Karl Rove and David Axelrod give their midterm predictions

Geoff Bennett:

Turning now to the upcoming elections here in the U.S., Republican Karl Rove is known for his hardball politics promoting the GOP,but he recently announced this year he's voting for a Democrat.

Amna Nawaz:

Our Lisa Desjardins sat down with him, along with another architect of modern politics. That's Democrat David Axelrod.

Their conversation at The Economic Club of Chicago covered election security, whether Rove will vote for Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, and their midterm predictions.

Lisa Desjardins:

If the election were today, what would this election look like for Democrats?

David Axelrod, Former Senior White House Adviser:

Yes.

Well, the election isn't today. And you have been following the weather. It's very unpredictable. But there are certain things that I think are true and will hold here. My guess is, it will be around with a kind of 15-seat majority, in that neighborhood.

Lisa Desjardins:

Karl?

Karl Rove, Former Senior Adviser to President George W. Bush: Yes.

Lisa Desjardins:

You think the Democrats will take the House?

Karl Rove:

Oh, yes.

Lisa Desjardins:

Not the Senate?

Karl Rove:

Well, look, the Republicans have got a three- or four-seat majority, depending on how you count it. And there are 37 seats that are up for grabs in The Cook Political Report lean Democrat, lean Republican, toss-up.

But I think David's right that it's going to be relatively modest. The Senate is what's going to be interesting, because there the national number is going to have a bigger impact on the generic ballot. But I think it's odd that the last couple of weeks that has gone slightly in the Republican area direction.

Lisa Desjardins:

The Republican nominee for the Texas railroad commissioner has never gotten so much national attention.

Karl Rove:

Oh, yes.

Lisa Desjardins:

Posted a photo of some University of Texas students celebrating a football win. That included some of South Asian descent, and he called them the problem.

What's happening in and to your party because of bigotry?

Karl Rove:

Yes.

I mean, that photograph was unbelievably wonderful, because it's entirely a crowd of burnt orange clad undergraduates at U.T. going completely insane over the victory over Ohio State. It was -- can you imagine the rest of your life as an undergraduate saying, I was there?

Well, how the hell did that guy know that those Asian Americans and the Hispanics and Blacks were foreigners? And what the hell did that matter?

(Applause)

Karl Rove:

If you're not from a white Christian country, he wants you out of the United States of America. And that is a bigot. And I did not become a Republican, the party of Abraham Lincoln, to associate with bigots.

(Applause)

Karl Rove:

So I'm voting for my second Democrat in my entire life.

Lisa Desjardins:

Where do you all think we are in terms of the security of this election? And are you concerned about after this election should the Republicans lose both chambers?

David Axelrod:

Look, this is a concern of mine because I sort of sold my, oh, he'd never do that stock like five years ago. I worry about an attempt by the Justice Department or even the military, if he were to call a national emergency.

So, I mean, I hope I'm wrong about all of it. He will say I'm paranoid, but I think this is an environment where, if you're not paranoid, you're kind of crazy.

Karl Rove:

Yes.

Lisa Desjardins:

Is David a paranoid conspiracy theorist?

Karl Rove:

I have confidence in the administration of our system, in large measure because it's not done at the federal level, where the president can jack around with it. It's done at the state level.

And the idea that the U.S. military would stand up and say we're going to step in and stop the insurrection by unseating these people and seating those people is ridiculous. We should not be sort of overwrought in that respect.

David Axelrod:

But I will say that the election authorities all over the country have sounded an alarm, and they're less confident than Karl that their processes won't be interfered with, and I take them seriously.

Karl Rove:

Do I hear what the state election officials are saying? Yes. And what I hear from them is they're worried about people not showing up to work the polls, and because our system depends upon a lot of...

Lisa Desjardins:

Yes.

David Axelrod:

That's one issue.

Karl Rove:

... good-natured Americans who step forward for two or three days during the election process, or in some cases in the mail-in-ballot heavy states, several weeks before the election and then a week or so after, and volunteer their time. And I worry about that.

Lisa Desjardins:

I want to wrap this up with a lightning round.

Will the war in Iran end before the next Congress begins?

Karl Rove:

Yes.

David Axelrod:

Yes, I think so.

Lisa Desjardins:

Oh, you do? OK.

In the House, will Democrats gain a net of more than 10 seats?

Karl Rove:

Yes.

David Axelrod:

Yes.

Lisa Desjardins:

Wow.

Will Karl vote for Ken Paxton?

(Laughter)

David Axelrod:

Absolutely not.

Lisa Desjardins:

No comment.

Karl Rove:

I defer to my conscience.

(Laughter)

(Applause)

Lisa Desjardins:

Three words that describe this moment in American politics. I can give you a second to think about that one.

Karl Rove:

Bitter, divided, polarized, and we have been here before. We have survived worse.

Lisa Desjardins:

OK. OK, good.

David Axelrod:

So I think this is really a unique moment in history and a really challenging moment, when we have to prove to the world that our democracy is agile enough to function and solve these problems.

Lisa Desjardins:

Thank you all for really a wonderful in-depth conversation.

David Axelrod:

Thank you.

(Applause)

Lisa Desjardins:

Karl Rove, David Axelrod.

And thank you to all of you.