Iran’s Future Unclear Following Presidential Election

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• MARGARET WARNER:

  So, what should we make of news from Iran and this election campaign? To help us sort things out, we're joined by Afshin Molavi, a fellow at the New America Foundation and the author of "The Soul of Iran," and Cliff Kupchan, the director of the Europe and Eurasia Program at the Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm.

  Welcome to you both.

  So, Afshin, let me begin with you.

  What do you make of what happened today. Hours before anyone was supposed to come out and talk about results, first, you had Mousavi come out and say, "I know I won."

  And then you had the election commission come out and say, "Oh, no, Ahmadinejad is way ahead."

  AFSHIN MOLAVI, fellow, New America Foundation: Well, you know, Margaret, this is very common in Iranian presidential elections.

  In the 2005 elections, you had four or five candidates declare early victory. So, in a sense…

• MARGARET WARNER:

  But the election commission?

• AFSHIN MOLAVI:

  That's right.

  The election commission has — I mean, has pointed out that, of the 45 percent of the vote, Ahmadinejad is ahead. This is what is different from the 2009 — the 2005 elections. Because, in 2005, they just announced the election results early in the morning. They didn't do this kind of rolling results.

  And this is what many of Mousavi supporters feared. This is why we are seeing some rioting already.

• MARGARET WARNER:

  What do you make of it?

  CLIFF KUPCHAN, Europe and Eurasia program director, Eurasia Group: I think both sides were trying to set the tone of the day.

  But the tone of the day was set by what looks like some controversial results emerging. We are at a very early point in that. The great fear is that Supreme Leader Khamenei looked at Mr. Mousavi, who is a moderate, and was fine, looked over his shoulder, and saw Khatami and a lot of kids who don't necessarily believe in the system.