Why New Hampshire might be the last chance for voters to avoid a Trump-Biden rematch

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• Amna Nawaz:

  There are mere hours to go before New Hampshire voters head to the polls tomorrow morning for the presidential primaries. On the Republican side, former President Trump is seeking a sequel to his runaway victory in the Iowa caucuses.

• Geoff Bennett:

  And President Biden is the prohibitive front-runner for the Democratic Party's nomination and is expected to win the most votes in New Hampshire, even though his name isn't on the ballot. That's to adhere to a rule by the Democratic National Committee.

  Political correspondent Lisa Desjardins is in New Hampshire and joins us now.

  So, Lisa, this is an unusual New Hampshire primary.

  The Republican race is already down to two candidates. And President Biden's name, as we mentioned, isn't even on the ballot. How are the campaigns seeing it?

• Lisa Desjardins:

  This is the first primary of the 2024 presidential election. But the Biden and Trump campaigns hope that it will be essentially the end to the real contest.

  With Chris Christie dropping out over a week ago and with Ron DeSantis over this weekend dropping out, suspending his campaign, for the Trump campaign, they want to make sure that Nikki Haley does not get any momentum. They want that to end here. For Biden, he wants to stop any potential rebellion even before it has formed.

  He has challenges of his own making. But, essentially, what's happening here in New Hampshire is the idea that, for both parties, any chance to avoid a Trump rematch has to happen here.

  Nikki Haley (R), Presidential Candidate: Thank you so much.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  She is the last Republican standing against Donald Trump .

• Nikki Haley:

  That's the sound of a two-person race.

  (Cheering and applause)

• Lisa Desjardins:

  With Ron DeSantis out, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley faces the test she wanted, a showdown in New Hampshire.

• Nikki Haley:

  When you vote on Tuesday, you're going to be making a decision, do you want more of the same?

• Audience:

  No!

• Lisa Desjardins:

  To growing crowds, Haley pitches Trump as chaotic and herself as constructive about education and the debt, and conservative, including blocking transgender girls from sports.

  This is her most competitive state, but she stumbled here last month in not naming slavery as the cause of the Civil War. Haley trails Trump and needs voters like Steve Kesselring, a Trump supporter until his 10-year-old daughter, Hannah, asked to listen to other candidates.

  They did again and again, New Hampshire-style. The two became campaign trail celebrities.

• Hannah Kesselring, Nikki Haley Supporter:

  Eight Nikki Haley events, three Chris Christie events I have to. He's been to four.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  And Steve became a Haley voter.

• Steve Kesselring, Nikki Haley Supporter:

  she talked about how much debt we actually acquired, like the largest debt that — of any sitting president. And I started thinking about like, what do I want to leave for my daughter? What do I want to do for her future?

• Lisa Desjardins:

  What Hannah wants is not Trump.

• Hannah Kesselring:

  He's going to call Chris Christie a fat pig. He's going to call Nikki a birdbrain. I don't want my president to be like that.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  But from throngs of Trump voters here:

• Karen Macdonald, Donald Trump Supporter:

  I will overlook all of that because he loves America and he takes care of Americans.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  There is unmatched fervor and crowd size, where he taunts Haley.

  Donald Trump , Former President of the United States (R) and Current U.S. Presidential Candidate: Almost every politician from South Carolina is endorsing me.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  And where Trump, who faces 91 felony counts, argues he should be immune from most prosecution.

• Donald Trump :

  This isn't just me. This is all presidents. They have to be given immunity. Otherwise, they're going to be unable to act.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Many believe Trump's lies about the 2020 election, but others we spoke with shrug that off and say they see a strong man on big issues.

• Febie Salts, Donald Trump Supporter:

  Number one is immigration. I came in this country in the front door, not the back door.

• Brandon Aldrich, Donald Trump Supporter:

  I love the fact that he is taking care of our borders, and he's the only one doing it.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  How do you feel other people look at Trump supporters?

• Stephanie Dietz, Donald Trump Supporter:

  That we're fat, that we're delusional, that we are uneducated. Sorry, I have got many degrees, been to 70 countries and speak another language.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  It is a potent political force against which Haley has some chance.

• Thalia Floras, Nikki Haley Supporter:

  This is the first time in — Joe Biden.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  … thanks to voters like Thalia Floras.

  You are a longtime Democrat.

• Thalia Floras:

  I am a lifelong Democrat, and I voted for Joe Biden several times

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Her office is a personal museum of primaries past.

• Thalia Floras:

  Bernie came to New Hampshire.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Walls of photos of Democrats she met. But she's switching this year to vote for Haley, initially to block Trump.

• Thalia Floras:

  And to be honest with you, that's part of my thought process. Having spent time at all her town halls and events, I grew to admire her.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Meantime, she has lost some faith with the Democratic Party, which stripped New Hampshire of its delegates after the state kept its early primary date, despite Biden and the party ordering that it be moved back.

• Thalia Floras:

  To say I'm disappointed is an understatement. I'm not going to vote in it because they're not counting my vote.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  The primary date debacle ended in the Biden campaign deciding to stay off the ballot and out of the state.

