Intelligence Report Predicts Dire Future for Iraq’s Security

JEFFREY BROWN:

It has a bureaucratic title, "Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead," but the so-called National Intelligence Estimate, or NIE, has been much-anticipated as a window into how the intelligence community sees the state of play in Iraq, and it comes amid a heated political debate in Washington.

A declassified portion of the report was released today, the first one on Iraq to become public since the controversial estimate that was prepared shortly before the war. It begins in stark terms: "Iraqi society's growing polarization, the persistent weakness of the security forces and the state in general, and all sides' ready recourse to violence are collectively driving an increase in communal and insurgent violence and political extremism. Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this estimate, the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter part of 2006."

For a further look, we're joined now by Paul Pillar. He served as the CIA's national intelligence officer for the Near East and South Asia from 2000 to 2005. He managed a number of intelligence estimates, including on Iraq. He's now on the faculty at Georgetown University.

And Robert Grenier served as the Iraq mission manager at the CIA from 2002 to 2004.

Welcome to both of you.

PAUL PILLAR, Former Deputy Director, CIA Counterterrorism Center:

Thank you.

JEFFREY BROWN:

Let's start with you, with an overall assessment of the assessments. Do they pull any punches here?

ROBERT GRENIER, Former CIA Agent:

No, actually, I was quite favorably impressed. Given the political climate within which these judgments are being made, I was afraid that there would be a tendency to over-equivocate, to try to sugarcoat the results.

And I don't think that this estimate, at least as reflected in the key judgments, does that. I think they made some very tough calls, and I think they do it in clear language.

JEFFREY BROWN:

Paul Pillar, what portrait of Iraq comes through here?

PAUL PILLAR:

It's a portrait of a very grim and difficult situation, as the national security adviser said today in commenting on it. I agree with Bob. I don't think punches were pulled. There's no surprise here for anyone who has been following the Iraq story over these last four years, but it's a very clear statement of both the current situation and trends.

JEFFREY BROWN:

Remind us what this report is. Who does it, and for whom, and how important are they — how seriously are they taken?

PAUL PILLAR:

A National Intelligence Estimate is one of a number of different products that the intelligence community produces in which all the constituent agencies, some 16 or so, are involved, under the leadership now of the director of national intelligence. So this is not just the statement of CIA or any one agency.

They seem to have a larger or better cache, National Intelligence Estimates do, than some of those other products. But in terms of how much attention they're paid, well, in the end, the policymaker decides on policy.