Grave Prognosis for Ariel Sharon

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• JEFFREY BROWN:

  Dan, what's the latest on Prime Minister Sharon's condition and are the doctors giving any prognosis at this point?

• DAN EPHRON:

  No firm prognosis. They say that his situation is grave. He's in a coma. He's in an induced coma. And he has been sedated. The doctor is saying he will stay that way at least for 24 hours, maybe 48 hours. And only then will they be able to assess his condition.

• JEFFREY BROWN:

  Is this being treated in the Israeli press among politicians as in fact the end of an era?

• DAN EPHRON:

  Yes, it is. I don't think — I think it might be premature to talk about the end of Sharon or Sharon's medical condition in distinct terms, in specific terms, but what the press is saying, what Israelis are talking about is this idea that no matter how Sharon emerges from the hospital back here he will not be able to go back to politics, and in that sense it is an end of an era that began in 2001 when Sharon was elected prime minister.

• JEFFREY BROWN:

  I'm wondering. because Mr. Sharon had suffered a mild stroke not that long ago, how, to what extent was the public taken by surprise by this?

• DAN EPHRON:

  Well, when he suffered that mild stroke, doctors talked about the possibility, a slim possibility that there would be another episode, a repeat episode. But Sharon and Sharon's people went to a good deal of effort to show that his health generally was quite good.

  He did what Israeli politicians don't usually do. He had his medical files released to the public, released to the press in those days after that initial stroke, that mild one. And the medical files showed that although he is almost 78 and he's extremely overweight, that his health was generally good.

  So when reports emerged last night that he was rushed to hospital, that he had suffered this massive stroke, I think it was a surprise for most Israelis

• JEFFREY BROWN:

  Now Mr. Sharon of course had recently announced that he would be leaving his Likud Party to form a new Kadima Party in a coming election. What are politicians there saying today in reaction to his medical condition?

• DAN EPHRON:

  Well, there is — first of all, I think people are waiting to see how things turn out for Sharon. But I think the initial conclusion is that the party that he formed, Kadima, will suffer, will suffer a big blow as a result of this.

  Sharon is easily the most popular politician in Israel, not only now, but I would say in recent political history. He formed this centrist party just a little while ago and polls have showed that he would win the election very easily in March, an election just a couple months away, on the strength of his stature, and his popularity.

  After him and his party are people who are generally don't merely have the stature that Sharon has. And I think polls are showing that Kadima, his new party will not do as well as projected if he does not return to politics.

• JEFFREY BROWN:

  Is the expectation for now that the election, the campaign and then the vote scheduled for late March will go on as scheduled?

• DAN EPHRON:

  Yes, it will. They have announced formally that — the government has announced formally that the elections will be held on time.

  I think even if there was an initiative to delay the elections with the prime minister in hospital and the government really in a state of disarray since this new party was formed and other parties left the government, the Israeli leadership can't really go on more than a couple of months in this interim period without having new parliamentary elections and choosing a new prime minister.

• JEFFREY BROWN:

  Now what about reaction from Palestinians? It looks as though it differs whether at an official level or on the street.

• DAN EPHRON:

  I think that's true. I think on an official level the things we hear are sympathy for Sharon, concern about his health concern about the instability in Israel and how that impacts the situation in the West Bank and Gaza.

  But on the street among Palestinians and the West Bank, Sharon is perceived in all kinds of ways. To some Palestinians he's the man who pulled Israeli settlers out of the Gaza Strip just a few months ago. But to many Palestinians, Ariel Sharon is the man who had indirect responsibility 20 years ago for a massacre in Lebanon, a massacre of Palestinians in Sabra and Shatila, and so we have seen isolated incidents of Palestinians celebrating at the fact that the prime minister is in hospital and that his condition is grave.

• JEFFREY BROWN:

  And for now Ehud Olmert is acting prime minister, a man who is less known here in the U.S. than Ariel Sharon, certainly. What you can tell us about him?

• DAN EPHRON:

  Ehud Olmert has been in politics for about 30 years, so he is a veteran lawmaker to Israelis. He has been in Likud through his career. He left Likud with Sharon. And he traveled a similar political journey. He started on the right as a supporter of settlers as Sharon did.

  In recent years he has become more of a pragmatist and in fact during the Sharon years he was really the most centrist, let's say, figure in the Likud Party. He was the guy who would give interviews, talking about things like a withdrawal from Gaza unilaterally before Sharon would articulate that policy.

• JEFFREY BROWN:

  All right, Dan Ephron of Newsweek, thanks for joining us.