Iowans face freezing temperatures to caucus in 1st contest of 2024 campaign

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• Geoff Bennett:

  The 2024 presidential election officially kicks off tonight.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Some Republicans are enduring frigid weather to participate in these Iowa caucuses.

  Lisa Desjardins is there with the latest — Lisa.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  We're in Western Warren. This is one of over 700 caucus sites around the state, the temperature zero degrees and dropping.

  Now, Iowans know how to handle cold weather, but they have rarely seen temperatures or a caucus like this.

  This is not normal. The 2024 Iowa caucuses probably won't be remembered for any speech, debate or slogan, but instead for this, a weeklong arctic blast with record-setting snowfall, powerful gusts and windchill readings in the 40s below zero. It all choked campaigns to a near-halt at one point, and when candidates did return, the storm still took center stage.

• Donald Trump:

  When everyone's talking about, oh, the weather's going to be so tough.

  Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Presidential Candidate: Are you ready to brave the cold and make your voice heard tonight?

  Nikki Haley (R), Presidential Candidate: I mean, my Southern skin has struggled, but I will tell you, you all are taking it to a whole new level.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  And the weather is just one piece of an extra weird election cycle.

• Donald Trump:

  We're in Iowa.

  (CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

• Lisa Desjardins:

  One candidate, a former president named Donald Trump, leads in Iowa polls by roughly 30 points.

• Donald Trump:

  Ask yourselves, who does the radical left and the Washington swamp fear more, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSanctimonious, or President Donald J. Trump? I can tell you right now…

• Lisa Desjardins:

  It's not clear if this is a competitive contest, but, if it is, there's only one question, Trump or, as his two main opponents argue, not Trump.

• Gov. Ron DeSantis:

  Donald Trump, if he's the nominee, the whole election is going to be about legal issues, criminal trials.

• Nikki Haley:

  I agree with a lot of his policies. But rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him. You know I'm right. Chaos follows him.

  (APPLAUSE)

• Lisa Desjardins:

  But so does deep support.

• Don Buhrow, Donald Trump Supporter:

  There are no other ones as far as I'm concerned. I have been a Trump supporter ever since he walked down the escalator in 2015.

• Denise Nelson, Donald Trump Supporter:

  He is a man that stands behind his word. He will get the job done.

• Valerie Sutton, Donald Trump Supporter:

  I think Iowans favor Trump. I really do. He's still the leader. He is, in my opinion, the greatest president of all time.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Working mom Valerie Sutton means that. She's the latest generation to run her family's over-100-year-old greenhouse west of Des Moines. Trump's America first push, to her, made the world safer and the American economy stronger.

  Sutton sees his main challengers, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, falling short.

• Valerie Sutton:

  What I think about Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis is that they are politicians. And that is another thing that I really like about Trump, is that he's a businessman, and I think that the government needs to be run like a business.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Her business is in Dallas County, critical territory, where Des Moines suburbs meet some of rural Central Iowa.

  One of the fastest growing places in the country, Trump won the 2016 general election here by 10 points. But in 2020, his margin was just two points. It's a national harbinger. And if either DeSantis or Haley has any chance to make gains in Iowa, it will be in a county like Dallas.

• Dennis Mandsager, Nikki Haley Supporter:

  This is my dad's family.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  And that's happening with Dennis Mandsager, a former naval officer, and his wife, Sherrie, a retired teacher, both Republicans for Haley.

• Dennis Mandsager:

  Well, the first thing that really caught my attention was her position Ukraine. I'm deeply concerned about that conflict, and I definitely think we need to support Ukraine.

• Sherrie Mandsager, Nikki Haley Supporter:

  I like Nikki's position abortion, which is more liberal than our governor's.

  Sherrie and Dennis each voted for President Trump in 2020 and they know he leaves the GOP race now.

• Sherrie Mandsager:

  I would not vote for him again. I would go with a third-party candidate versus Trump. And I would never vote for Biden.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Why a third-party candidate now?

• Sherrie Mandsager:

  I don't like his attitude of how he has to always degrade people. He's always calling people names. And, as a teacher, you teach your kids, your students not to do that.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  In Iowa, even supporters of his opponents ask about Trump.

• Chris Garcia, Ron DeSantis Supporter:

  Why haven't you gone directly after him?

• Gov. Ron DeSantis:

  What do you mean by going directly after?

• Lisa Desjardins:

  That's 75-year-old Chris Garcia, a second-generation Mexican American who's lived in and around Dallas County his whole life and plans to caucus for DeSantis.

• Chris Garcia:

  He united Florida, and he did a good job of it. But you know what he does? He does what he tells he's going to do.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Garcia voted for President Trump in 2020 and would support him again if he wins the nomination, but he has reservations.

