Mideast experts analyze chances of Gaza peace proposal advancing

Nick Schifrin:

Hussein, let me start with you.

Hussein Ibish, Senior Resident Scholar, Arab Gulf States Institute:

Sure.

Nick Schifrin:

You just heard at the end there President Trump said that Arab countries would go in and disarm Hamas if Hamas did not disarm itself. Is that possible?

Hussein Ibish:

No one is going to do this dirty work. No one is going to clean up Israel's mess for it or Hamas' mess. These are the two parties that have created the reality in Gaza. There is no third party that's going to come in and resolve it to everyone else's satisfaction.

So that's a fantasy. And it's a fantasy that's existed from day one. But people should abandon that fantasy because it's not going to happen.

Nick Schifrin:

Abandon that fantasy?

David Makovsky, Senior Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy: Look, I think where Hussein and I agree is, we don't see, A, Hamas voluntarily disarming. They rule through weapons like AK-47s and the like.

Hussein Ibish:

Yes.

David Makovsky:

And we also agree that no international stabilization force, peacekeepers, call them whatever you will -- and I talk to Arab officials all the time and say, David, we're not going in there. It's dangerous.

Hussein Ibish:

Yes.

David Makovsky:

So it's basically down to Israel. Or I was in Ramallah just recently. I just came back from the West Bank and Israel. And the Palestinian Authority is willing to go in right now. This government doesn't want it.

Hussein Ibish:

That's the answer, though. It's other Palestinians can disarm Hamas, but nobody else.

Nick Schifrin:

But, of course, Israel rejects the Palestinian Authority going in, right?

Hussein Ibish:

Absolutely. Right. And, in fact, Israel prefers to deal with Hamas than the P.A., because if you have a deranged enemy with an impossible goal like Hamas, that's kind of good for you.

If you regard all Palestinians as the enemy, much more dangerous is the Palestinian Authority, which wants a small Palestinian state in the West Bank alongside Israel. That's an achievable goal. And that's scary for the Israelis.

Nick Schifrin:

David Makovsky, let me ask you this. I mean, you guys have been saying that no one will go in and do this. Israel and Hamas have to do this themselves.

But does Israel want to go to the phase two?

David Makovsky:

Yes.

Nick Schifrin:

And, frankly, does Hamas want? Or are they both satisfied with the status quo? And are they fearful of taking that next step?

David Makovsky:

No, no, look, I think it's a very fair question.

And for our viewers, there's a lot of detail. So, I mean, I think what we're looking at in here, Hussein and I might disagree, I see two Gazas right now. I see the yellow line, meaning within the Green Zone, where there's basically no Hamas or -- of substantial numbers.

Nick Schifrin:

This is basically east or south of that...

(Crosstalk)

David Makovsky:

Right, whatever you want to call that.

Nick Schifrin:

Israeli-controlled Gaza.

Hussein Ibish:

Exactly.

David Makovsky:

Right, Israeli-controlled, which is 53 percent.

And, there, you could see some construction in Rafah. And you can envisage things getting better. The red zone, though, is where 90 percent of the Gazans actually live and, I should say, where almost all the trucks are going on the humanitarian side, 4,200 a week. That's 600 a day.

I remember we used to talk about 100 trucks during the war. Now there's 600 a day. But Hamas is there. And I feel the only ones are either Israel or the Palestinian Authority.

Hussein Ibish:

That's it.

David Makovsky:

Hussein thinks that Israel's fine.

(Crosstalk)

David Makovsky:

No, that Israel can live with that. And I am not as certain as...

(Crosstalk)

Nick Schifrin:

So you think Israel doesn't want the status quo?

(Crosstalk)

David Makovsky:

No, I think they give this until March. They will say we gave this a half-a-year for the second Gaza, the red zone Gaza. We're fine with the green zone Gaza. We will do whatever Trump wants. We will do whatever you want.

But on the Hamas Gaza, if they don't disarm by March, when the weather starts getting better, Israel's going to start going in there in slices militarily.

Hussein Ibish:

I actually agree with that. I think that's right.

