Israel weighs its response to Iran’s attack as world leaders rush to contain conflict

Read the Full Transcript

• John Yang:

  Good evening, I'm John Yang. The day after Iran use drones and missiles to carry out its first ever direct assault on Israel, diplomacy took center stage today. Leaders from the White House to capitals around the globe are scrambling tonight to try to keep this unfolding and perilous conflict from spiraling out of control. Tonight our coverage begins with Nick Schifrin.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Above the holiest sites and one of the world's holiest cities rockets lit up the night sky and Israeli air defense blocked an unprecedented Iranian attack across all of Israel. The Israeli Defense Forces said it thwarted 99 percent of more than 300 drones and missiles, the majority launched from Iran, but some also came from Iranian back proxies in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

  American officials say the U.S. shot down at least 75 of them almost all in Jordanian airspace. Israel said the only missiles that entered Israeli airspace where ballistic including one that wounded a seven-year old girl, Israel reported no deaths and only minor damage to an Air Force Base.

  Iran said they were responding Israel's killing senior Iranian generals inside Iran's Damascus consulate and called the attack tit for tat.

  Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, Joint Chief of Staff, Iran (through translator): From our point of view, this operation is over and there is no intention to continue the operation. But if the Zionist regime takes any action against the Islamic Republic, our next operation will be much larger.

• Nick Schifrin:

  By the light of day, Israelis returned to normal but the region is anything but and Israel's leadership says the incident is very much not over.

• Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, Israel Defense Forces Spokesperson:

  We are still on high alert and assessing the situation. Over the last few hours, we approved operational plans for both offensive and defensives action.

• Nick Schifrin:

  But the U.S. is counseling restraint. President Biden and the leaders of the world's seventh largest industrialized nations warned Iran's attack could lead to quote uncontrollable escalation. They vowed to deescalate. And then a phone call, Biden told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the U.S. would not take part in Israeli retaliation. National Security Spokesman John Kirby repeated that message this morning.

• John Kirby, White House National Security Communications Adviser:

  It's going to be up to the Israelis to decide what the next step is here. I will just say this President Biden since the beginning of this conflict has worked very hard to keep this from becoming a broader regional war to keep the tensions from escalating.

  Nick Schifrin Senior administration officials said today the G7 group of countries could impose new coordinated sanctions and other countries could join the U.S. in labeling the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist group, that is the diplomatic focus John that the U.S. wants of course with the major focus we are waiting for the major response were waiting for Israel's military response.

• John Yang:

  Nick, let's start by looking back at last night. But there's this really remarkable effect of Israel blunting this attack. The United States did have moved some U.S. assets into the region. How important were they in this operation?

• Nick Schifrin:

  President Biden himself said it was absolutely essential over the last 10 days Israel in the United States have been working coordinated on this response, a senior administration official said, and that included moving fighter squadrons into better positions. And those fighter squadrons shot down more than 70 drones. The U.S. also moved an additional destroyer into the region to join a destroyer already there. And that helps shoot down four or six of those 100 plus ballistic missiles fired by Iran toward Israel.

  We know of no previous occasion in U.S.-Israeli history in which the U.S. launched jets during an attack on Israel or fired missiles from boats during an attack on Israel. Strategically, the reason that is so important, John, is that a senior administration official said that if this attack had succeeded, there would have been, quote, uncontrollable escalation and a broader regional conflict.

  The U.S. assesses that this attack was absolutely designed to kill Israelis and inflict widespread damage. And the fact is, it didn't. And if that had happened, the assumption is that Israel and Iran perhaps might be at war already.

• John Yang:

  Looking forward, as Israel does ponder what to do next. What are the factors they're weighing and what's the United States telling them?

• Nick Schifrin:

  Israeli media already reported that there was a quick Cabinet meeting last night in which Israeli leaders considered an immediate strike, but that the Biden-Bibi phone call and Netanyahu-Biden phone call seems to have tamped down the possibility of that, and Israeli officials today are saying they will strike whenever they deceive — they deem it proper to strike.

  There are military — many military options for Israel, of course, inside Iran itself, whether that's Iranian government, IRGC, the nuclear sites even but a senior administration official said two important things today, one, Israel's made clear to us they are not looking for a significant escalation with Iran. If that is accurate. That means that they are not looking to strike directly against Iran, at least at the moment.

  And two, a senior administration official said very bluntly, we would not be part of any response they do. That is a long standing U.S. policy, but still to say that is really to send the message to Israel, if you're going to do this, or especially if we're going to attack Iran, you would be on your own.

