Mideast experts analyze state of Iran war and diplomatic efforts to end it

John Yang:

We return now to the state of the war with Iran and the diplomatic efforts to end it.

For that, we get two perspectives. Ray Takeyh was a -- is a senior State Department adviser on Iran during the Obama administration. He's now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He was born and raised in Iran, but moved to the United States just after the revolution in 1979.

And Alan Eyre served on the U.S. government for four decades. He was part of the Obama administration's negotiating team for the Iran nuclear deal, which President Trump pulled out of in 2018. He's now at the Middle East Institute.

Alan, I'd like to start with you.

We have seen this exchange of proposals, 15 points from the United States, five points from Iraq. What's -- from Iran. What's going on here?

Alan Eyre, Middle East Institute:

Well, I think each side is floating its maximalist red lines, so the other side is up to date on what it would take to begin to wind down this war.

The bad news is that these red lines are even farther apart than they were before the war started. So, no direct negotiations, but messages are being passed.

John Yang:

Ray, would do you -- how do you see it?

Ray Takeyh, Former State Department Official:

I think Alan is right that, at this particular point, a diplomatic agreement is not apparent, given how far apart these points are.

But the very fact that both parties are offering points of negotiations, however maximalist or even absurd they may be, perhaps indicates a propensity to look for some sort of an off-ramp in an impasse that they both find themselves.

John Yang:

Alan, you say there's unlikely to be a diplomatic solution, but are they at least going to talk and negotiate?

Alan Eyre:

Oh, there won't be direct negotiations. I find that highly improbable. The foreign minister of Iran just today said direct negotiations are out of the question, and there won't be a cease-fire because Iran loses momentum if they have a cease-fire and then negotiate.

So the fight will continue and messages will continue to be passed. The problem is, is, the economies are going to get a lot worse faster than the two sides will get closer to an agreement. So the dynamic is not a favorable one.

John Yang:

Ray, do you see these messages passing back and forth narrowing the gap?

Ray Takeyh:

I'm not sure if they're narrowing a gap in terms of resolution of the conflict, but the president, President Trump, has the capability of presenting almost anything as a victory.

And he does have a story to tell. So the very fact of negotiations taking place can potentially be a prelude to some sort of a cease-fire, or at the very least, curb escalation, such as attacking Iran's power infrastructure. That would be humanitarian catastrophe.

John Yang:

Alan, by all accounts and by what we see, that Iran is getting pummeled by this United States bombing, United States and Israeli bombing.

Among the demands that Iran is making, according to reports, are that Israel and the United States stopped the attacks before they enter into negotiations. And Iran says it will end the war at a time of their choosing. What does this say about Iran? I mean, are they able to withstand this assault?

Alan Eyre:

Easily. I mean, in a way, paradoxically, Iran is winning, because they're taking what the U.S. is throwing at it and maintaining a choke hold on the Strait of Hormuz. So this is Iran's plan, to take a beating, but still maintain enough kinetic ability to threaten the strait and also to escalate if the U.S. chooses to escalate.

So, the status quo, to a large part, is on Iran's side, because this economic situation is only going to get worse as long as ships are not passing through the strait.

John Yang:

Status quo on Iran's side, Ray. What do you think?

Ray Takeyh:

I don't think -- here, I disagree with Alan, I don't think Iran is winning. Its conventional military capability has been blown up, almost to the point of obsolescence. Its nuclear programs is buried in rubble.

And all the problems that Iran had before this war, which were unimaginable in terms of economic, ecology and popular uprising, all those problems have even worsened. This is not a formula for success for a regime whose support base is narrow and has the skies to open to American and Israeli attack almost at the time of their choosing.

John Yang:

Alan, from the United States' perspective or the United States' side, what's been accomplished?

Alan Eyre:

Well, again, you can pick among President Trump's statements as to the purpose of the war, but we have for now destroyed Iran's ability to project power beyond its own borders.

So, if I were President Trump, I would take that as a win and walk away. The problem is, we have increased Iran's desire to project power passed it borders, in other words, to have effective strategic deterrence, and now Iran has found a new possible way of strategic deterrence, which is controlling the Strait of Hormuz.

So that's where we stand today.

John Yang:

Ray, both the Israelis and the president have said that they want regime change. They're hoping that the Iranians will rise up after this pummeling that they're getting. How likely do you think that's to happen?

Ray Takeyh:

The theory of the case for the Israelis, and sometimes, as Alan said, the Americans, is that the regime's coercive apparatus, the security services, have been so degraded that when, an opposition movement reemerges, and I think it inevitably will, it will have a greater chance of success than it did previously.

There is something to that. I am not prepared to reject it. It has not been tested, but the Islamic Republic will face another protest movement, and we will see if it still has the capacity to conduct the killing spree like it did last time. The Israelis and many Americans are hoping that it will not.

It remains to be seen, but I don't think the logic of that argument should be dismissed.

John Yang:

Alan, how do you see this ending?

Alan Eyre:

I see this ending as I don't think we will get a negotiated solution. I think the U.S. will declare victory and in effect just stop the kinetic attacks and convince Israel to stop.

Iran will continue for a little while longer and then there will be a new modus vivendi worked out in terms of the Strait of Hormuz with the Gulf allies. So it'll be a slow and ugly ending, and the Middle East and the Gulf will never go back to the way it was before.

John Yang:

Ray, what about you? How do you see this ending?

Ray Takeyh:

I largely agree with Alan that the status quo ante in the Gulf will not be the same. The Iranians have proven that, with primitive technology, they can obstruct the critical passageway in terms of maritime commerce, in terms of global commerce.

So the results of this war will be messy, but coming out of this war, Iran will be in very difficult shape.

John Yang:

Gentlemen, we got to leave it there. Ray Takeyh and Alan Eyre, thank you both very much.

Ray Takeyh:

Thank you.

Alan Eyre:

Thank you.