But, again, we're going to be back in the same unwinnable war. Israel's not going to do better in phase five of this war than they did in the first four phases, that I count anyway. And now they're controlling not 53 percent, 58 percent. Almost all of the fertile land in Gaza is controlled by Israel.

But almost all the Palestinians are huddled together on these sandy beaches, where there's nothing. And it's not a sustainable reality for any of the three parties, for the Palestinian people, not at all. For Israel, as David said, they're not going to be satisfied. And in the end, Hamas is not going to be happy either.

So this war is likely to start again, especially if the Israeli election is already over. I'm not sure Netanyahu wants...

(Crosstalk)

Nick Schifrin:

... has to be by the fall of 2026, right.

Hussein Ibish:

By October, but more likely by May or something, June.

(Crosstalk)

Hussein Ibish:

I'm not sure Netanyahu wants to go into the election pursuing an unpopular war.

David Makovsky:

Well, the...

Nick Schifrin:

No, no, has Israel and Hamas -- and let me ask you first, David Makovsky.

Have Israel and Hamas lived up to the cease-fire so far?

David Makovsky:

OK, I think, in the big picture, and we may have some disagreements, Israel released 250 people convicted in courts for killing Israelis. That was a big deal -- of life sentences -- 1,700 detainees, 4,200 trucks a week, which was critical so people could have food at least, even though it's inadequate, as your setup piece says, because it's winter there.

So, I mean, I don't -- but I think that those to me were some of the big ticket issues. Are there things like the Rafah Crossing? It's a very fragile cease-fire. There are there all sorts of complaints about violations on all sides.

But I think, in the big picture, yes. I just think the disarmament issue is not a footnote. It's central. If there's going to be a hope for the Gaza people, Hamas has got to get out of the way. And I don't see who's getting them out of the way. I disagree respectfully with the president that 59 countries are going to wipe them out.

And I just don't think that happens. And you want to solve these things peacefully if you can. But I think Hamas' view is, in the Middle East, the people who fire the shots call the shots, and they fire the shots. So, no one is going to displace them.

(Crosstalk)

Nick Schifrin:

Hussein Ibish, sorry. Have Israel, have Hamas lived up to the cease-fire?

Hussein Ibish:

Well, I was about to address that.

No, not really, because the key part of the cease-fire is stopping firing, ceasing firing. And that hasn't happened. Hamas has been doing incursions, but Israel has been keeping up a barrage of seven to nine people a day killed. And it's over 400. At least 80 of them are children. That's not a cease-fire.

In any other situation, you would say the war continues to bleed these people. It's only in comparison to the 90 a day or so that we had before. So I would say the answer is no. And the only alternative to Hamas is a Palestinian one. And it's the one thing I know Netanyahu is never going to agree to.

Nick Schifrin:

David Makovsky, just very quickly, I want to bring up what I brought up at the end of the piece. That is this plan to rebuild Rafah, which you mentioned, Eastern Gaza, as a way to incentivize Palestinians, not only to move, to leave their land right now, which will remain unconstructed, and move across the yellow line and disarm for money.

We only have about 40 seconds left. Is that a realm of possibility that that could actually work?

David Makovsky:

I don't think it will in significant terms.

Like, 90 percent of the Gazans right now are on the Hamas side of the yellow line.

Hussein Ibish:

Right.

David Makovsky:

What did we say, whatever, 43 percent of the West Bank -- 50 -- 47 percent of the West Bank -- of Gaza. Excuse me.

I don't see the Gazans leaving their land for a promise on the other side, when all the main cities are on the Hamas side. So that's why, to me, this was such a critical meeting in Mar-a-Lago. Is there a meeting of the minds about the red zone, about the Hamas side? Everything else, you could work around.

(Crosstalk)

Hussein Ibish:

This solution is not nonstarter. It's not going to happen. The answer is no to your question. The answer is, no, that's not going to work.

And neither is the status quo. So I'm afraid a return to war is very likely.

Nick Schifrin:

We will have to leave it there.

Hussein Ibish, David Makovsky, thanks to all -- to both of you.

Hussein Ibish:

Thank you so much.

David Makovsky:

Thank you.

Nick Schifrin:

Thank you.

Hussein Ibish:

Great to be with you.