How retirements and redistricting could impact the 2026 midterms

Nick Schifrin:

The end of 2025 brings us to the beginning of a midterm election year. And that means questions about whether power will shift in Washington.

Dozens of members of Congress are heading toward the exit, and a handful of states are shaking up their political maps to try and lock in partisan gains.

Lisa Desjardins is here to walk through the numbers at the super screen.

Lisa, thank you very much.

So let's start with what is certain. Where is redistricting in place and which party benefits?

Lisa Desjardins:

We have talked a lot about the two biggest states involved here, Texas, where Republicans began this redistricting war, and California, where Democrats responded.

In each of those states, the parties respectively expect to pick up between three and five seats. But let's talk about the three states that have also re-mapped. Those are for Republicans Ohio and North Carolina, where they expect to pick up a couple of seats. But Democrats also have an opportunity as well, Utah, where a court-ordered map means they could pick up a seat around Salt Lake City.

So take these five states where new maps will be in place, and what do you get? Here's a cheat sheet. This is a way to think about this math. The Republicans, these are where they expect to pick up. But if you look at it, their Texas gains really are washed out by the California for Republicans. Same thing, North Carolina, that basically is canceled out by the potential in Utah.

That leaves us with Ohio, where The Cook Political Report forecasts that Republicans stand to either have a wash or pick up a couple of seats. And that's the story right now of where these maps stand. Essentially, Republicans either will have a wash or pick up a couple with the maps certainly in place.

Nick Schifrin:

OK, so the states where it's locked in may give Republicans an edge. But what about all the states where the efforts are still in progress?

Lisa Desjardins:

This is the right question, because I think this is where people get confused and start to flatline. This is what we especially want to clear up.

Let's look at the Republican opportunities still in play. There are five states we're watching. They're all right here. Some, like Florida, involve state legislatures. Others involve court orders that we are waiting for. One state that is not in this circle, Indiana. You will remember the Trump administration wanted a Republican map there, but they're not getting it because state Senate Republicans rejected it.

Now, let's look at what's still in play for Democrats we're watching. Right here, there's three states, Virginia, where a new Democratic governor will be inaugurated next month. Maryland, we're watching and Wisconsin. Now, I'm not going to do all the math for all these states because this is complicated and it's uncertain which of these states will actually redistrict.

But this map tells the story anyway. You see more red and pink here. There are more opportunities for Republicans than Democrats. However, it does come with risk. In places like Texas, Republicans are putting new seats on the board by watering down the Republican content of some of their safe seats. Democrats are hoping that maybe that makes them more vulnerable.

Nick Schifrin:

All right, so upheaval in the maps, but also upheaval among members of Congress. We have a long list of retirements already. What does that look like and what does it mean?

Lisa Desjardins:

Nick, we're a near record pace right now for this midterm. And there's some big names.

Moderates like Don Bacon, Jared Golden, they're fed up with Congress and leaving, but also some on the ideological ends of the spectrum, big-name conservatives, including Marjorie Taylor Greene, who is leaving at the beginning of January, Nancy Pelosi, former speaker of the House.

Also want to point out Lloyd Doggett, Texas Democrat, leaving because he's been redistricted out of his own seat. This is the who, but I think the number actually tells a more important story. Right now, by my count, we know 46 different members of this House are leaving of their own accord, not returning. Most of them, as you see here, that red bar, are Republicans.

How does that compare? We looked back at the end of December for the last two midterm cycles. Here's what you see. This figure is much higher than we saw four years ago when Joe Biden was in office. But look at this. It's very close to where we were in 2017 under President Trump. And, again, it was mostly Republicans leaving.

Why might that matter? I'm glad you asked. Actually, I asked that. But in 2018, after we saw these large number of retirements, what happened? Republicans lost 40 seats. It was a wave election. There are not that many seats in play now because of redistricting. But Republicans and -- Democrats, rather, really like their chances, because, in order to flip the House to regain control, Democrats only need to net three seats in the 2026 election.

So the big takeaways here, Nick, one, House Republicans do stand to gain from their efforts to redraw maps around the country, but their own members are telling a different story. Their message is they're leaving for the exits. Does not look like they expect with certainty to be in the majority.

Nick Schifrin:

Lisa Desjardins, breaking it down, as always, for us brilliantly at the super screen, thanks so much.

Lisa Desjardins:

You're welcome.