How Trump’s criminal and civil cases could shape the 2024 campaign

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• Geoff Bennett:

  While Donald Trump holds a decisive lead in the 2024 Republican presidential primary, his 2024 calendar will be full of legal challenges and court appearances.

  In four major criminal cases, the former president faces 91 felony counts, and two key civil cases could cost him millions of dollars in damages.

  To help bring us up to speed on where these legal troubles stand and their potential impact on his campaign, we're joined by NPR justice correspondent Carrie Johnson.

  Carrie, welcome back to the "NewsHour."

• Carrie Johnson, NPR:

  Thanks for having me, Geoff.

• Geoff Bennett:

  So, before we talk about the trials and legal exposure facing Donald Trump, I want to ask you about the Michigan Supreme Court rejecting an effort to remove him from that state's 2024 primary ballot under the Constitution's so-called Insurrection Clause.

  How did that court take into account Donald Trump's actions on January 6? And how did the outcome differ from the Colorado case?

• Carrie Johnson:

  Yes, this was an important decision from the Michigan Supreme Court, but it was a procedural one.

  The High Court in that state left open the possibility that Trump could be disqualified from the general election ballot, but allowed his name to continue on the Republican Party ballot for the primary. And they decided that on procedural grounds. They did not get to the substance of whether the former president had engaged in an insurrection and should be booted off the ballot for that reason.

  And that's one key difference between what the Michigan High Court did and what the High Court did in Colorado. In Colorado, of course, we had a five-day civil trial, where among other people who testified was a U.S. Capitol Police officer who talked about the violence he suffered on January 6, 2021 at the Capitol.

  And that court basically found that Trump should be kicked off the ballot in the state of Colorado. The Republican Party in that state has now pressed the Supreme Court, the U.S. Supreme Court, to hear that case.

• Geoff Bennett:

  All right.

  Well, Donald Trump faces up to five separate trials in 2024. Let's start with the special counsel Jack Smith's election interference case. Yesterday, he filed a motion trying to block Donald Trump from injecting politics into the case. Tell us more about that and give us a status update on this case.

• Carrie Johnson:

  That case, of course, had been set to go to trial in March 2024 in Washington, D.C., just a few steps away from the U.S. Capitol.

  But everything's on pause, Geoff, while the former president appeals the idea of whether or not he has lifetime immunity from federal prosecution for acts he committed while he was in the White House. And so we're waiting for the federal appeals court in Washington to hear that case in early January.

  And, eventually, the U.S. Supreme Court may need to weigh in there as well. But the special prosecutor, Jack Smith, has asked the trial court judge to consider blocking Trump from presenting certain kinds of evidence in the case when it finally does happen. The special counsel seems to be worried that Trump is going to make all kinds of arguments about vindictive prosecution and allege that current President Joe Biden has directed the Justice Department to go after him.

  And the special counsel says those arguments are improper, they could inflame and prejudice the jury, and Trump should not be allowed to argue those things before a jury.

• Geoff Bennett:

  And Donald Trump is also facing a federal indictment for illegally holding on to and mishandling sensitive national security documents at his Mar-a-Lago club.

  Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump nominee, has scheduled that trial to start on May 20. But how likely is it that it starts next spring or, for that matter, even before Election Day?

• Carrie Johnson:

  I think it's unlikely, Geoff.

  As you mentioned, in that case, there's a high volume of very classified information that both sides are going back and forth on now with the judge. The judge has kind of tapped the brakes in terms of all of that litigation over the highly classified materials.

  We know, for instance, the former president allegedly kept those papers in a ballroom, in a bathroom at Mar-a-Lago. The question is how much of that stuff the jury may actually get to be able to see. Judge Cannon has directed both sides in that case to submit a possible jury questionnaire by the end of February.

  But a lot of people, including parties involved in that case, think it will be delayed past May, maybe past the election too.

• Geoff Bennett:

  And then shifting our focus to Georgia, the Georgia election interference case, as I understand it, there is no start date for that trial just yet.

  But Donald Trump's attorneys are trying to get the case tossed on First Amendment grounds? Is that right?

• Carrie Johnson:

  Yes.

  Trump's lawyers are arguing that everything he said and did in advance of the January 6 violence at the Capitol and the aftermath should be protected by the First Amendment. Of course, Geoff, other courts and other cities have totally disregarded that argument by the former president. But his attorneys in Fulton County say they're going to make it there.

  The district attorney in Fulton County wants Trump to go to trial in August of next year. That seems unlikely, given the sprawling RICO nature of that case, though.

• Geoff Bennett:

  And, Carrie, Donald Trump is also facing verdicts in two civil cases in New York. What should we expect there?

• Carrie Johnson:

  Sure.

  In January, Judge Engoron is expected to hand down his decision in that big case against the Trump Organization, which Donald Trump calls the corporate death penalty hanging over him there. And then the writer E. Jean Carroll has sued Trump once again for defamation. She's seeking millions of dollars in money damages against him.

• Geoff Bennett:

  NPR's Carrie Johnson.

  Carrie, thanks so much for helping us make sense of the galaxy of legal troubles facing Donald Trump.

• Carrie Johnson:

  It's a lot.

  Happy to be here. Thank you.