying that deal won't go through unless Saudi Arabia signs the Abraham Accords, essentially normalizing relations with Israel, which is something Saudi officials have said they would not do unless there's a path to a Palestinian state.

How do you, with your experience and perspective, look at that?

Timothy Lenderking:

I have been in so many meetings with the Saudis over the years. I served there for three years, 2013 to '16, and I go back every year multiple times.

I have been in conversations with them about the 123 nuclear agreement going back to my time there. I have been in conversations with them about normalizing with Israel. I do believe that they could get there, but I also believe they're very firm when they say there has to be a credible pathway to a Palestinian state.

And, so far, that threshold has not been achieved to the satisfaction of the Saudis. I expect that they will stick by that parameter.

Amna Nawaz:

Meaning that a deal would not go through at this point if President Trump sticks to that condition?

Timothy Lenderking:

No, I mean, that the Saudis -- the Saudis won't go ahead with any sort of permutation that doesn't include -- that is, normalization with Israel, that does not include a credible pathway to a Palestinian state.

Amna Nawaz:

More questions, I think, we have for all the parties involved at this point.

Tim Lenderking, always good to see you. Thank you for your time.

Timothy Lenderking:

Thank you.