Liberia Changeover

MARGARET WARNER:

What will Charles Taylor's departure mean for Liberia? For that, we turn to Stephen Morrison, director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He held several Africa-related State Department posts in the '90s, here and in Africa. Chris Fomunyoh, senior associate for Africa at the National Democratic Institute. A citizen of Cameroon, he's organized election observation missions in many African countries. And Dennis Jett, a retired U.S. Foreign Service officer. He was ambassador to Mozambique, and deputy chief of mission in Liberia from 1989 to 1991. He is now dean of the International Center at the University of Florida. Welcome to you all.

Mr. Fomunyoh, this is the day that President Bush has been demanding, everyone has been waiting for, for Charles Taylor to leave. Do you think it's going to mark a turning point for Liberia?

CHRIS FOMUNYOH:

I think it will because this is like a tiny bright spot in a very dramatic situation that the people of Liberia have been through. The rebels have been asking for Taylor's departure for a long time now. The West African states have also been asking Taylor to leave as was provided for under the first agreement that was struck in Accra. I think everyone has been waiting for this moment, and hopefully this will provide an opportunity for Liberians to begin to rebuild their country.

MARGARET WARNER:

A bright spot, Mr. Morrison?

STEPHEN MORRISON:

Yes, I think so. This man was a…an especially egregious and pernicious influence over this country and over the region. Getting him out of the picture was an essential ingredient in moving forward.

MARGARET WARNER:

We heard him say, "God willing, I will be back." How do you interpret that? I mean, what are the conditions under which, for instance, he's going to Nigeria? Will he be able to continue to meddle?

STEPHEN MORRISON:

He will certainly attempt to. He has many different instruments at his disposal. We saw just last week he slipped out of town and went off to Burkina Faso and Libya to try and get weapons. But he will be under fairly strict restrictions in Nigeria. And I think his comments today were more a reflection of his megalomania than of the reality of his ability to actually maneuver in this coming phase.

MARGARET WARNER:

Ambassador Jett, what are your expectations for bringing or restoring some real stability in Liberia now?

DENNIS JETT:

Well, I'm not as optimistic as your earlier two guests. I think it is a bright spot but as was mentioned a very small bright spot. Getting rid of Taylor was a necessary condition for peace but not a sufficient condition. The basic fundamental problem has not been resolved, and that is who rules Liberia. You either have to have a president that is legitimately elected and has legitimacy and is recognized as such by Liberians, or you could conceivably have a dictator who had the power to impose his will, but the country simply doesn't have the resources to permit a dictator to do that. Insurrections have been fairly low-budget affairs. So the basic fundamental power problem not having been resolved, I think we'll probably only see a brief respite from the fighting and then it will resume as the next collection of thugs fights over the spoils.

MARGARET WARNER:

What is the power situation now, Mr. Fomunyoh, I mean Moses Blah we saw take over but who is he? There will be anything different about his rule and pick up on the comments Ambassador Jett said about really being pretty unworkable.

CHRIS FOMUNYOH:

Sure. I think that, you know, we all are hoping that we collectively, the Liberian people and friends of Liberia, don't make the mistakes that we went through in the mid '90s, in 1997, when there was an election that brought Taylor to power in the hopes that he will bring about some peace, transform himself from a warlord into a legitimately elected president. Unfortunately in the past six years we haven't seen that. And now we have Blah who steps into a mandate that was supposed to expire in October of this year. We also have Liberian leaders, political and civic leaders, discussing in Accra, Ghana about the possibilities for a transition government.

MARGARET WARNER:

Let me interrupt you and just make this clear. They're supposed to come up with what, some kind of agreed-upon transition government that would take over in October?

CHRIS FOMUNYOH:

That's correct. That would lead a transition period during which elections could then be conducted and other, I'm sure, other actions taken to bring about more peace and stability in the country.

MARGARET WARNER:

Do you think this scenario will unfold in a peaceful manner, Steve Morris?

STEPHEN MORRISON:

The next couple of days are going to be the decisive period because the Nigerians are building up their strength.

MARGARET WARNER:

You're talking about the peacekeepers.

STEPHEN MORRISON:

On the peacekeepers. On the security and the political transition, the next several days are going to be critical. If they can get through that without a major breakdown, then I think it becomes possible to imagine that you could see an interim government with a de facto trustee established with a very heavy U.N. role played in the reconstruction of the country. That full role of the U.N. has not been fully debated within the Security Council. But the ideas are out there, a very prominent diplomat has been appointed to represent Kofi Annan heading up that operation.

MARGARET WARNER:

If it were to break down, where would the breakdown come? What would be the source? Are you talking about the rebels resuming the fighting; are you talking about the Taylor loyalists themselves taking matters into their own hands?

STEPHEN MORRISON:

It could come in any number of directions. Taylor has exited. He had no fewer than three major militias totaling five, six thousand fighters, reasonably well equipped. They're running low on ammunition. They live by plunder and by violent coercion. What happens to them? Then you have the major insurgent group, another three or four thousand minimum who control the port, who block access to humanitarian aid, who block access for medicines and other things to come through. Will they push back or will they stand their ground and attack the Nigerians as the Nigerians try to assert control in that area? You only have 700 Nigerians on the ground. They have no more than four or five workable armored vehicles at their disposal. We'll see what happens.

MARGARET WARNER:

Ambassador Jett, what do you think could unfold?