  And part of what the administration says trying to do is, quote, slow things down. And that, as you said, at the top is a focus on diplomacy. The U.S. hopes to isolate Iran through some of those sanctions and perhaps terrorism designations as well.

  And the flip of that is less isolation, they hope on Israel. You seen in the last few hours, the European Union diplomats, the U.N. diplomats who have been very critical of Israel over the war in Gaza, support Israel, and it's — and it's — and then condemn Iran, in no uncertain ways.

  And so that is where we are today with us focus on diplomacy, President Hertzog of Israel saying, quote, We are not war seekers, but we'll see how Israel chooses to respond.

• John Yang:

  Nick Schifrin, thank you very much.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Thank you.

• John Yang:

  Let's bring in Aaron David Miller. He's a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He's played a key role in U.S.-Middle East policy for every president from Jimmy Carter to George W. Bush.

  Aaron is as Israel ponders its next move, how significant is it that this attack is administration officials are saying this attack was on the high side of what they were expecting. And yet Israel was really able to blunt it that it caused a relatively little damage.

  Aaron David Miller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: I think it's an extraordinary testament, frankly, to technology. Iron Dome and arrow three, which is the latest arrow and iteration plus extremely significant amount of help from U.S. aircraft and Israeli aircraft.

  I mean, 350 crews, ballistic, and pilotless drones. It's sort of a milestone, I would think in Modern Warfare, given the effectiveness of these really layered defenses. So I think that's, that's quite extraordinary.

• John Yang:

  And it's been reported that President Biden advised Prime Minister Netanyahu last night to take the win and do nothing. What do you think of that advice?

• Aaron David Miller:

  You know, I think the President does not want to see an escalation, let alone something that could trip into a real regional war, which would be exchanges over a sustained period of time between Israel and Iran with ballistic missiles.

  A major flare up turned into a major war between Israel and Hezbollah. Hezbollah can cover most of Israel with its high trajectory weapons and I suspect Mr. Biden also understands it in a scenario like that prospects of U.S. involvement are pretty high.

  So, he's given the Israeli prime minister the best he advice he can pocket to win. You're now occupying the moral high ground tensions between the U.S. and Israel have essentially ease nobody's talking about conditioning military assistance, or restricting that little an ending it to Israel. All of that, I think is is being taken seriously by the Israeli war candidate.

• John Yang:

  You know, Iran said last night, that this sort of closes the door on the Syrian tat strike that started this that they were responding to, if Iran isn't going to do more, what about their proxies? What about the Houthis? What about Hezbollah? Are they likely to step up?

• Aaron David Miller:

  I think those attacks will continue. But I do believe in Iran has only — has a vote, but the Israelis have a vote as well. So, it's well and good for the Iranians to say we're done. But they're not the only party involved in this.

  I suspect that pro-Iranian militias, at least for the short term won't give the Israelis any pretext or excuse for responding. But I do think and the war cabinets divided on this, I think everyone, including the five, including men against believes the responses necessary, the timing of that response, I think is up in the air. And the scale of that response is up in the air.

  So, I think Israel will capitalize now on the fact that they've got an enormous — the G7 statement was extraordinary in terms of its support for Israel, no concern over Israeli strikes, and a strong statement that it that also appeared to isolate Iran.

  So I think the Israelis will ride that for a while. But at some point, I think there will be an accounting and it probably will be directed at Iranian assets in Iran.

• John Yang:

  What does all this do to the war in Gaza, and especially the negotiations to try to get the hostages back?

• Aaron David Miller:

  I think there it's a serious tragedy on the part of the hostages and their families. Hamas had no real incentive. They believe that pressure on Israel, Israeli withdrawal of forces from Gaza was working in their favor. They were delaying hoping to get a better deal.

  And frankly, I'm not sure the Netanyahu government fell all that much urgency given the fact that any deal free hostages is going to result in an asymmetrical number of Palestinian prisoners freed which is going to stress Mr. Netanyahu's own coalition.

  But I think Hamas now will wait to see how much chaos and confrontation and confusion will result from this potential Iranian Israeli fight. And I suspect there'll be no deal on hostages and probably no operation against Rafah either, but Gaza still will be the focus because of its proximity problem. And these rallies of hostages. And they're still determined, I think to eliminate the senior leadership.

• John Yang:

  Aaron David Miller, thank you very much.

• Aaron David Miller:

  Thank you John.