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Impact of Race on Election Remains an Unknown Factor

With Election Day near, questions over how race will impact voter choices in the first presidential election with an African-American candidate representing a major party remain a looming factor. Analysts discuss the role race has -- and has not -- played in the contest.

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Notice: Transcripts are machine and human generated and lightly edited for accuracy. They may contain errors.

  • GWEN IFILL:

    Barack Obama may be the nation's first African-American major party presidential nominee, but he has run a studiously race-neutral campaign.

    Still, the race issue never quite goes away, whether it is raised by worried supporters like the Pennsylvania congressman who said race would cost Obama votes, or the radio talk show hosts who dismissed Colin Powell's endorsement as entirely race-based.

    So how much do we really know about whether the Illinois senator's race will hurt or help on Election Day?

    For that, we turn to Michael Fauntroy, professor of public policy at George Mason University and author of the book "Republicans and the Black Vote"; Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press; and Eddie Glaude, Jr., a professor of religion and African-American studies at Princeton. He's author of "In a Shade of Blue: Pragmatism and the Politics of Black America."

    Andy Kohut, polls show that Barack Obama has been doing relatively well for some time. Even as he leads the race, is there any way, as you look at your measurements, to discover whether race has been a negative or a positive?

  • ANDREW KOHUT, President, Pew Research Center:

    Well, it's a little bit of a both. It's more of a negative than a positive. And it's clearly there. It's not a dominant factor.

    But we know that, when we score people according to how racially tolerant or intolerant they are, that small group of people that continue to be racially intolerant are less inclined to vote for Barack Obama.

    We knew in the exit polls we'd get about 13 percent in a typical state saying that race was a consideration when they cast their ballot. And in private, they checked off the fact that they voted for Hillary Clinton more often than they voted for Barack Obama compared to the people who said race was not a factor.

    It's there. To my mind, and to my measurements, it's a second-tier factor for Obama.

  • GWEN IFILL:

    It's not a determining factor?

  • ANDREW KOHUT:

    It's not a — it's not as important as saying that Obama is not experienced enough, he lacks the qualifications, or he's not tough enough, but it's there as a factor.

    And the important thing about it is to — it's to some extent an unknown. We don't know whether the polls are underestimating the size of the racially intolerant segment of the electorate.

  • GWEN IFILL:

    Michael Fauntroy, what do you think of that?

  • MICHAEL FAUNTROY, George Mason University:

    I agree with Andy. And I would also say that, even though it is a second-tier issue — and I agree that it's a second-tier issue — it should also be noted, though, that in a close election, a second-tier issue could be enough to move enough votes in one state or another.

    Now, the way the polls are right now suggests that there may be enough of a spread where it won't impact the turnout or the final results in one state or another.

    But if this race tightens between now and Election Day — and historically, all elections do — it could potentially have an impact in one state or another. And at that point, you know, anything could happen and we could possibly end up in a long night on election night.