DENNIS JETT:

Well I'm not so sure it's the next few days that are so critical. Let's not forget that the Nigerians were on the ground for nine years in Liberia. They arrived in August 1990 and didn't leave in October of '99 and then they left Charles Taylor in charge. All during that time there was a series of political agreements that were struck and no sooner…or the ink wasn't even dry before the parties who were dissatisfied with the agreement violated them and returned to the fighting. And all the factions entering that process used peace as an opportunity to rearm. So I see….

MARGARET WARNER:

But how do you….

DENNIS JETT:

…Not very optimistic frankly because the U.N. will be there as a collection of bureaucrats trying to impose order and create the conditions for a political solution. The Nigerians who have consistently failed throughout the '90s, who simply aren't professional enough or viewed as being impartial enough to be an effective peacekeeping force will be there. And no one… in essence you'll have a process without adult supervision – adult supervision in the sense of somebody who is willing to impose a peace if the one or other factions decide to go back to war. That's what's missing, and that's why it's just a question of time in my view before fighting resumes.

MARGARET WARNER:

How do you read the rebels' intentions here, Mr. Fomunyoh?

CHRIS FOMUNYOH:

You know, I know we all are very cautious about what could happen in the next few weeks or months in Liberia. But I'm not as pessimistic in terms of a number of factors that are there now that were not there in the mid 90s. For example, we know that ECOWAS is going to come up with at least 5,000 troops. There's also talk about other countries volunteering troops, South Africa, Namibia, even Morocco. Secondly, the fact that the former commander in chief, Charles Taylor has an international indictment hanging over his head, and I think that his departure is going to de-motivate what is left of his troops. There's no reason fighting if the person that we're fighting for is being indicted and will be prosecuted. I think that's still an issue that needs to be resolved.

MARGARET WARNER:

If fighting were to resume, do you think that the peacekeepers on the ground now could handle the situation or do you agree with Mr. Morrison, they're really outmanned, outgunned?

CHRIS FOMUNYOH:

I'm not so certain whether they're operating under a Chapter 6 or a Chapter 7 mandate which would allow them to fight back. But my sense, I just came back from the region and talked to a lot of defense ministers from West Africa as well as a lot of chiefs. I think they're willing… they have the backbone and they're willing to do it. We have to keep in mind also that the troops, most of the troops that are going in now especially from Nigeria are troops that were recently trained by the U.S. Military under Operation Focus Relief. I think that's more professionalism now than we saw with the Nigerian troops in the mid '90s.

MARGARET WARNER:

Mr. Morrison, that of course raises the issue of the American role. You've got some 5,000 marines and sailors sitting off shore but the government or the U.S. Government spokesman said today they have no plans to go ashore. What will be their role? Could they be drawn in if disorder reigns again?

STEPHEN MORRISON:

Our role right now to provide a minimal liaison function in planning and coordination on the ground and to provide an extraction force should things deteriorate precipitously. If the Nigerians get themselves into severe trouble, we would…we have committed to help extract them from such a dangerous situation. Beyond that, it's quite uncertain. If we get into a free fall, it's not clear what the next plan is as to recovery. And the United States has been very loath to make a commitment beyond that. And that seems to be a pretty hard line, a pretty hardened position of the administration. It wasn't quite the case three or four weeks ago.

MARGARET WARNER:

What makes you think that?

STEPHEN MORRISON:

I think they've looked at the situation internally and judged that they don't want to commit, and such under such uncertainty. I think Iraq weighs very heavily. I think the domestic climate in the United States, the opinion climate vis-à-vis Liberia is very mixed so that there's not a ground swell moving one direction or the other so they proceeded in this direction.

MARGARET WARNER:

But, Ambassador Jett, Colin Powell said this afternoon that at least the commander of those troops offshore was going to go on shore and at least talk about how they open the port. How do you interpret that? Isn't it a fact that the status quo really isn't acceptable since all these hundreds of thousands of people are starving, that the humanitarian situation has to be shaken loose?

DENNIS JETT:

Well, I think getting the port open is key to getting humanitarian aid in. That's the cheapest, fastest, most efficient way to do it. You can fly it in but that's incredibly expensive. You have tens of thousands of people at risk of starvation. So you have to open the port for humanitarian aid. If the force commander goes ashore, him plus the seven marines that already have landed are a total of eight. I hate to keep repeating history, but in 1990 from June to August, we had a three-ship force off the coast. The only time they went in is when they sent in 237 marines to protect the embassy and to evacuate Americans and other foreigners.

In 1996, the same story; we sent in American troops only to evacuate Americans and others. There was a recent evacuation a couple of months ago in which it was largely conducted by the French. So we have shown over and over and over again that we're simply not interested enough in Liberia to put our troops in harm's way to impose a peace.

As for the peacekeeping troops, they're operating under Chapter 7, which means they can not only defend themselves but use force to impose their mandate. But they have to be willing to fight. We saw in the neighboring Sierra Leone that the peacekeeping force came to the brink of total collapse and chaos there because the troops weren't even will to go defend themselves. There were a few that acquitted themselves well, the Indian troops mainly, but most of the African forces simply turned over their weapons and their APCs and everything else to the rebels in Sierra Leone. The British went in with a thousand troops, set the situation straight and imposed order and now Sierra Leone is a peacekeeping success story. That's what's not happening in Liberia. That's why, ultimately, I think we're facing failure.

MARGARET WARNER:

All right. On that pessimistic note we have to end it. Thank you all three.