How the U.S. and allies plan to protect ships from Houthi attacks in Red Sea

Geoff Bennett:

We return now to the conflict in the Middle East, and rising tensions in the Red Sea, where about 12 percent of the world's global trade passes through and where Houthi militias in Yemen have been attacking ships.

The Houthis say their attacks are in support of the Palestinians. Yesterday, U.S. Defense Secretary Austin announced a new multinational effort to protect ships in the region. But what how will it work?

For that, we turn to the former commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East retired General Frank McKenzie. He's now the executive director of the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida.

Thanks for being with us, sir.

And help our audience understand first, who are the Houthis and why exactly are they attacking commercial ships?

Gen. Frank McKenzie (Ret.), Former Commander, U.S. Central Command: The Houthis are a proxy of Iran, and they seized government control in a coup in Yemen several years ago.

They have been largely responsible for the mass starvation in the country. And, with Iran, they pursue a policy for the destruction of Israel. They're not completely under the direct control of Iran, but Iran provides their equipment, provides their resourcing and all their supplies.

But they're not directly at the beck and call of Iran in this matter. The Houthis have wanted to attack Israel. It's very hard for them to range Israel proper. So, they have settled on instead trying to cut off communication of maritime shipping in the Bab-el-Mandeb area, down at the southern end of the Red Sea.

Geoff Bennett:

And, as we mentioned, the U.S. announced this creation of this multinational task force to protect commercial traffic through the Red Sea.

How exactly will that work? And, in your estimation, will it be enough to deter future attacks?

Gen. Frank McKenzie:

The ships will be important.

We will provide ships. Our friends and partners will provide ships. And those warships that will be out there shepherding the merchant vessels through will be very important. But what will be equally important will be the intelligence architecture that we put over the Bab-el-Mandeb.

You need to see what's going on. You do that through manned patrol aircraft, unmanned aircraft, drones, all kinds of other intelligence gathering systems to actually see what the Houthis are up to. And this also has another effect we know from many years of dealing with Iran. They don't like to be observed.

It can have a deterring effect. In 2019, our heavy use of ISR, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, assets around the Strait of Hormuz prevented the Iranians from carrying out nefarious attacks. May or may not be enough with the Houthis. They tend to be very aggressive.

I think at some point we're probably going to have to consider striking some of these Houthi launch sites, command-and-control posts, radar outposts, those things that make their attacks possible. The Houthis will respect that. They will understand. And, frankly, I think the odds of an escalatory spiral coming from a self-defense strike down in Yemen, those odds are very small.

Geoff Bennett:

BP is now the latest company to announce it's going to be pausing shipments through the Red Sea.

As we mentioned, with so much global trade going through that area, what does that mean for the future of big business?

Gen. Frank McKenzie:

Well, I think if we're unable to reestablish and reassert the right of free passage here and keep the Houthis from making these attacks, everything's going to slow down.

It's 14 more days to go around Africa to come up either east or west. And that will tend to exert greater pressure on the market, probably the energy market first, but other markets as well. So it's in everyone's interest. Every nation that moves on the global commons actually has an interest in ensuring that the Bab-el-Mandeb is going to be open for the right of free passage of ships.

Geoff Bennett:

As you mentioned, the Houthis are an Iranian proxy.

What does all of this suggest about the potential for Israel's war against Hamas to escalate into a wider regional conflict?

Gen. Frank McKenzie:

So, I think the odds of the escalation beyond Gaza are actually fairly small right now.

Lebanese Hezbollah has not chosen to enter the fray, despite the fact they're exchanging low levels of fire with Israel on its northern border. Iran has not chosen to directly attack Israel. Those are important things that have perhaps been overlooked. Hamas is not getting a lot of support from those two entities.

Now, the Houthis are. But, again, as I said, the Houthis have limited ability actually to strike Israel. They're reduced to carrying out attacks down around the Bab-el-Mandeb, and they are doing that. But I believe that's a problem we can solve. We may need to be a little more aggressive about it than we have been today, but I believe that's a solvable problem.

But the larger issue is, I don't think it leads to escalation.

Geoff Bennett:

Retired General Frank McKenzie, thanks, as always, for your insights.

Gen. Frank McKenzie:

Thank you.