• Woman:

  We need to make sure that we put Joe Biden on the top of the ticket.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  So now Biden's fate here is partially in the hands of grassroots efforts, one muscular super PAC and a ragtag campaign of volunteers.

• Colin Van Ostern, Joe Biden Supporter:

  Super unusual. No one involved has done anything like this before.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Colin Van Ostern is a former gubernatorial nominee who helped start the effort, first with six people on a Zoom call. And now?

• Colin Van Ostern:

  Hundreds of people are organizing at this exact moment all across the state in their own communities, and that's a win on its own.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  As signs lay out, people must write in Biden's name for him to get their vote.

• STEPHANIE ALICEA, Joe Biden Supporter:

  This is where we're at right now. So let's do what we can to get him in the — in office.

  Millie Lafontaine, Joe Biden supporter: I'm very worried that he's going to have a less-than-delightful showing. And I think that he's — the Democratic Party has made it harder for him.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Harder for him, but it opens up a small chance, maybe the only chance, for Biden's opponents, like author Marianne Williamson, who's been reaching out to voters here for years.

  But none may benefit more than Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips, who is a long shot, but yet also perhaps the best shot any Democrat has of derailing Biden. The once-unknown lawmaker is drawing more people, including a well-past-capacity weekend crowd.

• Man:

  Are you guys trying to get in?

• Lisa Desjardins:

  After a bumpy start, Phillips, a millionaire businessman, now touts his rejection of PAC money and straddles party lines, stressing prudence and reform, including of housing.

  Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN), Presidential Candidate: I'm going to have the best and brightest Americans, no matter their politics, in the White House.

  (Cheering and applause)

• Lisa Desjardins:

  He is blunt about Biden.

• Rep. Dean Phillips:

  I mean, I don't know how anybody can look at these numbers and determine that he is anything but weak.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  It's working with some of the young.

• Aliyana Koch-Manzur, Dean Phillips Supporter:

  I mean, Obama was a long shot at first too. I think every campaign has to start with every individual voter.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  And with some like this man, who was considering voting for Haley.

• Mark McLaughlin, New Hampshire Voter:

  If the vote was right now, I would vote for Dean Phillips.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  You don't think that's a wasted vote?

• Mark McLaughlin:

  I don't because I — one, I personally don't believe in this idea of a wasted vote. I still stick to that where you should probably end up voting for who you really want to support.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  All of this is one question in January about November.

• Narrator:

  The two most disliked politicians in America, Trump and Biden.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  If the U.S. is to veer away from a Trump-Biden rematch, someone else must have a very big night here, like Phillips or Haley.

• Brett Shewey, Nikki Haley Supporter:

  I'm afraid that, Tuesday, if she does not win here, it is all over at this point.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  One more day that could set the direction for the campaign year.

  One factor here, of course, are independent or undeclared voters in New Hampshire. Over 40 percent of registered voters are undeclared. That means they can vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary tomorrow.

  And, by the way, Geoff, as you know, they don't like to be told who's going to win.

• Geoff Bennett:

  So, Lisa, let's start with the Republican side. What does the Haley campaign, what do they say that she needs to do tomorrow night?

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Just a few weeks ago, last year, Nikki Haley and her campaign thought they could even pull out a win here in New Hampshire. This is a very favorable state for her.

  But now, when I talk to them, they're saying they want to have a strong second place. Essentially, the margin matters a lot. She has to prove that she can somehow gain momentum out of this state especially and try and build something in her own home state, South Carolina, which is next.

• Geoff Bennett:

  And for the Democrats, the fact that President Biden isn't actively contesting New Hampshire, that gives a bit of a window to the longshot candidacies of Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips. What are you hearing from their campaign?

• Lisa Desjardins:

  All right, they're keeping plot twists to our political times. This is an extraordinary situation, where President Biden, as I mentioned, has these challenges of his own making by blocking the New Hampshire primary from going first, coming off the ballot.

  Now voters have to — who want to actually vote for him have to look at this. Let's show you the New Hampshire ballot. There you go. Look at this long list of names of people who have qualified for president on his ballot. At the bottom, voters would have to write in Joe Biden.

  Now, the secretary of state here in New Hampshire does have some parameters where it doesn't have to be exactly Joe Biden. Essentially, those reading the ballot have to believe that the voter intended to write Joe Biden. Could be President Biden, those kinds of things.

  But there are also challenges not of President Biden and Democrats' making. For example, there was a robo-call that NBC News got ahold of today in which there was the voice of Joe Biden manipulated to try and tell voters that they shouldn't show up for the poll at all. It's very clear that Republicans would love a situation where Joe Biden underperforms here, maybe gets less than 50 percent.

  I will also say, though, Dean Phillips at the same time seems to be getting bigger and bigger crowds. It was really one of the few surprises I had here, seeing overflow crowds for him. And another strange thing in these strange times, maybe not so strange, I have met several voters who are choosing between Nikki Haley and Dean Phillips.

  What do they all have in common? The big theme here, they don't want it to be a Trump-Biden rematch.

• Geoff Bennett:

  All right, Lisa Desjardins in New Hampshire for us tonight.

  Lisa, thank you.

  And be sure to join us tomorrow night for live coverage of the New Hampshire primary. That's at 11:00 p.m. Eastern right here on PBS.