Iranian-backed groups raise threat of drawing U.S. into a wider Middle East conflict

Aman Nawaz:

The U.S. Consulate in Irbil in Northern Iraq came under fire tonight, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility, according to Iranian state media. It's just the latest in a series of attacks by Iranian and Iranian-backed militia across the region since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7 and Israel launched its response in Gaza.

Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Israel Defense Forces have traded barrages, while the Houthis in Yemen have lobbed missiles toward Israel and continue attacking ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

For more on Iran's objectives and influence, we turn now to Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

So, Karim, before we get into the details of some of these groups and their relationship with Iran, just broadly speaking, what's Iran's objective? What's the strategy here in the use of these proxy militias?

Karim Sadjadpour, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: It's an important question, Amna.

I would argue, since Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution, there have been very few governments in the world that have had a more clear and consistent grand strategy over the last four or five decades.

And there's essentially three pillars to that strategy. Number one, Iran is intent on evicting the United States from the Middle East. Number two, they're intent on replacing Israel with Palestine. And, number three, they want to help defeat the U.S.-led world order.

So, I would argue Iran and all of its regional proxies share these — all these three objectives.

Amna Nawaz:

Use of those proxy militias also gives them some degree of deniability.

The fact that they claim responsibility for this attack on the U.S. Consulate in Northern Iraq as quickly as they did, what does that say to you?

Karim Sadjadpour:

Iran has a pretty — is oftentimes a pretty good judge of U.S. resolve. And so the fact that they are publicly claiming credit for attacks on U.S. outposts in the region probably means that they don't fear conflict with the United States, because they know this is a Biden administration which is intent on trying to de-escalate and avert conflicts in the region.

And, in some ways, that emboldens Iran.

Amna Nawaz:

So we know that Iran also backs both Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. How is their relationship with each of those groups different? And how is it the same?

Karim Sadjadpour:

Well, Hezbollah is the crown jewel of the Iranian Revolution. It's the most powerful of Iran's proxies.

And it's essentially part of Iran's Revolutionary Guards. It's really a wholly owned subsidiary of the Iranian state. The Houthis are being trained by Hezbollah. And over the last decade, their relationship with Iran has grown much closer.

And so, at the end of the day, Iran doesn't micromanage these proxies. It doesn't call up Hezbollah or the Houthis or the Shia militias in Iraq and tell them what to do on a day-to-day basis. But it certainly macromanages those groups. And those groups, as I mentioned, they share these strategic objectives of trying to evict America from the Middle East and replace Israel with Palestine.

Amna Nawaz:

But the fact that we have seen this ramping up of the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, the ramping up of Hezbollah attacks across the border with Israel, is that being coordinated through Iran in any way? And could they call them off if they needed to?

Karim Sadjadpour:

I think there's no doubt it's being coordinated with the Iranian government. Hasan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has come out and said that all of Hezbollah's funding comes from Iran.

We know a giant chunk of Houthi funding comes from Iran. Hamas' military budget, 80 percent comes from Iran. So this is not simply charity that Iran is offering its proxies. This type of aid and support, military support, comes with major strings attached.

So, if Iran ordered its proxies to cease all attacks on U.S. interests on Israel, I expect that they would do so right away.

Amna Nawaz:

Karim, tell me about the domestic pressure Iranian leadership is under that leads them to think this is the right strategy right now.

Karim Sadjadpour:

Well, the Iranian regime is deeply unpopular. It's essentially a socially authoritarian police state with a failing economy. Very few Iranians want to continue to live under the Islamic Republic.

But the reality is, as long as this Iranian regime remains in power, there's never going to be real, meaningful stability in the Middle East, because this is a regime which really thrives with regional instability. The countries we have been talking about today, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Gaza, these are all essentially failing states.

And so Iran has more effectively figured out how to fill power vacuums more than any other actor in the region. It thrives on this instability, and so does its proxies.

Amna Nawaz:

That is Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Karim, thank you. Good to speak with you.

Karim Sadjadpour:

Thank you so much, Amna.