• Chris Garcia:

  He says some things that I don't know where he's getting it from. I think he talks out of the side of his mouth before he realizes what he says.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  It's DeSantis who essentially bet it all in Iowa, both in time and money, a bet that's paid off in some cases.

• Tim Gorre, Ron DeSantis Supporter:

  These canvassers came out to my house, and I kind of live out — so it's kind of like they made this effort to call on me. And I talked to them. And I told them I would give him a chance.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  But it is Haley who has risen, with help from some Trump Republicans.

• Mark Jorgensen, Nikki Haley Supporter:

  I have been a Trump guy. And if he wasn't so divisive, I'd be a Trump guy again. But Nikki Haley's got similar thoughts.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  And also from some never-Trumpers who like her.

• Lynh Patterson, Nikki Haley Supporter:

  I'm actually a Democrat that changed my registration to be Republican, so I can caucus for her.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  That is the strange political landscape of Iowa and 2024, a few candidates hustling to shake as many hands as possible, but who still can't match the draw of a single Trump event.

  Kelley Koch chairs Dallas County's GOP and says her purple county is still Trump country.

• Kelley Koch, Chairs, Dallas County, Iowa, Republican Party:

  GOP Initially, I think a lot of people were naive that the MAGA grip was so deep, they didn't really feel that way. As we march closer to caucus, there's been a rise up. And then one by one, you see these candidates not polling, not getting traction.

  And they leave, and I think they underestimated the MAGA grip.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Iowa likes surprises, Huckabee in 2008, Santorum in 2012. But this year, the weather has shocked, with Trump clearly aware of turnout risks.

• Donald Trump:

  You can't sit home. If you're sick as a dog, you say, darling, I have got to make it. Even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it, remember?

  (LAUGHTER)

• Donald Trump:

  Indeed, some like this Trump supporter may not vote.

  Chris Siedlik, Donald Trump supporter: I'm thinking about it. You know, it just depends on the weather and stuff like that too. So, I'm going to see, wait and see.

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Millions of dollars in a year of campaigning, but it is the air above Iowa that could determine if Republicans have a real race for president.

  Now if the temperature drops just a few more degrees, this will in fact be the coldest Iowa caucuses on record — Amna.

• Amna Nawaz:

  Lisa, the big questions tonight in those frigid temperatures are turnout and expectations. What's your reporting telling you?

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Well, Ron DeSantis, as we said, has the biggest ground game here. He's counting on that to get his voters out.

  But I will tell you, when I have gone to his events, I have seen many undecided voters. I have been to places where really they were handing out yard signs and people weren't picking them up. So it is a real test of his operation tonight.

  Nikki Haley, in contrast, has the smallest operation in the state, but she's got momentum. Things have been turning her way. The question is whether she has enough people. She's been asking members of Congress, for example, to make calls for her, as I have been reporting, around here.

  President Trump, he's counting on the enthusiasm, sort of the passion of his supporters. But one thing he needs to watch out for is that he is more at risk for a factor that affects rural voters. They are more likely to be farther away from their caucus site, more likely to be apprehensive, perhaps, of going out in the cold weather.

  One other factor that could affect everyone, it's a big football night. Would you rather go out in this cold or watch a football game tonight?

  One more thing, Amna, that I think I can't overstate, there is a real sense of apathy almost in Iowa now. We have rarely seen any yard signs, just one in all of our travels across the state. And I talked to one voter who said there's a thickness in the air, a sense of deja vu, no matter who you support, that they're going over the same fights again and again, not really as much excitement as I have seen in the past.

• Amna Nawaz:

  All right, Lisa, we know there are 99 counties across the state of Iowa. We know our audience can also follow along as those results come in tonight.

  If you were them, what are some good counties to zero in on and track?

• Lisa Desjardins:

  Oh, I love talking about the county-by-county map.

  Let's start over west, one of my favorites, Pottawattamie County. This is a rural county. Donald Trump had a big night there in 2016. He lost the state overall to Ted Cruz in the caucuses, but he did well there, and he's got to have a big night there tonight. I'd watch that early to kind of see how Donald Trump does in rural areas.

  Ted — Ron DeSantis was there today, though, thinking perhaps he can make up ground in that conservative area. Let us go east to the Mississippi River counties. Those are counties that were very close between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Marco Rubio also did well there. Those are places where, if someone breaks out, we could see that in those Mississippi River counties on the east.

  And then, right where I am, right outside of Des Moines, you have got Polk County and also Dallas County. These are the population centers, Amna. If Nikki Haley is going to have a big night, it's going to be right here. So stay tuned.

• Amna Nawaz:

  All right, Lisa Desjardins and team outside for us in Des Moines, Iowa.

  Lisa, thank you. We will be checking in with you as the night goes on.

  And you can follow the live caucus results on our Web site and during our special coverage later tonight right here on PBS.