Giving Iran control of Strait of Hormuz would be a mistake, Bolton argues

Amna Nawaz:

For a view on the latest developments in the war with Iran, we turn now to John Bolton, former national security adviser in President Trump's first term. During his tenure, the U.S. announced it was withdrawing from the JCPOA. That's the nuclear agreement with Iran negotiated during the Obama administration.

Ambassador Bolton, welcome back to the "News Hour." Thanks for joining us.

John Bolton, Former U.S. National Security Adviser:

Thanks for having me.

Amna Nawaz:

So you have been saying in recent interviews repeatedly that you do not believe the U.S. should be negotiating with Iran or working towards a deal, that the U.S. needs to use military force to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Explain to us what that means, what it would look like.

John Bolton:

Well, the Iranians have made palpable what was a potential threat to close the Strait of Hormuz for many years.

And people discounted it. We benefited from it from lower oil prices. Now they have closed it and threatened the use of force. I think that their efforts to negotiate a reopening of the strait are simply intended to demonstrate that they do control it and that you have to bargain with them before they will consent to let Arab oil and other cargoes come out of the Gulf.

I think that's a mistake, because, if they negotiate an end to the blockade of their own oil and opening the strait to everybody else, I think they will believe they can turn the Strait of Hormuz on and off like a light switch. And if we're not prepared to use force today, who in the future is going to be prepared to use it?

I don't understand why the Gulf Arabs can even contemplate this, but I think we have a larger obligation, because if this precedent is established in the Strait of Hormuz, not only will it have continuing negative economic consequences for the world because of the oil and gas coming from the Gulf, but it will call into question every other international waterway similar to the geography of the Strait of Hormuz, like the Dardanelles and Bosphorus in Turkey, like the Strait of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia.

These are -- have been deemed for centuries to be international waterways to which ships have it a right of free passage. And if that is taken away, this is a much bigger change than just the Strait of Hormuz.

Amna Nawaz:

Ambassador, if I may, wouldn't U.S. military action in that way, wouldn't that immediately lead to Iran striking more of America's Gulf allies in the region? These are allies who do not want the war to resume, have reportedly been pushing the Trump administration to try to reach a deal.

John Bolton:

Well, we don't know what Iran will do. We -- they're as good as bluffing as the Trump administration is.

And he had a plan to open the strait and backed away from it, I think because the Gulf Arabs were not at all sure he would continue to defend them. Look, this is a regime in Tehran that's desperately playing for time. And if we let it up off its back, if we effectively give it control of the strait, and they're able to gain the oil revenues from resuming export of their oil, they will rebuild the Quds Force.

They will rebuild the Basij militia. They will rebuild their nuclear program. They will rebuild their missile program. They will rebuild their drone program. They will repress their own people, and they will threaten the Gulf in the Middle East even more than before.

Amna Nawaz:

I want to ask you about the regime in just a moment, but specific to the Strait of Hormuz, we did speak to an expert in maritime traffic who talks to a lot of the shipping companies.

And this person maintained that the shipping companies don't trust that the U.S. could keep the strait open, that Iran maintains a lot of low-tech capabilities, they could continue to ships. Doesn't take a lot to damage those ships, this person told us. So, if the companies don't trust that the strait is safe, what difference does it make?

John Bolton:

Well, in the Project Freedom, 36 hours, while it lasted, Maersk, which is one of the biggest shipping companies in the world, maybe the biggest, had one of their cargo vessels come out.

Two American flagships went in. American destroyers were attacked and destroyed the attacking Iranian drones and fast boats. I'm not saying it would be easy, but I am saying that if you allow Iran to keep control of this, in effect, whether they're charging -- quote, unquote -- "environmental tolls" or not, we are going to come to regret it in a major way.

And so should every other country around the world that depends on freedom of the seas, because that is the fundamental question that Iran is raising here. What had been an international waterway where there was a right of innocent passage, not only for commercial vessels, but even for warships in time of peace, that right of innocent passage is on the way to being history.

Amna Nawaz:

I have heard in another interviews you have also been calling for regime change, a full-on regime change in Iran.

And I want to point you towards some reporting from The New York Times recently where they talked about the fact that Iran's military remains much stronger than we have heard from the president, from President Trump, and from this administration, according to one assessment, that they have kept operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz.

Why do you think that Iran has proven to be so much more resilient than this administration seemed to expect?

John Bolton:

Well, I don't know what the administration expected, and I don't know exactly whether we can judge the accuracy of these reports compared against what the Pentagon has said.

But I would say this. The Iranian regime has spent 47 years entrenching itself in power. Think of it as an even bigger version of Hamas that over the years spent billions of dollars, not for the benefit of the Palestinian residents of Gaza, but to build a fortress of tunnels under the Gaza Strip.

That's what the regime in Iran has done. Now, if we were going to go after regime change, I certainly would have done many different things than what the Trump administration has done. And you have to rely on the estimates of your military and intelligence for what you think is necessary, and plan for the contingency that maybe you need to do more.

Just because the Iranian regime has proven to be more fanatic and more desperate to keep itself in power than perhaps the Trump White House realized simply proves the importance of getting rid of this regime before it is able once again to pursue nuclear weapons and international terrorism around the world, with the threat of death and destruction that those programs entail.

Amna Nawaz:

That is former National Security Adviser Ambassador John Bolton joining us tonight.

Good to speak with you. Thank you for your time.

John Bolton:

Thank you.